The Wall Street Journal overviews a series of studies on foreclosures, mortgage modifications and home prices.
Of 7.7 million mortgages behind in payments, they are estimating 5 million will end up in foreclosure, in spite of home mortgage modifications.
most efforts to modify loans with easier terms will delay, not prevent, the loss of homes to foreclosure
It's also fairly pocketed in certain areas. The top cities are listed below, along with their months of shadow inventory. Shadow inventory, because it's not on the actual market, can temporarily raise home prices due to less supply available. Yet that unsold inventory is waiting in the wings. It is actually being kept off the market through other means.
- Stockton CA - 27
- Orlando, FL - 27
- Miami, FL - 24
- Las Vegas, NV - 18
- Phoenix, AZ - 15
Past analysis has given a 15% further price decline but it's interesting how pocketed certain disaster markets are.
Moody's is currently forecasting an 8% home price decline for 2010.
Moody's talks about the failure of home mortgage modifications, especially the HAMP program, but notice how all analysis is about foreclosures, the failure for people to keep up with payments.