December 2013

The Late, Great Taper Starts With Low Interest Rates as Far as the Eye Can See

Wall Street was all aghast that their quantitative easing was about to disappear.  The FOMC decided to taper in January and now stocks soar.  Why?  Because the taper is minimal and the FOMC announced the federal funds rate will remain an effective zero for much longer than previously estimated.

A Tax Loophole For the Rich So Wide It Even Has a Name

We've all heard about that terrible death tax, hated by the super rich across America.  This is the inheritance tax where Uncle Sam is supposed to get 40% of the estate that is passed onto heirs.  The reality is this tax is not paid unless someone has a very poor financial planner and attorney.  There is a loophole in the law which allows billionaires and their heirs to pay nothing in taxes on inheritance.

Labor Productivity Soars While Real Wages Languish in Q3 2013

The BLS Productivity & Costs report for Q3 2013 shows labor productivity increased a whopping annualized 3.0%.   This is the largest increase in productivity since Q4 2009.  Output increased 4.7% and hours worked increased 1.7%.  Unit Labor costs dropped by -1.4% in Q3 2013.  The reason labor productivity surged was increased economic output while worker hours did not increase as much.

Congressional Scrooges Deny Unemployment Benefit Extension

The latest budget deal does not extend unemployment benefits for some of the long term unemployed.   This means without some Congressional action, unemployment benefits will only be available for 26 weeks in 2014.  The current average time to be officially unemployed is 37.2 weeks, far exceeding the time one can receive regular unemployment insurance benefits in most states.

Employment Stats Misleading

The payroll jobs report for November from the Bureau of Labor Statistics says that the US economy created 203,000 jobs in November. As it takes about 130,000 new jobs each month to keep up with population growth, if the payroll report is correct, then most of the new jobs would have been used up keeping the unemployment rate constant for the growth in the population of working age persons, and about 70,000 of the jobs would have slightly reduced the rate of unemployment.

Volcker Rule Gets Poor Marks Out of the Box

What is the Volcker rule?  The headlines in the press describe a nebulously defined financial regulation as being the second coming of financial reform  Yet the only thing clear about the Volcker rule is who it is named after, former Federal Reserve chair Paul Volcker.  The Volcker rule was a last minute financial regulation rule in an attempt to stop speculative trading by Wall Street.  It has been politicized, lobbied against, delayed, watered down and modified heavily.

JOLTS Report Shows Labor Market Static

The BLS JOLTS report, or Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey shows there are 2.9 official unemployed per job opening for October 2013.  The headlines blare job openings are at the highest level in five years, but that's not the real story as hiring is way below pre-recession levels.   Job openings have increased 80% from July 2009, while hires have only increased 24% from the same time period.

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