GDP

2nd Quarter GDP Down a Record 32.9% After Revisions From 2015 to Present

The 5 year annual growth rate of personal consumption was revised down from 2.8% to 2.7%, the 5 year annual growth rate of private investment was revised up from 2.2% to 2.5%, the annual growth rate of exports was revised from 1.1% to 1.3%, the annual growth rate of imports was revised from 2.6% to 2.5%, and the growth of government investment and consumption was revised to a 1.9% rate from the 1.8% rate that had been indicated by GDP reports prior to this revision...

Durable Goods Nosedives in Advance Report

The Durable Goods advance report shows the impact Covad-19 is starting to have on the economy.  New orders dropped by -14.4% as transportation orders plunged 41% in a month.  Shipments also were negative with a -4.5% drop.  The airline industry is obviously decimated as the nondefense new orders for aircraft and parts sank by a whopping -295.7%!

3rd Quarter GDP Grew at a 3.4% Rate Because Inventories Grew at a 31.9% Rate

The Third Estimate of our 3rd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services increased at a 3.4% annual rate in the quarter, revised from the 3.5% growth rate reported in the second estimate last month, as growth in personal consumption, fixed investment, and exports were revised lower, even as the change in our inventories was a greater addition to GDP than in the 2nd estimate.

2nd Quarter GDP Up 4.1% Despite Largest Inventory Contraction Since 2009

The Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Friday included changes in definitions, in classifications, and in the presentation of the components of GDP, as well as an annual and a comprehensive (or benchmark) revision of the national income and product accounts going back to 1929, ie, from the beginning of that measure of our economic history.

Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP & Revisions From 2014 to Present

The Advance Estimate of 2nd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis released on Friday included an annual revision to the past 3 years of GDP releases, revising previously published data from the first quarter of 2014 through the first quarter of 2017, which on net indicated that US economic growth over the period from 2014 to 2016 was at a 2.3% annual rate, revised from the 2.2% composite annual growth previously published for that period

Q4 GDP A Bumbling 1.9%

The GDP initial estimate reports a weak 1.9% economic growth for the 4th quarter.  Imports really hammered GDP, just in time to validate now President Trump.  Consumer spending was lower while changes in private inventories added a full percentage point to Q4 GDP.  Generally speaking this report shows just how much imports can slow economic growth.  U.S. Exports curtailed and as a result, -1.7 percentage points of GDP were lost in Q4.

3rd Quarter GDP Revised to Indicate Growth at a 3.5% Rate

The Third Estimate of our 3rd Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services increased at a 3.5% annual rate, revised from the 3.2% growth rate reported in the second estimate last month, as personal consumption growth was revised higher, state and local government shrunk less than was previously estimated, and private non-residential fixed investment increased, rather than decreased.

Q3 GDP Comes In At 2.9%

The GDP initial estimate reports a solid 2.9% economic growth for the third quarter.  Trade exports and private inventories accelerated in Q3.  Consumer spending was home hum, although durable goods consumer spending dramatically increased.  Residential investment declined for the quarter.  While a nice report, GDP is always revised and this is just the initial release.

While Q2 GDP Is Bad News, the Revisions are Worse

The first Q2 GDP estimate shows a surprising sputtering 1.2% of economic growth.  That is a much weaker second quarter than most expected as investment declined -9.7% from the first quarter and the price index was much higher.  Worse, GDP was revised for 2016 Q1 back to 0.8%.  GDP for years 2015, 2014 and 2013, were all revised higher.  Yet since Q2 2015, quarterly GDP was revised lower, showing quite the sluggish slowdown going on for at least a year.

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