payrolls

The Details of the October 2012 Employment Report Show Payrolls Paint Not Such a Rosy Picture

The BLS unemployment report shows total nonfarm payroll jobs gained were 171,000 for October 2012. September payrolls were revised from 114,000 to 148,000 and August was also revised upward, from 142,000 to 192,000. The below graph shows the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls employment.

 

A Look at September's Payrolls from the Employment Report

The BLS unemployment report shows total nonfarm payroll jobs gained were 114,000 for September 2012 and the unemployment rate dropped to an artificial 7.8%. Some better news was August's payrolls were revised up by 40,000 jobs to 181,000 and July was also revised up by 46,000 jobs to show a gain of 142,000 in nonfarm payrolls. The below graph shows the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls employment.

 

Exploring the Wild, Weird World of Employment Numbers From Statistical Space

It's like someone pulled the unemployment rate out of a Star Trek transporter, as if America entered a time warp machine and we moved to another dimension through a worm hole. A 0.3 percentage point drop to 7.8% makes no sense when there were only 114,000 jobs added. Captain, can the unemployment rate be right and we really did defy the laws of statistics?

We want to point to something which might in part explain what happened this month with the household survey statistics. That is how long someone holds a job. We don't have monthly statistics on job tenure, yet it could very well be that finally, people are working longer at a job. The never ending Schindler's List attitude towards U.S. workers may have abated. The U.S. has disposable worker syndrome, where people are laid off and fired for no damn good reason at all. It's a fact of the American work life while one has a job one week, there is no guarantee one will have a job the next.

To wit, let's look at another obscure BLS statistic, labor force status flows. This is the number of people flowing from being in the labor force, out of the labor force, employed and unemployed on a monthly basis. Below is a graph of the monthly changes of people who moved into employment from already having a job, not being counted at all, or being part of the official unemployed since 2006.

flows to employment

ADP Employment Report Shows 162,000 Private Sector Jobs for September 2012

ADP, released their proprietary private payrolls jobs report for September 2012. This month ADP is reporting a gain of 162,000 private sector jobs. August 2012 was revised down by 12,000 to 189,000 private payrolls gains. In stark contrast, the BLS reported 103,000 private sector jobs for August 2012.

BLS Employment Report Shows 96,000 Jobs and an Unemployment Rate of 8.1% for August 2012

The August 2012 BLS unemployment report shows total nonfarm payroll jobs gained were 96,000. Even worse news, the last two months of job gains were revised down. July's gains are now 141,000, revised from 163,000 payroll jobs and June is a now a measly 45,000 jobs, also revised down from 64,000.

ADP Employment Report - 201,000 Private Sector Jobs for August 2012

ADP, released their proprietary private payrolls jobs report for August 2012. This month ADP is reporting a gain of 201,000 private sector jobs. July 2012 was revised up by 10,000 to 173,000 private payrolls gains. In contrast, the BLS reported 163,000 private sector jobs for July 2012.

Jobs Report Show 163,000 Jobs, Unemployment Rate of 8.3%

The July 2012 BLS unemployment report shows total nonfarm payroll jobs gained were 163,000. Don't get too excited, while above expectations this is still a mediocre report. June's payrolls were revised down, from 80,000 to 64,000. May's payrolls were revised up, from 77,000 to 87,000. The below graph shows the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls employment.

 

ADP Employment Report - 163,000 Private Sector Jobs for July 2012

ADP, released their proprietary private payrolls jobs report. This month ADP is reporting a gain of 163,000 private sector jobs in July. June 2012 was revised down by 4,000 to 172,000 additional private payrolls. In contrast, the BLS reported 84,000 private sector jobs for June 2012.

Yet Another Abysmal Jobs Report Shows Only 80,000 Jobs for June 2012

The June 2012 BLS unemployment report is another abysmal jobs report. Total nonfarm payroll jobs gained were only 80,000. May's payrolls were revised up, from 69,000 to 77,000. April job gains were revised down, again, from 77,000 to only 68,000. The below graph shows the monthly change in nonfarm payrolls employment.

 

ADP Employment Report - 176,000 Private Sector Jobs for June 2012

ADP, released their proprietary private payrolls jobs report. This month ADP is reporting a gain of 176,000 private sector jobs in June. May 2012 was revised up by 3,000, from 133,000 to 136,000. In contrast, the BLS reported 82,000 private sector jobs for May 2012. Graphed below are the reported private sector jobs from ADP.

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