Welcome Huffington Post Readers

I'd like to thank my buddy Bonddad, with whom I am collaborating on "The Great Depression" series, for giving you a link over here, where I typically post.

At the moment I am absorbed with finishing that series, but I wanted to give you a flavor for the type of analysis you can expect from me. My nom de blog was actually inspired by the Schlesinger history quoted extensively in part 1 of the "Great Depression" series, and at the time I was very much surprised to find that it was still availalble (which is sad, no?).

It's officially "The Panic of 2008" (or, "I'm number 2!")

Way back on November 30 of last year, I wrote a blog entitled The Panic of 2008? in which I said:

This is NOT the Great Depression II. Nor is this the stagflationary 1970s. It is going to unfold as some other Beast. Only the broad outlines of this Beast appear discernable now: it will likely feature (1) increasing import prices; (2) wage stagnation (that does not keep up with price inflation); (3) real asset deflation; and (4) possibly a Japan-style "liquidity trap."

Why most economic forecasters get it wrong

Rummaging around for information regarding the average lead time for "leading economic indicators", I came across this 2005 article at Economist's View written by Catherine Baum who accurately called the banking crisis last year, explaining why economic forecasters are so often wrong:

The Index of Leading Economic Indicators [ ] isn't a bunch of randomly selected components .... The 10 components of the LEI were all chosen because of a demonstrated ability to predict future economic activity.

The index includes both financial (stock prices, the money supply and the spread between the funds rate and 10-year Treasury note yield) and real-side variables (building permits, capital goods orders and vendor deliveries).
The level of the LEI [ ] has an average eight to nine months lead time at peaks and troughs -- shorter at troughs ....