Manufacturing ISM for October 2010 - 56.9%

The October 2010 ISM Manufacturing Survey is out and PMI came in at 56.9%. September 2010 manufacturing ISM was 54.4%. This is a +2.6% increase in the factory index. While this is the 15th month for expansion (anything above 50 is an expansion), this is the first acceleration on the manufacturing ISM since April 2010.



This is what the Institute of Supply Management said about their ISM manufacturing survey report, whereas last month they were pretty pessimistic, so the survey results must have come as a surprise:

this month's report signals a continuation of the recovery that began 15 months ago, and its strength raises expectations for growth in the balance of the quarter. Survey respondents note the recovery in autos, computers and exports as key drivers of this growth. Concerns about inventory growth are lessened by the improvement in new orders during October. With 14 of 18 industries reporting growth in October, manufacturing continues to outperform the other sectors of the economy."

New orders increased a whopping 7.8 to 58.9% for the October index. In the below St. Louis Fed FRED graph, we see a clear jump on new orders in terms of the rate of change. This is the largest increase since January 2009. That's great!



Below is the ISM table data, notice this month's turn around and despite the fact Q3 GDP was fueled by inventories, those surveyed say customers inventories are too low.

     Index Series


PMI 56.9 54.4 +2.5 Growing Faster 15
New Orders 58.9 51.1 +7.8 Growing Faster 16
Production 62.7 56.5 +6.2 Growing Faster 17
Employment 57.7 56.5 +1.2 Growing Faster 11
Supplier Deliveries 51.2 52.3 -1.1 Slowing Slower 17
Inventories 53.9 55.6 -1.7 Growing Slower 4
Customers' Inventories 44.0 42.5 +1.5 Too Low Slower 19
Prices 71.0 70.5 +0.5 Increasing Faster 16
Backlog of Orders 46.0 46.5 -0.5 Contracting Faster 2
Exports 60.5 54.5 +6.0 Growing Faster 16
Imports 51.5 56.5 -5.0 Growing Slower 14
OVERALL ECONOMY Growing Faster 18
Manufacturing Sector Growing Faster 15


Hiring decreased to 57.7%, a +1.2% increase. That said, last month was -3.9% lower so we need a few blow outs of this metric.. Below is the ISM manufacturing employment graph so you can see the trend line.



There was also a massive jump in production, 6.2 to 62.7%. That's what we need to see, an increase in manufacturing output.



Inventories, in the below graph (normalized to zero), dropped -1.7 percentage points to expansion, 53.9%.



Exports jumped to 60.5, a 6 percentage point increase while exports dropped 5 percentage points to 51.5. That is going to help the trade deficit. Of course China's PMI also just blew way past expectations, so while U.S. manufacturing breaths some life, China, as usual outputs exponentially.


The ISM neutral point is 50. Above is growth, below is contraction, although the ISM is this report is noting some variance in the individual indexes (see their report). For example, A PMI above 42, over time, also indicates growth.

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