deflation

Is This the End for Quantitative Easing (and Ben Bernanke Too)?

A week ago we outlined here how and why Ben Bernanke lost a significant vote in the recent Fed Open Market Committee meeting. The vote was not so much to launch immediately QE3 when QE2 comes to an end this month; it was to keep Quantitative Easing as a tool in the Fed’s arsenal of monetary weapons. So far, the mainstream media have not yet realized how significant a shift this is in Fed policy, but other bloggers are beginning to notice, and so is the stock market. Yesterday Chairman Bernanke spoke at the International Monetary Conference in Atlanta, at which he made no mention of Quantitative Easing now or down the road sometime. The stock market certainly reacted to this omission; having traded noticeably higher during the day, the Dow Jones industrial average closed down 19 points, losing most of its ground in the last fifteen minutes of the session when Bernanke began speaking.

Here are some perceptive comments about the speech from Cullen Roche on his Pragmatic Capitalism website:

*His speech was certainly market moving and as reports of the speech hit the wires the equity markets began to reverse on fears that QE3 is off the table. But there was a more interesting tone in his speech today than we’ve seen in the past. The Chairman was exceptionally defensive. In fact, the entire speech is basically an explanation as to why QE2 did not hurt the economy (of course it did).

Prickly Fed on QEII

By Numerian

 

This is the battlefield on which corporations and their customers are struggling for survival. If companies can make price increases stick, the consumer is going to bear the burden of inflation, and for a lot of consumers this can be the last gasp to bankruptcy.

Image:  Anonomyous

The Federal Reserve is on the defensive over its next round of Quantitative Easing, known as QE2. Over 20 distinguished economists and market analysts placed an ad yesterday in The Wall Street Journal urging the Fed to drop its plan to purchase $600 billion in Treasury securities over the next six months. Finance ministers around the world have deplored this policy for its tendency to generate global inflation and scupper the dollar on the foreign exchange markets. Even that noted financial expert Sarah Palin has published a Facebook criticism of the Fed’s “running the printing presses.”

Some Federal Reserve governors have warned about the potential inflationary implications of QE2, even though they voted for it. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke and NY Fed President William Dudley have been in the media during the past week, justifying their QE2 decision. If you analyze their comments carefully, you realize they haven’t been helping their cause.

The 3 Ds: Deflation, Debt & the Dollar

Warren Buffet warns on U.S. debt.

If we leave aside the war-impacted years of 1942 to 1946, the largest annual deficit the United States has incurred since 1920 was 6 percent of gross domestic product. This fiscal year, though, the deficit will rise to about 13 percent of G.D.P., more than twice the non-wartime record. In dollars, that equates to a staggering $1.8 trillion. Fiscally, we are in uncharted territory.

The Deflationary Bust is Bottoming? June 2009 edition

This is a continuation of a monthly series that up until now has been called The Deflationary Bust Deepens. Each month I have been tracking the progress of this first full-fledged deflationary bust in over 50 years, comparing the progress of deflationary consumer and producer prices now with the pattern of the 5 deflationary busts between 1920-1950, including the Great Depression.

Yesterday morning the BLS reported that consumer inflation increased +0.7% (seasonally adjusted) in June, (rising 0.9% non-seasonally adjusted). Year-over-year prices have fallen - 1.4% (NSA) into deflation. YoY consumer deflation is only surpassed by 1949's -2.9% in the post-Depression era.

The Deflationary Bust Deepens: May 2009 edition

This morning the BLS reported that consumer inflation increased +0.1% (seasonally adjusted) in May, (rising 0.3% non-seasonally adjusted). Year-over-year prices have fallen -1.3% into deflation. YoY consumer deflation is only surpassed by 1949 in the post-Depression era.

The first 5 months of inflation data are still in accord with the optimistic scenario I laid out in January:

In the Optimistic scenario, the fiscal and monetary stimuli, together with intelligent new political leadership in Washington, halt the meltdown perhaps by mid-year, and wage reductions remain the exception. In the Pessimistic scenario, the stimuli fail, and wage reductions spread, leading to a wage-price deflationary spiral.

April 2009: The Deflationary Bust Deepens

This morning the BLS reported that consumer inflation ramined unchanged (seasonally adjusted) in April, (rising 0.2% NSA). Year-over-year prices have fallen -0.7% into deflation. YoY consumer deflation is only surpassed by 1949 in the post-Depression era.

The first 4 months of inflation data are still in accord with the optimistic scenario I laid out in January:

In the Optimistic scenario, the fiscal and monetary stimuli, together with intelligent new political leadership in Washington, halt the meltdown perhaps by mid-year, and wage reductions remain the exception. In the Pessimistic scenario, the stimuli fail, and wage reductions spread, leading to a wage-price deflationary spiral.

Paris on the Potomac (or) A Tale of Two Cities

Francis Cianfrocca, a/k/a Blackhedd from Redstate, has started his own blog called Markets and Policy. Although our political opinions are frequently poles apart, his purely economic analysis is excellent, and always intelligent. If you are interested in reading well-done analysis from the "other" side, I highly recommend him.

Needless to say, he is opposed to Obama's stimulus plan, calling it Paris-on-Potomac:

Deflation is coming! Deflation is coming!

So says Tim Iacono of "The Mess that Greenspan Made", and who am I to disagree? After all, I've been writing about the dangers of deflation for awhile now.

Actually, Tim makes the comment in a mocking sense, noting that

In the U.S., the latest consumer price data will be reported on Friday and we may be in for a veritable "Deflation Tsunami" from the mainstream media since we were teetering on the brink of a negative consumer price index last month.

Tim's essential point, if I read him correctly, is that the deflation we have experienced is really just the popping of the Oil price bubble.

So, am I going to get into a mud-pie flinging contest with Tim? Hardly. Actually our two views aren't that far apart.

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