Disclaimer: Not certain this is appropriate to EP. This is in the way of an introduction to some aspects of modeling and might be a bit arcane. It was inspired by a comment by RebelCapitalist and deals with econometric modeling. Enjoy.

Let's say we're interested in estimating the likelihood of some event x happening. x might be a loan default, upcoming regulations, getting hit by lightning, whatever. If we happen to know something about x, we can assign some probability P(x), play the numbers, and improve our chances of a good outcome. That's a big "if", and unless P = 1 we can still lose; still, that's the best we can do.

(This was originally posted on DailyKos, where it was suggested that I post this here. It has been slightly edited.)

Unless you've been living under a rock you know that we are in an economic death spiral and that things will get worse before they get better. All things will pass, however, and unless things crater for good, we will eventually pull out and begin economic recovery, in one year or three or ten, and we will be ... well, where will we be? What are our economic goals? What do we want from an economy?