For 66 years the Glass-Steagall act reduced the risks in the banking system. Eight years after the act was repealed, the banking system blew up threatening the international economy. US taxpayers were forced to come up with $750 billion dollars, a sum much larger than the Pentagon’s budget, in order to bail out the banks. This huge sum was insufficient to do the job. The Federal Reserve had to step in and expand its balance sheet by $4 trillion in order to protect the solvency of banks declared “too big to fail.”
The May report on Personal Income and Outlays, released on Friday, gives us nearly half the data that will go into 2nd quarter GDP, since it gives us 2 months of data on our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for more than 69% of GDP, and the PCE price index, the inflation gauge the Fed targets, and which is used to adjust that personal spending data for inflation to give us the relative change in the output of goods and services that our spending indicated.
The Consumer Price Index for April reversed last month's course and rose by 0.2%. Inflation increases were across the board. Food rose 0.2%, energy 1.1% and all other items together increased 0.1%. Shelter continues on it's tear with a 0.3% monthly increase. Natural gas had a huge monthly increase of 2.2%. Fresh vegetables had the largest monthly jump since February 2011, an increase of 5.1%.
Since the OPEC production cuts are the main factor underpinning oil prices, and hence the ongoing increases in US drilling, we'll start by taking a quick look at OPEC May Oil Market Report (covering April OPEC & global data), which was released on Thursday of last week.
I have come to the conclusion that capitalism is successful primarily because it can impose the majority of the costs associated with its economic activities on outside parties and on the environment. In other words, capitalists make profits because their costs are externalized and born by others. In the US, society and the environment have to pick up the tab produced by capitalist activity.
Two key parts of the Trump administration have now announced something of a get-tough policy on H-1B employers. Today USCIS released a memo announcing the policy, and DOJ released a similar statement. To my knowledge, this is the first time that American STEM workers have been given a voice.
The April unemployment report on the surface looks really good because the unemployment rate is the lowest it has been since May 2007. Yet the cause of the low rate for the month is a mixed bag. Labor participation rates also remain low. On the other hand, an alternative measure of the unemployment rate, U-6, is the lowest it has been since November 2007.
Since oil pricing, and hence the industry's plans for new oil field exploitation in the US, is still largely dependent on what OPEC does, we'll start by looking at the new OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report for March, which covers February OPEC & global data.
The first quarter GDP initial estimate is a pathetically weak 0.7%. While the usual suspects, changes in private inventories, imports and government spending all contracted, the real drama is in the very weak consumer spending growth. Consumer spending is most of GDP and only gained a paltry 0.3% for Q1.
According to official US economic data, the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) has expanded for 22 quarters, raising real GDP 12.1% above its high prior to the 2008-09 economic contraction. Yet, US manufacturing output and US industrial production have not recovered to their pre-contraction high. So what is driving the real GDP growth? In my opinion, the rise in real GDP is an illusion produced by the under-measurement of inflation.
The March Consumer Price Index dropped by -0.3%. That's unusual and a decline in CPI has not happened since February 2016. The reason was volatile gas prices but America finally is catching a break on cell phone service costs too. The gasoline index by itself dropped -6.2% for the month. The bigger surprise is Inflation without food and energy prices considered dropped by -0.1%.
Figuratively speaking, a ginormous asteroid is hurtling to a cataclysmic rendezvous with earth, but we are not supposed to notice. The asteroid is the rising threat from environmental degradation. Evidence is accumulating that environmental degradation is becoming global.
The March unemployment report on the surface looked bad due too less than one hundred thousand jobs gained. But that is just one number and also not part of the report which calculates the unemployment rate and other statistics. The unemployment rate actually dropped -0.2 percentage points to 4.5%. That in itself is a decade low. The better news is the monthly drop was due to less people being unemployed and almost half a million more were working.
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