August 2015

A Ruling Class Hissy Fit

The reaction of the ruling elite and their minions in official conservadom to the Donald Trump surge is best characterized as a hissy fit, an extended temper tantrum that the GOP base isn’t doing what they want them to. The elite and their gatekeepers can’t seem to figure out why Trump is surging and why the peons who support him won’t listen to their betters. What is more puzzling is why they didn’t see this coming and why it hasn’t happen sooner. The writing has been on the wall for a while.

Q2 GDP Soars With 3.7% Growth

Q2 GDP has been significantly revised upward from 2.3% to 3.7%.  Investment was dramatically revised upward as was spending by state and local governments.  Consumer spending was a healthy 57.2% of real GDP.  Also surprising was a lack of upward revisions in imports.  Regardless, that is a 1.37 percentage point GDP revision, a 59% change from the advance report.

Durable Goods Up 2.0% for July

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders shot up by 2.0% in July.  June showed a whopping 4.1% new orders increase.  Core capital goods, showed a 2.2% monthly gain.  Without transportation new orders, which includes aircraft, durable goods new orders would have increased by 0.6%.  Motor vehicles & parts new orders gained 4.0% for the month.


A Strategy for Anti-Establishment Conservatives

I believe that Jeb Bush’s campaign is dead in the water. His polling trajectory does not bode well for him. He is perceived as a moderate in general and is wrong on some issues in particular that are important to the GOP base, such as immigration and Common Core, but his bigger problem is that he simply doesn’t inspire enthusiasm in anyone. People who support someone other than Bush generally don’t hate Bush, they just don’t want him to be the nominee. And therein lies the rub. People don’t hate Bush, but they don’t love him either.

Oil Industry Pushes to End the Ban on Oil Exports as Imports Hit High for the Year

US crude oil output fell this past week, but our oil imports were the highest since early April, and with a major refinery idled, that unexpectedly led to the largest increase in our inventories of oil in storage in 4 months, precipitating yet a further crash in the price of oil. 

The GOP Plan to Stiff Millennials on Social Security

According to Pew Research, this year the Millennial generation (ages 18 to 34 in 2015) is projected to surpass the Baby Boom generation (ages 51 to 69) as the nation’s largest living generation — with 75.3 million Millennials vs. 74.9 million Boomers. The Gen X population (ages 35 to 50 in 2015) is also projected to outnumber the Boomers by 2028. Where will Social Security be for them when they retire?

CPI Increases Only 0.1% for July, From a Year Ago Up Only 0.2%

The Consumer Price Index increased 0.1% for July, which is very mild.  This is in spite of a 0.9% increase in gasoline prices.  Energy overall only increased 0.1%.  Inflation without food or energy prices considered increased 0.1% for the month even with a 0.4% shelter cost increase.  From a year ago overall inflation has increased 0.2%, which is very low.

Donald Trump vs. Davos Man

Coined by political scientist Samuel P. Huntington, the term Davos Man was meant to refer to members of the global elite who view themselves as completely international. They have no need for the term "nationality" and feel that governments are merely shadows of time past to be used as facilitators in their global operations. ~ Akash Arasu