Trade Deficit Increased in June 2009

June 2009 trade statistics are out.

Total June exports of $125.8 billion and imports of $152.8 billion resulted in a goods and services deficit of $27.0 billion, up from $26.0 billion in May, revised. June exports were $2.4 billon more than May exports of $123.4 billion. June imports were $3.5 billion more than May imports of $149.3 billion.

So, while the trade deficit increased, both imports and exports increased, just imports rose faster than exports.

U.S. trade deficit, June 2009
Src: U.S. Dept. of Commerce

June to May changes:

In June, the goods deficit increased $1.2 billion from May to $38.4 billion, and the services surplus increased $0.1 billion to $11.4 billion. Exports of goods increased $1.9 billion to $84.0 billion, and imports of goods increased $3.0 billion to $122.4 billion. Exports of services increased $0.5 billion to $41.8 billion, and imports of services increased $0.4 billion to $30.4 billion.

and Year-to-Year:

In June, the goods and services deficit decreased $33.2 billion from June 2008. Exports were down $35.8 billion, or 22.2 percent, and imports were down $69.0 billion, or 31.1 percent.

I find the year to year interesting in that maybe due to the slowdown in global trade, while the U.S. exports are down 22.2% at least imports have decreased substantially more...

Since the U.S. trade deficit is an indicator of hemorrhaging jobs as well as reduced GDP, that to me is a encouraging sign.

trade balance U.S. June 2009
Src: U.S. Dept. of Commerce

Expect GDP revisions though because the net deficit has increased.

Also, one of the reasons for the increase is increased oil prices and overall increase in prices.

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Couple questions

First is the change significant? 2.4B out of 124B is something like 2%, 3.5B out out 149 very slightly more, and there seems to be more noise than that in the historical record. Now the decrease frm a year ago is clearly real, and that is definitely encouraging.

Second, where is the new increase going? Germany and France reported very slight increases in GDP that IIRC are export driven, but I think they trade primarily in the EU.

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%, "noise", margin of error, window

That is a very good question on percentages, which if you want to take it up to do some data analysis on the trade deficit over time, we'd love to read it.

I think the individual national trade data is on the site, I know I've read a breakdown of trade per nation somewhere.

dunno about Germany, france main trading partners.

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