September 2009

Deregulation and the Triumph of Wall Street

With most of the media focused on Obama's speech about health care on Wednesday, this item got largely overlooked.

Sweeping regulatory reform of the financial sector-thought to be a 2009 legislative given just four months ago-may now come down to a piece-meal approach, with the White House and its allies happy to see a couple prized components signed into law this year.

A Free Trade Test for the Obama Administration

On September 17, President Obama will have to decide whether to accept the U.S. International Trade Commission's recommendation to impose tariffs on imports of Chinese tires. Here are the findings of the USITC. And here is their final determination:

On the basis of information developed in the subject investigation, the United States International Trade Commission (Commission) determines, pursuant to section 421(b)(1) of the Trade Act of 1974,1 that certain passenger vehicle and light truck tires from the People’s Republic of China are being imported into the United States in such increased quantities or under such conditions as to cause or threaten to cause market disruption to the domestic producers of like or directly competitive products.

The Greening of America

Andrew Leonard has a short piece over at Salon titled, Chicago School: Bloodied But Unbowed. It's an interesting little piece full of links to previous articles and statements. It also includes this zinger:

.... some of the Chicago economists don't sound a whole lot different from your typical South Carolina Republican. Here's Sam Peltzman, the Ralph and Dorothy Keller distinguished service professor emeritus of economics (italics mine):

"This experience is going to seal the tomb on socialism for all time," he says. "If this can't bring it back, it's hard to think about what could." A burst of Keynesianism should surprise no one, he argues. Of course we hope the government can step in and save the economy. In a crisis people "become infantilized and go back to what's comforting to you as a child."

The Economic Populist Adopt-a-bill Program

Congress is a place where many good ideas and policy go to die, all the while screaming bloody murder via token testimony in front of some obscure subcommittee.

How about if EP regulars select a bill you know is good policy, much needed legislation and write about it. Update us on it's status.

Let's try to get these policies some love.

I'll start.

Peter DeFazio wrote H.R.1875, Title: To establish an Emergency Commission To End the Trade Deficit.

End the Trade Deficit Act

End the Trade Deficit Act - Establishes the Emergency Commission To End the Trade Deficit to develop a trade policy plan to eliminate the U.S. merchandise trade deficit and to develop a competitive trade policy for the 21st century.

Why it's super nuts to watch weekly initial unemployment claims

Last week we declared watching the initial weekly unemployment claims numbers was just nuts. This week we've upped it to super nuts. Why?

Because the numbers are then revised after the press release and there is so much noise in these statistics one cannot jump for joy (or cry in your beer depending) on these reports weekly press statements.

Take this week for example.

In the week ending Sept. 5, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 550,000, a decrease of 26,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 576,000. The 4-week moving average was 570,000, a decrease of 2,750 from the previous week's revised average of 572,750.

Trade Deficit Increased for July 2009

Remember that cash for clunkers success?  Guess what?  It looks like it added to the trade deficit, which in turn detracts from overall U.S. GDP.

That means we stimulated other national economies, not our own.

The trade figures for July 2009 have been released. The trade deficit jumped it's highest one month change since 1999 to $32 Billion.

The June to July increase in exports of goods reflected increases in automotive vehicles, parts, and engines ($1.3 billion); capital goods ($0.7 billion); industrial supplies and materials ($0.4 billion); consumer goods ($0.4 billion); and other goods ($0.2 billion). A decrease occurred in foods, feeds, and beverages ($0.4 billion).

Median Income Dropped 3.6% in 2008

income, poverty & health insurance:

The U.S. Census Bureau announced today that real median household income in the United States fell 3.6 percent between 2007 and 2008, from $52,163 to $50,303. This breaks a string of three years of annual income increases and coincides with the recession that started in December 2007.

The nation’s official poverty rate in 2008 was 13.2 percent, up from 12.5 percent in 2007. There were 39.8 million people in poverty in 2008, up from 37.3 million in 2007.

Meanwhile, the number of people without health insurance coverage rose from 45.7 million in 2007 to 46.3 million in 2008, while the percentage remained unchanged at 15.4 percent.

Commercial Real Estate Defaults Jumped Q2 2009, default rate projected to 5.4% 2011

Firstly, Commercial Real Estate delinquencies jumped in Q2 2009.

The delinquency rate on loans for 30 days or more held in commercial mortgage-backed securities rose 2.04 percentage points to 3.89 percent between the first and second quarters.

Then, the projected default rate, according to Bloomberg will be 5.4%.

The default rate on commercial mortgages held by U.S. banks will rise to 5.4 percent in 2011, the highest since at least 1992, as banks anticipate more losses amid falling rents, according to Real Estate Econometrics LLC.

The property research firm increased its projected default rates for 2009 to 2011 amid declining occupancies and incomes at hotels, shopping malls and office buildings.

Banking reform looks dead

It was only a few months ago that financial reform was on the top of everyone's to-do list. Now it seems the failing efforts at reforming the health care system has sapped all the energy out of reforming Wall Street.

Sweeping regulatory reform of the financial sector-thought to be a 2009 legislative given just four months ago-may now come down to a piece-meal approach, with the White House and its allies happy to see a couple prized components signed into law this year.
"I think it's unraveling,' says former FDIC Chairman William Isaac. "It is hard for me to see how this legislation gets done this year."
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