January 2017

December Retail Sales Soar on Autos

December 2016 retail sales increased by 0.6% and are up a whopping 4.1% from a year ago.  November's retail sales were revised to a 0.2% monthly increase.  The reason for December's gain were automobile sales, online sales and gas.  Auto sales blew through the roof at a 2.4% monthly increase and gas did also on rising prices.  Without autos & parts sales, retail sales would have increased only 0.2% for the month.

Producer Prices Up 0.3% in December, Unprocessed Goods Spike 8.3%

The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.3% in December as prices for finished wholesale goods increased 0.7%, while margins of final services providers increased by 0.1%.  This followed a November report that indicated the overall PPI had increased 0.4%, with prices for finished goods up 0.2% while final demand for services rose 0.5%, and an October report that indicated the PPI was unchanged, with prices for finished goods up 0.4% while final demand for services fell 0.3%.

December Unemployment Report Looks Static

The December 2016 unemployment report looks almost static as changes in most of the statistics are small.  The unemployment rate ticked up by 0.1% to 4.7%.  Those employed increased by 63,000 a very small monthly number.  Those unemployed monthly change was also relatively small.  Even those dropping out of the labor force barely registered for the month.

Further Deterioration of Trade Deficit in November Means A Bigger Hit to 4th Quarter GDP

The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for November indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by $2.88 billion to $45.24 billion in November from a revised October deficit of $42.36 billion.

The World is Nuanced

History is nuanced. The connections between what happened historically and the way things are now, are nuanced. Will anyone claim that President-Elect Trump has a nuanced understanding of the ways things are and the history of how they came to be that way?

Tweets are not nuanced. You can express a provocation in 140 characters or fewer, but you can’t express a concept, much less a nuanced concept. That’s why some people are tweeting in chains. But that too is a poor substitute for rational discourse.

Trumpen Proletarians Unite!

You have something to lose: your overtime!

Forgetful of the support of working class voters in the election, Mr. Trump will nominate an opponent of the Obama Administration’s new overtime rule, Mr. Andy Pudzer, for Secretary of Labor. The rule more than doubles, to $47,000, the salary threshold at which a worker can be considered overtime exempt based on job duties. It was set to go into effect later this year, subject to a challenge in the federal courts.

US gasoline production at record levels, but supplies are still dropping on record exports

Even with a record high in our gasoline production, the EIA reported that our gasoline supplies fell by 1,593,000 barrels to 227,143,000 barrels as of December 23rd. While our gasoline imports fell by 13,000 barrels per day to 434,000 barrels per day, our gasoline exports rose by 354,000 barrels per day to a record high of 1,149,000 barrels per day,

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