PCE

Retail Sales Saved by Autos, Up 0.2% for August 2013

August 2013 Retail Sales increased by 0.2% on auto sales, which increased 0.9% from last month.  Motor vehicle dealers are having a good year.  Their sales have increased 12.3% from a year ago.  Without motor vehicles & parts sales, August retail sales would have been a 0.1% increase from last month.  Building materials and clothing dragged retail sales down as they declined -0.9% and -0.8% respectively.

Flat Line Real Consumer Spending and Income for July 2013

The July personal income and outlays report shows no change in real consumer spending, which is really bad news for GDP.   Not adjusted for inflation consumer spending rose a scant 0.1%.  Real personal income isn't any better with no change for the month.  Personal income not adjusted for inflation rose 0.1%.

Q2 2013 GDP Revised Upward to 2.5% on the June Trade Deficit Shrink

Q2 2013 real GDP was revised significantly upward to 2.5% from the 1.7% originally reported   The revision gain was almost all a reduction in the trade deficit as we predicted earlier.  The shrink in the trade deficit alone added 0.8 percentage points to Q2 GDP, a welcome change.  Unfortunately this is a fluke.

Retail Sales 0.4% June Gain Shows Auto Dealers are Having a Good Year

June 2013 Retail Sales increased by 0.4% on auto sales, which increased 2.1% from last month.  Motor vehicle dealers are having a good year.  Their sales have increased 12.9% from a year ago. Without motor vehicles & parts sales, June retail sales would have shown no change from last month.  Furniture had a surprise showing with a 2.4% increase in sales.  If one removes gasoline sales from retail sales, overall the increase would have been 0.3%.

Real Consumer Spending and Personal Income Increase 0.1% for April 2013

The April personal income and outlays report shows personal income has no change from last month, mainly due to less inflation.   Disposable income decreased -0.1%, but adjusted for inflation, shows a monthly increase of 0.1%.   Consumer spending decreased -0.2%, but when adjusted for inflation grew by 0.1% for the month, which is meager.

Personal Income Up 1.1%, Spending Up 0.7% for February 2013

The February personal income and outlays report shows personal income bounced back by 1.1%  from last month's nose dive that was due to the payroll tax holiday expiration and fiscal cliff deal.   Disposable income increased 1.1% but after adjusted for inflation, shows a monthly increase of 0.7%.   Consumer spending increased 0.7%, but when adjsted for inflation grew by 0.3% for the month.

Personal Income Hammered - Drops -3.6% for January 2013

The January personal income and outlays report is horrific.  Personal Income nose dived -3.6% from December and hasn't seen this big of a monthly drop since January 1993.  That's 20 years ago.  The blame is being laid on the payroll tax holiday expiration and December did see a rise in personal income also not seen since December 2004.  Disposable income is worse.   DPI dropped -4.0%, even when adjusted for inflation.   Ouch!

Q4 2012 GDP Revised to a Barely Breathing 0.1%

Q4 2012 real GDP grew by just 0.1% after the second revision.  While technically not in contraction, 4th quarter gross domestic product results imply the economy was officially D.O.A.   Trade imports plunged, which helped economic growth.  Government spending cliff dove and sucked out -1.38 percentage points from 4th quarter real gross domestic product growth as federal defense spending declined 22.0% from Q3.   Private inventory changes hacked off -1.55 percentage points from Q4 real GDP as businesses shed their inventories.  Even without inventories in the economic growth mix,  the economy is still suffering from weak demand.

GDP Contracted -0.1% for Q4 2012!

Q4 2012 real GDP contracted by -0.1%.  Inventory investment nose dived, but was not the lone culprit for economic contraction.    Exports plunged and took -0.81 real GDP percentage points along with it.  Government spending cliff dove and hacked off -1.33 percentage points from 4th quarter gross domestic product as Federal Defense spending declined 22.2% from Q3.

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