consumer spending

Consumer Spending Increased 0.8%, Real Personal Income Minus Government Payments Decreased -0.1% for September 2012

Americans spent more than they earned. That's what's implied in the BEA's September personal income and outlay's report. Consumer spending increased 0.8% from last month, and when adjusted for inflation was a 0.4% increase for September. Consumer spending is another term for personal consumption expenditures or PCE.

Real Consumer Spending Up 0.1%, Real Dispoable Income Down -0.3% for August 2012

Consumer spending increased 0.5% from last month, yet when adjusted for inflation was only a 0.1% increase for August. Consumer spending is a name coined by the press and means personal consumption expenditures or PCE. Real personal consumption expenditures are hugely important to economic growth as consumer spending is about 71% of GDP.

 

Bad News for Economic Growth as Q2 2012 GDP is Revised Down to 1.25%

Q2 2012 real GDP now shows 1.25% annualized growth after revisions. The advance second quarter GDP estimate was 1.5%, whereas the second revision reported 1.7% GDP growth. The BEA rounds their final GDP numbers, so the actual GDP reported was 1.3%. When we're grabbing economic crumbs, 0.05 percentage points makes a difference.

 

 

What the Q2 GDP third estimate shows is a barely breathing economy. Businesses shed inventories, consumers spent way less, a dramatic swing from the Q2 GDP advance report and investment generally is down from the 1st quarter. Shedding inventories can be a recession indicator. Durable goods spending literally vanished in Q2, also a recession indicator. The drought showed up in Q2 GDP, negatively impacting farm inventories and potentially other GDP components indirectly.

Consumer Spending Up 0.4%, Personal Income 0.3% for July 2012

Consumer spending increased 0.4% from last month, in actual dollars and also when adjusted for inflation. Personal consumption expenditures are often called consumer spending by the press. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, are about 71% of GDP. Graphed below is the monthly change in consumer spending.

 

Real Consumer Spending Decreased -0.1%, But Wages Get a Boost for June 2012

Consumer spending was unchanged from last month, but after taking price increases into account, decreased by -0.1%. Personal consumption expenditures are often called consumer spending by the press. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, are about 71% of GDP. Real means chained to 2005 dollars, thus adjusted for inflation. Below is a graph of real PCE.

 

Retail Sales Decline, -0.5%, Quarterly Sales Decline -0.2%, Not Seen Since Q1 2009

June 2012 Retail Sales decreased, by -0.5%, and this month one cannot blame just falling gas prices. Autos & Parts alone dropped -0.6% while auto dealers, part of Autos & Parts, declined -0.7%. Minus autos & parts, retail sales also decreased, -0.4%. This is the 3rd month in a row retail sales have declined. June Retail sales are up 3.8% from the same time last year.

Real Personal Consumption Increased 0.1% for May 2012

Consumer spending was unchanged from last month, but after taking price increases into account, shows a 0.1% increase. Personal consumption expenditures are often called consumer spending by the press. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, are about 71% of GDP. Real means chained to 2005 dollars, thus adjusted for inflation. Below is a graph of real PCE. This is not good news for Q2 GDP.

Real Consumer Spending Increased 0.1% for March 2012, Real Disposable Personal Income Up 0.2%

Consumer spending increased 0.3% from last month, but after taking price increases into account, showed only a 0.1% increase. Personal consumption expenditures are often called consumer spending. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures, or PCE, are about 71% of GDP. Real means chained to 2005 dollars, thus adjusted for inflation. Below is a graph of real PCE.

 

Real Consumer Spending Up, 0.5%, Real Personal Income Down, -0.1%, for February 2012

The Personal Income and Outlays report shows people spent more than they earned in February. Consumer spending increased 0.8% from last month, but after taking price increases into account, increased by 0.5%. While disposable income increased by 0.2%, when adjusted for inflation, disposable income actually dropped, -0.1%. Personal income increased 0.2% in February.

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