The Congressional Budget Office has a new report out on the Stimulus.
Buried deep in the actual report is this little mention, in an appendix:
The CBO outsourced their job? Anyone aware that Global Insight has produced biased reports for corporate lobbyists?
Firstly, one would have to be dead to not hear about the massive errors from the White House on jobs created from the Stimulus. It appears the CBO is busy covering the White House's ass from the CBO blog statement:
That impact may be higher or lower than the reported number for several reasons (in addition to any issues about the quality of the data in the reports).
First, it is impossible to determine how many of the reported jobs would have existed in the absence of the stimulus package.
Second, the reports filed by recipients measure only the jobs created by employers who received ARRA funding directly or by their immediate subcontractors (so-called primary and secondary recipients), not by lower-level subcontractors.
Third, the reports do not attempt to measure the number of jobs that may have been created or retained indirectly as greater income for recipients and their employees boosted demand for products and services.
Fourth, the recipients’ reports cover only certain appropriations made under ARRA, which encompass only about one-quarter of the total amount spent by the government or conveyed through tax reductions in ARRA through September 2009. The reports do not measure the effects of other provisions of the stimulus package, such as tax cuts and transfer payments to individuals.
Oh, it's just impossible to calculate. Really? How about getting enough raw real time data in the era of the Google knowing what color shirt I'm wearing from their data collections. It's 2009! Think raw data collection on government economic statistics, in particular jobs, is just a little out of date?
The CBO is using mathematical models. I'll bet dollars to donuts those models do not include offshore outsourcing and bringing in foreign labor on guest worker visas, or foreign controlled corporations receiving funds....in their projections. Someone prove me wrong but the last mathematical model I saw was this vague multiplier claiming job growth projections and also the use of Okum, which has been shown to be broken. Some mathematical modeling!
Let's see, a 1.5% increase in government spending equals a 1% increase in GDP and that equates to 1 million jobs created.
Offshore outsourcing, bad trade deals, labor arbitrage, productivity sky high (also ignoring offshore outsourcing), sending U.S. taxpayer money overseas to foreign corporations...
oops, that all does not exist. Well, that's right, it did not exist in 1931.
Going through the actual report (large pdf):
By September 2009, the Stimulus (ARRA) has spent $100 billion and reduced tax collections by $90 billion.
This is significant for it implies most of the Stimulus money has not been spent.
Once again, while digging around in the CBO report for what actual mathematical models they used, its astoundingly vague. Mention of some historical data, established economic indicators and then we discover this:
In analyzing the economic effects of ARRA, CBO drew heavily on versions of the commercial forecasting models of two economic consulting firms, Macroeconomic Advisors and Global Insight, as well as on the FRB-US model used at the Federal Reserve Board.
Global Insight. The CBO has outsourced macro economic models to Global Insight. Are you kidding me?
The same idiots who claimed offshore outsourcing is good for America? This is a completely biased paper, sponsored by corporate lobbyists and debunked repeatedly by other economists and policy experts.
Global Insight are the same people who decided Walmart saves you money, obviously ignoring just how many jobs were lost and wages repressed due to the Big Box.
Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC partnered with ADP for a private employment report. ADP provides outsourced services.
So, considering this is the Congressional Budget Office, supposedly giving accurate projections on deficits, bills, health care policy, you name it....this is one scary find. Having these vested private interests influence or even decide CBO projections is not my idea of accurate forecasting and is especially not my idea of objective, divested of 3rd party special interests, in the national interest financial and economic projections from our government.
It would be very nice to see, very specifically, what their mathematical models are. Or as we like to say in engineering, garbage in, garbage out.