Unemployment Not Impressive for April 2013

The BLS employment report shows the official unemployment rate ticked down 0.1 percentage point to 7.5%,and the current population survey statistics are a mixed bag of strange.   More people were employed, yet the number of people stuck in part-time jobs continues to increase.  The labor participation rate stayed at the same May 1979 record low.   U-6, a broader measure of unemployment, ticked up 0.1 percentage point to 13.9%.  This article overviews and graphs the statistics from the Current Population Survey of the employment report.   Below is a graph of the official unemployment rate.

 

unemployment rate

 

The labor participation rate stayed the same and is 63.3%, mentioned above.   The labor participation rate is at artificial lows, where people needing a job are not being counted.  Maintaining a record low labor participation rate means that those who dropped out of the labor force are staying out of the labor force.  For those claiming the low labor participation rate is just people retired, we proved that false by analyzing labor participation rates by age.

 

labor participation rate

 

The number of employed people now numbers 143,579,000, a 293,000 monthly increase.  We describe here why you shouldn't use the CPS figures on a month to month basis to determine actual job growth.  These are people employed, not actual jobs.   In terms of labor flows, the employed has been static for the last seven months, a increase of of 251,000 employed since October 2012 and 302 thousand since November 2012.  From a year ago the employed have risen 1.645 million, but bear in mind the noninstitutional population has also increased by 2.391 million during the same time period.  This gives the impression for the last six months adding employed people has slowed significantly from the previous.  The statistics from the CPS do generally vary widely from month to month.   Below is a graph of the Current Population Survey employed.

 

employed

 

Those unemployed stands at 11,659,000, a decline of -83,000 from last month.  Since October 2012 the unemployed as declined by -589,000.  In the last year, the number of people considered unemployed as dropped by -859,000.  Notice the difference between the seven month figures and the gains in employed.  This means many people simply fell off of the BLS radar screen for being counted and are considered instead not in the labor force.  Below is the change in unemployed and as we can see, this number also swings wildly on a month to month basis.  

 

unemployed

 

The number of people counted as unemployed has also remained fairly static over time.  In terms of labor flows we don't see much slope, or change in the number of unemployed.   Below is a graph of the unemployed. 

 

unemployed

 

We want to show a historical graph of the unemployed going back to 1948.  The number of official unemployed stands at 11,659,000.  In November 1982, the unemployed was 11,938,000.  That is over 30 years ago, during the 1980-1982 recession, and the civilian noninstitutional population has increased by 76.5 million people since then.  Congratulations America, over five years past the official end of the recession the jobs crisis remains at the height of the 1980-1982 recession levels.

 

unemployed historical levels

 

Below is a graph of those considered employed, in maroon, scale on left, against those considered unemployed, in blue, scale on right, by the BLS methods.  It is only recently that the growth rate of the employed has exceeded the growth rate of the unemployed (the maroon line exceeding the blue line).

 

unemployed

 

The civilian labor force, which consists of the employed and the officially unemployed, is now at 155,238,000.  This is an increase of 210 thousand from last month.    Notice in the graph below how many more people are in the labor force than at the start of the 2008 recession. Population increases every month and this post gives details on that increase, while this one describes BLS labor concepts as well as how many jobs are needed just to keep up with the increased population.

 

civilian labor force

 

It's fairly clear the American workforce is ending up in the not counted statistics overall, yet for this month, those not in the labor force now tallies to 89,936,000, a decline of -31,000 from last month.  In other words, last month's blow out increase of those considered not in the labor force did not go down much this month.   Below is the change to show on a month to month basis, the CPS shows quite a bit of variance.  We talk about the wild monthly CPS changes in this post.

 

not in labor force

 

Below is a graph of the civilian labor force, in maroon, scale on left, against those not in the labor force, in blue, scale on right.  Notice how those not in the labor force as a trend exceeds those considered employed and unemployed.  What we see is a never ending growing segment of the population that is considered neither employed or unemployed, i.e. not in the labor force, increasing, above the trend line of those who would be naturally dropping out, such as the retired and those in school.   Not in the labor force figures do include retirees.

 

civilian labor force again not in labor force

 

Those considered employed as a ratio to the total Civilian noninstitutional population stands at 58.6%, a 0.1 percentage point increase from last month.  This ratio hasn't been this low since October 1983, not counting past 2008.   This implies there are many people who could be part of the labor force who are not anymore, as shown in the graph below.

 

civilian pop to employment ratio

 

A huge problem with today's labor market is the gross number of working part-time generally.  There are a huge number of people who need full-time jobs with benefits who can't get decent career oriented positions.  Those forced into part time work is now 7,916,000, an increase of 278,000 from last month.  That is a hell of a lot of people stuck with part-time hours who need full-time work.  Of those considered employed, a whopping 18,908,000 of them are in part-time jobs, for whatever reason.  That's 13.2% of people employed are in part-time jobs, quite a high ratio.

 

 

Below is a graph of forced into part-time  work because they got their hours cut, graphed  as a percentage of the total employed.  Part-time due to cut hours  is known as slack work conditions and consisted of 5,129,000 people for April.  This is an increase of 223,000 from last month.   Below is a graph of forced part-timers due to slack work conditions as a percentage of the civilian labor force.  We think this graph is a recession economic indicator, and notice the slope matches strongly the gray recession bars of the graph.  The percentage of people in working part-time due to slack economic conditions has stayed extremely high since the start of the Great Recession, as a trend. 

 

forced part time workers

 

U-6 is a broader measure of unemployment and includes the official unemployed, people working part-time hours because that's all they can get and a subgroup not counted in the labor force but are available for work and looked in the last 12 months.  Believe this or not, the U-6 alternative unemployment rate still leaves out some people wanting a job who are not considered part of the labor force.  U-6 increased 0.1 percentage points to 13.9%.  The reason for the increase in U-6 are the part-timers shown above.

 

U-6

 

The long term unemployed, or those unemployed for 27 weeks and over, stand at 4,353,000 people.  This is a decline of -258 thousand from last month.  The long term unemployed are the crisis of our time and this figure decrease does not necessarily imply those unemployed for a long time are actually finding jobs.  The long term unemployed are now 37.4% of the total unemployed and this percentage decreased 2.2 percentage points from last month.   As part of sequestration, millions of long term unemployed just got their unemployment benefits cut by 10% or more.  In California, long term UI benefits were reduced by 18%.  Unemployment benefits or Initial claims statistics are not how the BLS counts the unemployed.

 

long term unemployed

 

The marginally attached are people not in the labor force because they have not looked for a job in the last month, but have looked for a job in the last year. This number has ballooned since 2007 and not returned to pre-recession levels. The graph below is the number of people considered marginally attached to the labor force, currently at 2.347 million.

 

marginally attached to labor force

 

Discouraged workers are people, not counted as part of the civilian labor force, who not only want a job, but also looked for one in the last year.  These people aren't job hunting now because they believe there are no jobs out there.  Below is the graph of discouraged workers, currently at 835 thousand people and are a subset of the marginally attached.  Discouraged workers is kind of a barometer for how the job market is perceived. 

 

discourage workers

 

One of our favorite statistics from the CPS survey is how many people who are considered not in the labor force, want a job now.  It is a direct survey question from the CPS.  The survey asks people who are not being counted in the unemployment statistics and official unemployment rate if they want a job.  The number who answer yes currently stands at 6,413,000.  This is a -309 thousand person decrease from last month.   Even with the decrease, there are still an astounding number of people not counted who report they actually want a job and roughly 2 million higher than before the recession.   This figure includes the discouraged workers and marginally attached, but is seasonally adjusted, unlike the above. 

 

not in labor force want a job

 

The average length of unemployment is now 36.5 weeks, an decrease of 0.6 weeks from last month.  This still is an absurdly long amount of time to be unemployed and has stayed highly elevated for years.  The drop is probably due to the long term unemployed figures declining this month.  The average duration is also so high due to the long-term unemployed, who clearly are having a hell of a time getting a job, many facing age discrimination. 

 

median duration unemployment

 

The median time one is unemployed, which means 50% of people have gotten a job in this amount of time, and is 17.5 weeks, an decrease of 0.6 weeks from last month.

 

average duration unemployment

 

Those unemployed less than five weeks increased by 10 thousand, those unemployed between five weeks and 14 weeks also increased by 10 thousand and people who had been unemployed for 14 weeks to 26 weeks also increased 230,000.  As previously noted, the long term unemployed dropped by -258 thousand.  For the month is appears our unemployed are simply moving through the duration queue.  A drop in the unemployed does not necessarily mean they found a job either.

 

Here is our overview of last month's CPS unemployment statistics.

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Wall Street soars over this?

Has to be HFT operating on just the raw unemployment rate. There simply is nothing to cheer about in this report. Once again the great disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street.

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