February 2015

Industrial Production Expands to Mediocre Growth for January 2014

The Federal Reserve Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization report shows industrial production gained 0.2% in January.   There were also revisions back to August with all but one month revised downward.   December was revised to a -0.3% decline and November's blow out was toned down to 1.1% growth increase.  Manufacturing alone grew by 0.2% and utilities jumped up 2.3% in January on weather.

Rig Count Keeps Falling, Oil Production and Crude Inventories Keep Rising

US oil and gas drilling operations continued to shut down at an unprecedented rate last week, as Baker Hughes reported the rig count on February 13th was at 1358, down by a record 98 rigs from February 6th, with oil rigs down 84 to 1056, gas rigs down 14 to 300, and rigs classified as miscellaneous unchanged at 2.  This follows last week's report when total US drilling rigs in use fell by 87,

Gauging the Impact of December Inventories on 4th Quarter GDP Revisions

Two more reports from last week that we want to look at were on December sales and inventories for different sectors of the economy.  We want to know how they might affect 4th quarter GDP revisions.  Here's a simplistic way to think about how sales and inventories in the economy affect GDP: If the economy consumes 10 apples at a dollar a piece in November, and 11 apples at 90 cents each in December, sales have gone down by 1% in December but monthly GDP is up 10%.  If there are 10 apples left on the shelf in both months, reported inventories will go down 10% in December, but

Retail Sales Fall 0.8% on Drop in Gasoline Prices

Retail sales started the new year down, but the drop in sales was due to lower gasoline prices.  Specifically, the Advance Retail Sales Report for January (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that our total seasonally adjusted retail and food services sales were at $439.8 billion in January, which was a decrease of 0.8% (±0.5%) from the December sales of $443.3 billion, but 3.3 percent (±0.9%) above sales in January of last year.  December's sales were revised up by less than 0.1%, from $442.9 billion,

Feed the Rich and Starve the Poor (Cont.)

It didn't take long before the new GOP House began passing a series of deficit-hiking tax cuts that will primarily help the rich at the expense of everybody else. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-Wis.), the new chairman of the Ways and Means Committee (which writes tax legislation), wants to make some previous tax breaks permanent — arguing that Congress has previously extended certain tax breaks before.

January's Jobs Report Shows Strong Payroll Growth for 2014

The BLS employment report is another good showing for payroll jobs as growth was 257,000.  January is the month of revisions and November 2014 is now a 423,000 jobs added blowout with December 2014 not far behind with 329,000 jobs added.  We're on year eight after the start of the great recession and 2014 is finally when America started seeing some jobs growth.

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