Blogs

Confessions of a Trade Negotiator's Mind

Submitted by on

Robert Cassidy is a former Clinton administration assistant trade representative responsible for the entry of China into the WTO and the China PNTR trade agreement.

Today he Confessed.

As the principal negotiator for the landmark market access agreement that led to China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), I have reflected on whether the agreements we negotiated really lived up to our expectations. A sober reflection has led me to conclude that those trade agreements did not

And of a Dangerous Mind?

New Trade Bill Introduced in the Senate

Submitted by on

A new trade bill has been introduced in the Senate. Hopefully this will not be yet another good piece of legislation that goes to committee to die.

According to Senator Sherrod Brown's Press Release:
The TRADE ACT would:

  • Require the Government Accountability Office to conduct a comprehensive review of existing trade agreements with an emphasis on economic results, enforcement and compliance, and an analysis of non-tariff provisions in trade agreements
  • Spell out standards for labor and environmental protections, food and product safety, national security exceptions, and remedies that must be included in new trade pacts
  • Set requirements with respect to public services, farm policy, investment, government procurement, and affordable medicines that have been incorporated in trade agreements

Countdown to $100 Oil ?!? (2): Asian subsidies crumbling

In a diary over the weekend entitled, Countdown to $100 Oil ?!? Subsidies, hoarding, and bailing out billionaires, I took the contrarian position that oil is more likely to re-cross to the downside the $100 a barrel price, before it hits $200 a barrel. I cited evidence of hoarding on tankers, the Fed's realization that destroying the dollar might be a bad thing, and most of all, intense pressure being applied to Asian governments' subsidies of consumer oil prices in support of that position.
Today, with the price of a barrel of oil at the moment at $123.75, comes fresh evidence that those oil subsidies are collapsing. It turns out the laws of supply and demand work on the other side of the globe too.

You better get used to $4 gas

Submitted by on

A news article came out yesterday that received almost no attention. Yet its significance cannot be overstated to those still hoping for a large drop in energy prices.

Hedge-fund managers and speculators reduced bets on higher oil prices by 80 percent since July as crude futures rose to records and U.S. regulators started investigating trading, government data show.

So-called speculative net long positions fell to 25,867 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange in the week ended May 27 from a record 127,491 on July 31, according to a U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission report on May 30.

Quite simply, this destroys every single sound bite you've heard out of Washington and the mainstream news media over why energy prices are so high.

The Enron Loophole

Submitted by on

You hear a lot of buzz words these days about shady deals and speculation on oil futures. So, what exactly is this Enron Loophole so many refer to which allows all of this trading on energy to go on with no accountability or regulation?

From Professor Greenburger:

it has been widely understood that, unless properly regulated, futures markets are easily subject to distorting the economic fundamentals of price discovery (i.e., cause the paying of unnecessarily higher or lower prices) through excessive speculation, fraud, or manipulation.

Buy one home, get another one FREE!

Submitted by on

If there was ever a sign that the housing market was nowhere near a bottom, this has got to be it. We aren't talking about Detroit or Cleveland here. This is San Diego. We aren't talking about some slumlord's shack. These are new homes.

Am I pointing this out because it is a great deal? Not even close. This is a clear sign that home prices will fall much further.
Allow me to explain.

No matter how bad you've heard the housing market is, the truth is much worse.

Countdown to $100 Oil?!? Subsidies, Hoarding, and Bailing out Billionaires

I was in the midst of writing a diary about how there aren't "2 Americas", a la John Edwards, but 3, when it became clear that so much information has become available this week concerning the forces affecting Americans' demand for oil, that it demanded its own diary. Even if the world has reached the plateau of "Peak Oil" and supplies will gradually be rationed at higher and higher prices, there are going to be booms and busts along the way. I'm here to tell you that the evidence suggests that there has been a speculative boom in the last 6-9 months and we may shortly see a bust, echoing the sudden decline of oil from $80 to $55 a barrel just before the 2006 elections.

Incomes and Spending Declined in April

Submitted by on

Average (not median) inflation-adjusted incomes and spending declined in April as average per capita disposable incomes fell back to levels of last summer.

 

Today’s BEA report on personal incomes for April shows that total PRICE ADJUSTED incomes fell -0.1% as sharp declines in total real compensation of -0.4% and real proprietor’s incomes of -0.3% were only partially offset by a remarkable spike in real rental income, up 12.7%, and government unemployment insurance payments, up 3.7%.

Beware analysts, media and politicians that (still!) ignore the effects of inflation on incomes and spending. Prices rose 0.23% in April.

Why Soros is wrong and the Morons are right

In the diary below this, my esteemed co-contributor midtowng argues that "we are facing the most serious recession of our lifetime." He notes that while he might be ignored, you ought to pay attention to George Soros, and belittles the politicians and other morons (I guess that would include me) who have argued that this recession might be over by election day.
In the spirit of economic debate on this site, here's what I believe he is overlooking:

1. Soros may be a great currency trader and social commentator but...

"The global capitalist system… is coming apart at the seams". So declared capitalist and arch-speculator George Soros before a US congressional enquiry...*. He has since expanded on this in a book entitled The Crisis of Global Capitalism. What has he in mind?

'We face the most serious recession of our lifetime'

Submitted by on

Billionaire investor George Soros didn't mince words yesterday.

"This is a period of wealth destruction. The people who make money will be few and far between. There will be a lot more money lost than made.
"I think this is probably more serious than anything in our lifetime," he says. In short, his feeling is that the United States and Britain are facing a recession of a scale greater than the early-1990s, greater even than the 1970s.

If it was someone other than Soros that was saying this (someone like me, for instance), you could probably ignore these sorts of warnings. There is always someone who will yell, "The End Is Near!"

Pages