July 2013

Durable Goods 4.2% Headline Increase Belies Bad News

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders increased by 4.2% for June 2013.  While the headline number sounds great, not so fast, the gains are on volatile aircraft new orders.  Shipments did not change.   Aircraft and parts new orders from the non-defense sector increased 31.4%.  Aircraft & parts from the defense sector increased 18.7%.   Excluding all transportation, which includes aircraft, new orders came in at zero.  In other words, without transportation new orders didn't grow at all.

Food Stamps: Profits from Poor at Risk

Consider the irony of companies like Walmart that economically forces their employees to apply for food stamps, and then profits from their food stamp dollars. That's not more public welfare, that's more corporate welfare. But now those profits are at risk, because the GOP's current version of a farm bill includes ZERO for food stamps --- meaning, 1 in 6 Americans could also go hungry.

New Home Sales Increase 8.3% for June 2013

June New Residential Single Family Home Sales increased 8.3% to 497,000 in annualized sales.  This change is well within the statistical error margin of ±20.5%.   New Single Family Housing inventory is at a 3.9 month supply low.  New single family home sales are now 38.1% above June 2012 levels, but this figure has a ±22.0% margin of error.

Over 15% of America was on Food Stamps in April 2013

Food stamp usage has leveled off in growth yet is still alarmingly high.   As of April 2013, 47,548,694 people were on food stamps.  That is 1 out of every 6.64 persons in the United States.  This means that 15.05% of all people living in America are on food assistance.   The United States population in middle of April 2013 was 315,928,000 and this figure includes everyone, including Americans overseas.  Food stamp usage has increased 2.8% from April 2012.

Existing Home Sales Drop -1.2% for June 2013

The NAR reported existing home sales declined -1.2% from last month and May figures were revised down by 40,000 annualized units.  The revision gives a 3.4% monthly May gain instead of the 4.2% originally reported.   Inventories are still a very tight 5.2 months of supply, a 4.0% increase from last month's five month supply and a -18.8% annual drop in supply for existing sales demand.

The Last Word on Social Security Disability

Lies, damn lies, and statistics --- the mainstream media and most bloggers refuse to (or are unable to) to get the numbers correct on Social Security disability. It's no wonder they are all saying different things, and why many of us (including myself) were so confused about the accuracy of SSDI statistics. There also appears to be a lot of ideological spin in everyone's reporting --- so I'd like to help clarify a few things.