Trade Policy

To discuss Trade policy agenda

Trade Deficit for November 2011 - $47.8 Billion

The November 2011 U.S. trade deficit jumped $4.48 billion to $47.8 billion in a month. This is a 10.36% deficit increase from last month in the trade deficit. October's trade deficit was revised down slightly by $195 million. Exports decreased -$1.54 billion, or -0.86%, while imports increased $2.95 billion, or +1.32%. The goods only trade deficit was -$60.42 billion. Services runs a surplus of $15.43 billion.

 

 

Below is the raw customs basis accounting of the trade deficit with China, not seasonally adjusted. China alone was, -$26.87 billion, or 41.67% of the goods trade deficit for November. This includes oil. For comparison's sake the not seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit by Census accounting methods was -$64.48 billion.

 

Trade Deficit for October 2011 - $43.5 Billion

The October 2011 U.S. trade deficit decreased $704 million to $43.48 billion. This is -1.59% drop from last month in the trade deficit. Septembers's trade deficit was revised up from $43.11 billion to $44.17 billion, a $1.06 billion increase. The September trade deficit revision will negatively impact Q3 2011 GDP. Exports decreased $1.45 billion, or -2.44%, while imports decreased $2.15 million, or -0.96%. The goods only trade deficit was $58.784 billion.

 

 

Below is the raw customs basis accounting of the trade deficit with China, not seasonally adjusted. China alone was, -$28.07 billion, or 47.38% of the goods trade deficit for October. This includes oil. For comparison's sake the not seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit by Census accounting methods was $60.53 billion.

 

Trade Deficit for September 2011 - $43.1 Billion

The September 2011 U.S. trade deficit decreased $1.81 billion to $43.11 billion. This is 4.03% drop from last month in the trade deficit. August's trade deficit was revised down from $45.61 billion to $49.92 billion. Exports increased $2.5 billion, or 1.41%, while imports increased $688 million, or 0.31%. The China-U.S. trade deficit, not seasonally adjusted, decreased from it's August $28.96 billion record high to $28.06 billion.

 

 

Below is the raw customs basis accounting of the trade deficit with China, not seasonally adjusted. China alone was 45.29% of the goods trade deficit for September. This includes oil. For comparison's sake the not seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit by Census accounting methods was $61.95 billion.

 

Trade Deficit for August 2011 - $45.6 Billion

The August 2011 U.S. trade deficit increased $17 million to $$45.61 billion. This is no change (0.037%) from last month in the trade deficit. July's trade deficit was revised up slightly from $44.8 billion. Exports decreased by $95 million, or no change, while imports decreased $100 million, or 0%. The China-U.S. trade deficit, not seasonally adjusted, increased 7.42% in August and is a new record high, $29 billion for the month.

 

 

Below is the raw customs basis accounting of the trade deficit with China, not seasonally adjusted. China alone was 41.41% of the goods trade deficit for August. This includes oil. For comparison's sake the not seasonally adjusted goods trade deficit by Census accounting methods was $69.93 billion.

 

Trade Deficit for July 2011 - $44.8 Billion

The July 2011 U.S. trade deficit decreased $6.8 billion to $44.8 billion. This is a 13.11% monthly decrease in the trade deficit. Exports increased by $6.2 billion, or 3.61%, while imports decreased $0.5 billion, or 0.22%. China imports, not seasonally adjusted, increased 1.12% in July, creating a $27 billion trade deficit with China.

 

 

Oil related imports dropped another $2.5 billion with a petroleum end use trade deficit of $25.6 billion, for July, or 42.9% of the goods trade deficit, and a monthly decrease of 12.9%.

This is better news for Q3 GDP since trade deficits negatively impact economic growth. Q2 2011 GDP should also get a revision boost since June imports were revised down by $0.6 billion, although watch out, those price deflators used for real GDP computation are tricky.

The United States basically has two major ongoing problems with the trade deficit, Chinese goods and Oil imports. Below is the not seasonally adjusted import price index for oil fuel. In July the average price for a barrel of oil was $104.27, down from June's price of $106.

 

Trade Deficit for June 2011 - $53.1 Billion

The June 2011 U.S. trade deficit increased $2.3 billion to -$53.1 billion. This is a 4.4% monthly increase in the trade deficit. Both imports and exports decreased, showing a slowing of global trade. The trade deficit wasn't this big since October 2008. Exports decreased -$4.1 billion, or -2.34% from last month while imports decreased -$1.9 billion, or 0.83%. China imports, not seasonally adjusted, increased 4.9% in June, with a trade deficit of -$26.66 billion.

 

 

Trade Deficit for May 2011 - $50.2 Billion

The May 2011 U.S. trade deficit increased $6.6 billion to $50.2 billion. This is a 15.13% monthly increase in the trade deficit. In January the trade deficit increased 18.5% and the trade deficit wasn't this big since October 2008. Exports decreased $1 billion from last month. China imports, not seasonally adjusted, increased 15.6% in May, with a trade deficit of $24.96 billion. Oil imports were the highest on record with a petroleum end use trade deficit of -$30.45 billion for May, which increased 16.5%. All of this is with another -5.9% monthly drop in Japan imports, not seasonally adjusted, due to the Tsunami.

 

 

The United States basically has two major ongoing problems with the trade deficit, Chinese goods and Oil imports. Below is the not seasonally adjusted import price index for oil fuel. In May the average price for a barrel of oil was $108.70.

 

Trade Deficit for April 2011 - $43.7 Billion

The April 2011 U.S. trade deficit decreased -$3.1 billion to $43.7 billion. This is a -6.7% monthly drop in the trade deficit and the largest since October 2010. Exports were the highest on record. Oil imports were the highest on record and the drop in imports from Japan also was the largest decrease on record. The tsunami hit Japan on March 11th.

 

 

The March 2011 monthly trade deficit was revised downward by -$1.4 billion to $46.8 billion. $26.1 billion of the April goods trade deficit is oil related, $4.2 billion less than 1 month ago, and 45.6% of the total goods trade deficit. Services have surplus of $14.4 billion and increased $0.2 billion last month.

The below graph shows the monthly percentage change in Japanese imports, not seasonally adjusted. Which is worse, a devastating earthquake, tsunami and corresponding nuclear disaster greater than Chernobyl, or the financial crisis? Amazing how close the two are in percentage drops. The April 2011 decline was -25.5%, and from the recession, the February 2009 drop was -21.5%.

 

 

Trade Deficit for February 2011 - $45.8 Billion

The February 2011 U.S. trade deficit decreased $1.2 billion to $45.8 billion. The January 2011 monthly trade deficit was $47 billion, revised up from $46.3 billion. $26.7 billion of this deficit is oil related, $0.9 billion less than 1 month ago, and 44.1% of the total goods trade deficit. Both imports and exports dropped, with imports declining $3.6 billion, or 1.7% and exports dropping $2.4 billion, or 1.4% for February.

 

 

Trade Deficit for January 2011 - $46.3 Billion

The January 2011 U.S. trade deficit increased a whopping $6 billion to $46.3 billion, from the December 2010 trade deficit of $40.3 billion, revised. $26.7 billion of this deficit is oil related, $1.2 billion more than 1 month ago, and 45.3% of the total goods trade deficit. Imports increased 2.4 times faster than exports than December, with monthly increases of $4.4 billion for exports and imports $$10.5 billion.

 

 

Imports were 1.28 times larger than exports for January. In other words, for every dollar we export, we import $1.28 worth of stuff. This is on a Balance of Payments basis.

The United States basically has two major problems with the trade deficit, Chinese goods and Oil imports.

Below are imports vs. exports of goods and services from January 2007 to November 2010. Notice how much larger imports are than exports, but also notice the growth, or rate of change between months of U.S. exports.

 

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