Q4 GDP 2011 was revised from 2.8% to 3.0%.. Here is the original BEA GDP report. Less imports than originally estimated gave the biggest boost to the Q4 GDP revision. Quarterly GDP is reported annualized.
The National Association of Realtors released their pending home sales for January 2012 yesterday. Beware of revisions, we've seen irrational exuberance on pending home sales before.
The S&P Case Shiller home price index shows a -4.0% decline from a year ago over 20 metropolitan housing markets and a -3.9% decline for the top 10 housing markets from December 2010. Home prices are back to early 2003 levels and new index lows. S&P itself has woken up and realized home prices have not yet reached a bottom.
New Orders in Durable Goods, advance report, dropped -4.0% for January 2012. December durable goods new orders jumped by 3.2%, revised. While some will blame a business tax credit expiration, this report is across the board bad news.
Déjà vu, it's 2008 all over again. Why are gas prices soaring through the roof?
Some are revisiting oil speculation as the culprit. Commodity futures speculation always pops up in the public discourse the minute gas prices go above $3.65, yet nothing ever seems to come of it.
Our usual stupid political tricks, from tapping the strategic oil reserve to the GOP blaming Obama for gas prices, are in full swing. Isn't this all getting rather old? Wouldn't we all just like a stable price fluctuation in a key critical commodity upon which our economy and our empty pockets depend?
We know one thing, $5 gas can literally kill economic recovery. Oil shocks are correlated to recessions, as James Hamilton points out as do others. Below is a quarterly historical graph of real GDP percent change vs. the West Texas Intermediate average Oil Price. Notice the spikes in oil price and the grey recession bars.
In January, New Residential Single Family Home Sales decreased by -0.9%, or 321,000 annualized sales. This report has a ±16.6% monthly margin of error. December single family home sales were significantly revised, from 307,0000 to 324,000 new homes, a +5.4% revision.
Initial weekly unemployment claims for the week ending on February 18th, 2012 were 351,000. The DOL reports this as unchanged from last week. The previous week was revised, from 348,000 to 351,000, an increase of 3,000.
The National Association of Realtors' January 2012 existing home sales statistics show an annualized 4.3% monthly increase in total existing homes sales from December. Annualized gives what the yearly level and rate would be if the current month's rate was applied to an entire year. The change in existing home sales from this time last year was 0.7%.
Another financial crisis, a prolonged recession, or changing political ideologies could cause a re-examination of the status quo and lead to a decision to break up the big banks. If that should happen, policy makers could well take another look at the Public Utility Holding Company Act of 1935 as a model for accomplishing such a breakup over a limited time span of, say, seven years. The political mood is already shifting. The 1980s mantras -- government regulation as problematic, free-market competition as an unquestioned good, financial engineering as worthwhile innovation and finance as more important than commercial and industrial enterprise -- are now being reconsidered. This could lead to a more responsible balance between government, finance and industry. Dodd-Frank, despite its length and complexity, is only the beginning of real regulatory reform. It's a continuation of the complexity of already overly complex financial and regulatory systems. What we need is a simple regulatory scheme to create a simpler banking system.
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