Politics

Candidates and their positions or lack thereof.

Consumer Sentiment Lowest Since 1980 - O RLY?

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index hit a new low, 54.9. The headlines blare it's the lowest since 1980. That's true, the index hit 51.7 in May of 1980, but the reality is the index is only slightly lower than November 2008, when sentiment hit 55.3.

 

Consumer Sentiment August 2011

 

Reuters and the University of Michigan refuse to publicly release the data for the past 6 months. The below graph was reconstructed from digging around in press releases.

Moody's Downgrade Threat

All hail the almighty credit rating agency. Yesterday Moody's threatened to downgrade the United States:

Moody's Investors Service has placed the Aaa bond rating of the government of the United States on review for possible downgrade given the rising possibility that the statutory debt limit will not be raised on a timely basis, leading to a default on US Treasury debt obligations. On June 2, Moody's had announced that a rating review would be likely in mid July unless there was meaningful progress in negotiations to raise the debt limit.

In conjunction with this action, Moody's has placed on review for possible downgrade the Aaa ratings of financial institutions directly linked to the US government: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, the Federal Home Loan Banks, and the Federal Farm Credit Banks. We have also placed on review for possible downgrade securities either guaranteed by, backed by collateral securities issued by, or otherwise directly linked to the US government or the affected financial institutions.

The Wall Street Journal points out:

For the dollar, this would spell disaster.

The triple-A rating on U.S. government bonds is one of the main reasons why many investors, including other major central banks, hold these dollar assets.

Take this top-level rating away and many will be forced to sell. The diversification flows into other major currencies, which have been a major source of dollar weakness in recent years, will only accelerate.

BBC - "Gordon Brown 'targeted' by Sunday Times" Murdoch's Last Pillar of Legitimacy Crumbles

Update: Guardian.co.uk July 12 Government to back anti-Murdoch motion "MPs from all sides seem ready to back Labour motion in Commons tomorrow declaring it would be in the public interest for News Corp to withdrad BSkyB bid."

The Times of London, Sunday Times, stands accused of tapping into former Labour Party Leader Gordon Brown's private medical records. According to the story published today by BBC, Rebekah Brooks, chief executive of the Times parent, News International, called Brown in 2006 when he was Chancellor of the Exchequer and informed him that she knew Brown's son was diagnosed with multiple sclerosis. Brooks was editor of the Sun at the time of the call. The Sun is a tabloid.  She went on to become editor of the News of the World, Murdoch's 2.5 million circulation UK flagship. (Guardian.co.uk image/video)

UPDATE July 15 [Rebeka] Brooks Resigns (pictured left above)

Osama Bin Laden Is Dead - Breaking

Looks like they finally got him. This is breaking news Osma Bin Laden is Dead.

Seems they finally found him and managed to get close enough to kill him.

Shot and killed, congratulations!

This post will be updated with details. President Obama will be making a statement at 10:30 PM, EST and it is expected this will be the announcement.

CBS reports the U.S. has stepped up the efforts to get Osama Bin Laden for the past month and finally, it is confirmed, the U.S. was successful.

One source says that his body will be disposed of, in order to not give a grave site for other radicals to focus on. The body is in Afghanistan

Regardless, this will be a great blow to radical terrorist groups who want to kill regular Americans.

This should almost make Obama golden for the next election. Indeed, the conspiracy theorists tails are waggin' on timing already.

This was a CIA intelligence operation, which then moved into an U.S. military operation, and happened today. Here is Abbottābad, Pakistan, the location of the Osama Bin Laden compound.

Government Shut Down Kabuki Theatre

The crisis loams, the doors close shut, people dependent on government paychecks whirl like dervishes in panic wondering how they will pay for food and shelter. An hour before the clock strikes twelve, when all turn into pumpkins, a deal is struck to not shut down the government.

A deal has been reached between U.S. President Barack Obama and congressional leaders on a budget plan for the rest of this fiscal year that would avert a government shutdown, a spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid said on Friday.

What was thrown to the lobbyists to make it at the last hour? It appears part of the agenda to destroy the Consumer Financial Protection Agency, now known as the Consumer Financial Bureau, was added as a rider to the 2011 budget.

Trust a financial sector lobbyist to bring both sides together. We all know the banks don't want any agency whatsoever trying to enact consumer protections.

Just today Elizabeth Warren said the Republican agenda against the Consumer Financial Bureau was all about benefiting the banks:

Republican lawmakers are doing Wall Street’s bidding by trying to restructure the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau’s funding and leadership, Obama administration adviser Elizabeth Warren said today.

Terrorists Did It, Really!

Oh my. There is a new report claiming the 2008 Financial crisis was a concerted effort by Terrorists. I kid you not. The Washington Times:

Evidence outlined in a Pentagon contractor report suggests that financial subversion carried out by unknown parties, such as terrorists or hostile nations, contributed to the 2008 economic crash by covertly using vulnerabilities in the U.S. financial system.

The unclassified 2009 report “Economic Warfare: Risks and Responses” by financial analyst Kevin D. Freeman, a copy of which was obtained by The Washington Times, states that “a three-phased attack was planned and is in the process against the United States economy.”

While economic analysts and a final report from the federal government's Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission blame the crash on such economic factors as high-risk mortgage lending practices and poor federal regulation and supervision, the Pentagon contractor adds a new element: “outside forces,” a factor the commission did not examine.

“There is sufficient justification to question whether outside forces triggered, capitalized upon or magnified the economic difficulties of 2008,” the report says, explaining that those domestic economic factors would have caused a “normal downturn” but not the “near collapse” of the global economic system that took place.

Really? Sure, if you want to call Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, Countrywide, Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase, Lehman Brothers, Bear Sterns, Moody's, S&P, WaMu terrorists, fine by me.

Budget Fight Preview

The President's budget proposal will not be released until February 14, 2011, yet the leaks and politics are spewing into the Internet beltway.

The budget proposal will recommend ending Bush-era tax cuts for the highest earners when they are set to expire at the end of 2012, though the White House didn't include the projected revenue from this in its budget forecasts. The budget projections are based on the administration's economic forecast which shows a recovering economy, but it was made before the December tax-cut compromise which, most private forecasters say, has boosted the near-term growth outlook. Faster growth could mean higher government tax revenues and a smaller deficit.

Many of the spending cuts or reductions in the budget are already known. It would, for example, freeze levels of domestic non-defense spending for five years, something the White House believes will save $400 billion.

The White House will also propose reductions to a number of federal programs, from the U.S. Forest Service to a program that provides heating assistance for low-income families. It will adopt previously recommended reductions in military spending that would reduce costs by $78 billion over several years. The budget proposal will also recommend targeted spending increases, particularly in education and infrastructure programs.

We have a cut off for heat to the poor, charging interest on student loans while that person is still in school, a comment that maybe we should tax the rich, after just giving the rich a massive tax break.

Defunct DLC

That great corporate driven lobbyist think tank, the Democratic Leadership Council or DLC, is disbanding. Yes, that lovely organization which brought you financial deregulation, NAFTA, the China PNTR, more income inequality, and Democrats jumping into bed with multinational corporate agendas is officially D.O.A.

Time:

The DLC also had two severe deficiencies. The first was its relationship to the business community, which was driven--in large part--by the organization's corporate sponsors. Wall Street had too much sway in the DLC; the Wall Street Democrats--people like Bob Rubin, Larry Summers, Steve Rattner, Roger Altman--tilted the policy focus away from productive corporate investment and toward financial speculation fueled by deregulation. This was not merely a policy mistake, it was a moral failure. The DLC's support for free trade--at the expense of fair trade (demanding equal access for our products from our trading partners)--seems downright foolish in retrospect.

And then there was the war in Iraq, which the DLC supported reflexively, as a way of seeming "strong", without ever really analyzing the intellectual weaknesses of the casus belli--which, combined with the exposure of the financial community's depredations in 2008, provided a final crushing coda for the DLC . In a way, the difference between the DLC in the 1990s and the 2000s was the difference between Bill Clinton and Joe Lieberman

There Goes Another Populist - Senator Jim Webb, Virginia, Not Running in 2012

There goes another vote for the U.S. middle class. Senator Jim Webb won't run for the Senate in 2012. The press is prattling on, claiming the reason Webb isn't running is because he might lose the 2012 election. I don't think so. I suspect he's just tired of the Washington B.S. Here is Webb's statement:

Five years ago this week, on February 8, 2006, I announced my intention to run for the United States Senate. We had neither campaign funds nor a staff. We were challenged in a primary, and trailed the incumbent in the general election by more than 30 points in the polls.

Over the next nine months we focused relentlessly on the need to reorient our national security policy, to restore economic fairness and social justice, and to bring greater accountability in our government. I will always be grateful for the spirit and energy that was brought into this campaign by thousands of loyal and committed volunteers. Their enthusiasm and sheer numbers were truly the difference in that election.

2010 Census Data Dribbling In

The first release of 2010 Census data shows the United States population increased 9.7% in a decade to 308.745,538. The House of Representatives districts are based on Census data and the political maps are changed as a result of the new numbers.

The most populous state was California (37,253,956); the least populous, Wyoming (563,626). The state that gained the most numerically since the 2000 Census was Texas (up 4,293,741 to 25,145,561) and the state that gained the most as a percentage of its 2000 Census count was Nevada (up 35.1% to 2,700,551).

Regionally, the South and the West picked up the bulk of the population increase, 14,318,924 and 8,747,621, respectively. But the Northeast and the Midwest also grew: 1,722,862 and 2,534,225.

Additionally, Puerto Rico's resident population was 3,725,789, a 2.2 percent decrease over the number counted a decade earlier.

While Nevada grew 35.1% in population, Michigan declined 0.6%. This is the slowest population percentage growth since 1940.

The press is already calculating out the redistricting of the House of Representatives. Bloomberg has Texas gaining 4 House seats with Ohio and New York both losing 2 seats in the House of Representatives. California remains unchanged.

18 states lost or gained congressional districts. Texas, as expected, gained the most seats, moving from 32 to 36 seats. Florida was the only other state to gain multiple seats, adding two and bringing it to 27 seats.

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