Q2 2010 3rd Revision GDP - 1.7%

Q2 2010 GDP was revised again, to 1.7% from 1.6%. Q1 2010 GDP was 3.7% after being revised for a 4th time in the Q2 2010 GDP advance report.

 

As a reminder, GDP is made up of:

Y=C+I+G+{(X-M)}

where

Y=GDP, C=Consumption, I=Investment, G=Government Spending, (X-M)=Net Exports, X=Exports, M=Imports.

Here is the Q2 2010 3rd revision report breakdown of GDP percentage points:

  • C = +1.54
  • I = +2.88
  • G = +0.80
  • X = +1.08
  • M = -4.58

Here is the Q2 2010 revised report breakdown of GDP percentage points:

  • C = +1.38
  • I = +2.75
  • G = +0.86
  • X = +1.08
  • M = -4.45

Here are the differences between the 3rd GDP revision and he second revised Q2 2010 GDP report:

  • C = +0.16
  • I = +0.13
  • G = -0.06
  • X =  0.00
  • M = -0.13

The trade deficit contributed a -3.50 percent point change to GDP. That is off the charts. In Q1 2010, the trade deficit percent point change contribution was -0.31. that's with bad trade policy in place for 30 years.

The ratio of imports to exports in real dollars is over 4 to 1. Without the trade deficit, GDP would have been 5.1%!

 

 

The below graph is the change, quarterly, of real imports vs. exports. Notice that exports decreased from Q1 to Q2 2010. The real whopper is the trade deficit. So much for the claim the U.S. is going to increase exports instead of confronting current trade policy and China.

 

 

Changes in inventories contributed 0.82 of the total 1.6%, revised from 0.63. Minus inventory changes, Q2 2010 GDP would have been 0.88%.

 

 

Below is the annualized change in real personal consumption expenditures, or C in the GDP equation, referred to as PCE as well. We see some health but no return to 2006 levels.

 

 

The good news (if anything good at all can be found in this report), is fixed investment change from Q1 2010 was 18.9%. Overall fixed investment, not including changes in inventories, contributed 2.06 percentage points to Q2 2010 GDP, but that's a downward revision from 2.12 in the 2nd Q2 2010 GDP report.

The United States reports GDP numbers annualized. So, realize when comparing to other nation's GDP reports, some report quarterly numbers, not annualized.

Also, these are national accounts, so one must use price multipliers when going from other economic reports, such as trade to the GDP report numbers.

Here is the 2nd Q2 2010 GDP revision. The advance report on Q2 2010 GDP was 2.4%. That is an 0.7 percentage point revision, or one third lower GDP than the advance report. Here is the actual report, from the BEA.

Here is the link to the BEA website for U.S. GDP reports.

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GDP post edited, error on Q1 2010 GDP

It's no wonder so many call government statistics the agency of lies...

But I made a mistake. Q1 2010 GPD is 3.7%, but it was revised, dramatically from it's 3rd revision of 2.7%.

I'm continually running down numbers in GDP reports and honestly, especially when price indexes or seasonal adjustments are applied...it's very difficult to see how the BEA comes up with their numbers.

Frankly I believe they should have data/spreadsheets that anyone with high school mathematics can follow, but such is job security or something.

The post is now corrected. I try to be accurate on these overviews so if there are any other errors or errors on this site generally, I would appreciate an email through the contact form in order to make corrections.

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