Recent comments

  • what has been stated by the author is very very obvious....great piece,very skillfull..this time and age ,its much better all around than what was achieved in Rome by those brutus,s...as the word implies:lassia faire...has made it much more acceptable and paletable for the numbers of human agent participating ....in THIS CHAPTER... to the contrary:King Lydia would be quite proud

    Reply to: The West Is Reduced To Looting Itself   4 days 6 hours ago
    EPer:
  • the November construction spending estimate was revised down from $1,122.5 billion to $1,116.0 billion annually

    Reply to: Q4 2015 GDP Comes in at a Paltry 0.7%   5 days 12 hours ago
    EPer:
  • Bloomberg is precisely the wrong candidate for the times. The right won't like his liberal social views and the left and even some right wing populists won't like his conservative economics.

    Reply to: Michael Bloomberg Possible Run for President Would Gut Social Security   5 days 18 hours ago
    EPer:
  • Well, your guy I think did a very dumb thing in not showing up for the FAUX debate and going after Megyn Kelly. I mean really, he couldn't take someone asking him about all of his sexist and misogynistic behavior over the years?

    Anyway, I'd rather have Trump than Cruz so it is not like I am thrilled here but he done it to himself me thinks.

    Reply to: A Strategic Case for Donald Trump   6 days 8 hours ago
    EPer:
  • the technical notes for this release said that BEA assumed an increase in nonresidential construction and an increase in residential construction in December...that report was released today and showed nonresidential spending fell 2.1%...

    Reply to: Q4 2015 GDP Comes in at a Paltry 0.7%   6 days 15 hours ago
    EPer:
  • I like to say Oboma while you and your family are on a 8 year vacation I've been busting my ass for the country I once knew was AMERICA. I did not get a COLA for 4 years and lost a lot towards my retirement due to that. Also let me mention the sequestration. That was a cluster &^$%^*. So I retired and sure as shit you screwed me again. I'm sure I'm not the only one. We should get a prize for being screwed so much. I am a true RED BLOODED AMERICAN and AMERICA has failed me. I'm am proud of the people who work and have fought for this country, but I'm not proud of this country anymore. SAD BUT TRUE

    Reply to: Federal Workers get a Raise, Retirees get Screwed   1 week 4 hours ago
    EPer:
  • "Social Security is the greatest transfer of wealth in the history of the world."

    Yes it is. When Reagan initiated his tax cuts from the top down he also increased Social Security levies from the bottom up. The net result was an enormous transfer of wealth up the income ladder. Social Security was given Federal Debt obligations to hold until the baby boom generation retired. That time is now and the Republicans desperately want to renege on the deal. They are as everyone knows deadbeats who blame everyone else for the economic misery they cause. As for younger Americans the only way they will not receive their Social Security is if they allow Republicans to take it from them.

    Reply to: Michael Bloomberg Possible Run for President Would Gut Social Security   1 week 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • http://www.cnbc.com/2016/01/26/bloomberg-for-president-it-could-happen-c...

    Reply to: Michael Bloomberg Possible Run for President Would Gut Social Security   1 week 5 days ago
    EPer:
  • This is crazy. We need the Fair Tax so that 100% of what we earn is what we take home.

    Reply to: Should Billionaires be Taxed for Social Security?   1 week 5 days ago
    EPer:
  • He is adamantly denying running.

    Reply to: Michael Bloomberg Possible Run for President Would Gut Social Security   1 week 6 days ago
    EPer:
  • PCE goods look good once adjusted for inflation, but PCE services doesn't get a similar boost...i think they were unchanged in November, mostly on lower utility usage, which i expect will be even worse in December when over 30 states saw all time high temperatures...the utility index in industrial production is a good proxy for what will happen to the household services in December PCE...

    so GDP looks like weak PCE vs slumping inventories, with weakness elsewhere else nearly a wash...i think JP Morgan Chase now sees 4th quarter growth at 0.1%

    Reply to: CPI Drops -0.1% for December   2 weeks 12 hours ago
    EPer:
  • I haven't been calculating any GDP component but it seems inventories have been contracting, especially in manufacturing so I am not expecting a good number, although PCE should be about the same as Q3, but this is with my thumb in the air estimate.

    Reply to: CPI Drops -0.1% for December   2 weeks 1 day ago
    EPer:
  • with this release, we are now able to estimate the economic impact of last week's December retail sales report...for the most accurate estimate, and the way the BEA will figure 4th quarter GDP next week, we would have to take each type of retail sales and adjust it with the appropriate change in price to determine real sales; for instance, December's clothing sales, which fell by 0.9%, should be adjusted with the price index for apparel, which was down by 0.2%, to show us that real retail sales of clothing were down just 0.7% in December...then, to get GDP relevant changes, we'd have to compare those real clothing sales in the months of October, November and December to real sales in the 3rd quarter months of July, August and September, and then repeat that for each other type of retailer, obviously quite a tedious chore...the short cut we usually use for a ballpark estimate is to apply the composite price index of all commodities less food and energy commodities, which was down 0.1%, to retail sales less grocery, gas station, and restaurant sales, which account for nearly 70% of aggregate retail sales....those sales were almost down 0.1% in December, and since their price index was also down 0.1%, real retail sales ex food and energy were up but statistically unchanged...in the food and energy components, grocery stores sales were down 0.1% while prices for food at home were down 0.5%, meaning real food sales rose by 0.4% in December...next, sales at bars and restaurants were up 0.8% in dollars, but those dollars bought 0.2% less, so real sales of food away from home was up 0.6%...and while gas station sales were down 1.1%, gasoline prices were down 3.9%, suggesting a solid real increase in gasoline sold as well...weighing the food and energy components at one third of total retail sales suggests that real retail sales were up on the order of 0.2% in December, following a an increase of 0.5% in real sales in November and a 0.2% increase in October...together, these increases suggest a decent contribution from personal consumption of goods, which accounts for 23% of GDP,  when the advance 4th quarter GDP report is released on January 29th...

    Reply to: CPI Drops -0.1% for December   2 weeks 1 day ago
    EPer:
  • The question of whether to tax capital gains for Social Security and Medicare "as regular wages" is a no-brainer, as is the question whether to cut benefits, raise taxes, or a combination of both to "save them." But that is a false choice. There are certainly other, more desirable, options. For example, means testing, wherein people with high retirement income who do not need Social Security lose eligibility.
    Another, and much more comprehensive solution would be to simply close two gaping LOOPHOLES that enable very wealthy people to avoid paying most or all of both Social Security and Medicare taxation: the $118,500 cap on taxable Social Security earned income and the total exemption of unearned income (income from profits, interest, rents, etc.) on both. Why should people living well, without having to work, on often inherited income, be exempt from paying those taxes on it while the struggling poor and minimum wage earners do?
    In 1968 LBJ conflated the general US budget with that for Social Security to conceal the cost of the Vietnam War. The SS trust fund has $2.9 trillion dollars. If just the capital gains exemption was eliminated it would bring in an additional $62 billion (at 12.4% of the $500 billion cited above) while Medicare would gain another $12.4 billion (at 2.9%).
    This would not only solve any and all imagined future problems, but would raise sufficient additional funds to fully fund a single payer national health care system for all Americans (especially if combined with reasonable controls over drug and medical care overcharging). Doing so would also eliminate the crippling retirement and health care problem burdens so many unions, public bodies and companies face as more and more people retire. In fact, if well-implemented it would enable the overall Social Security and Medicare tax rates to actually be reduced! It is telling that the Western European countries spend an average of about half of what is spent in the US yet have better overall outcomes.
    Finally, it is cruel to people hoping to retire at 65 to keep raising the bar to save money. Why not just raise the retirement age to 85 and be done with it!?

    Reply to: Should Billionaires be Taxed for Social Security?   2 weeks 2 days ago
    EPer:
  • Good God, you could stay in a house for a long time rent free with these statistics. Gives new meaning to strategic default.

    Reply to: Mortgage Delinquencies Rise in November; Mean Time in Foreclosure at Record 1061 Days   2 weeks 6 days ago
    EPer:
  • Or, is Trump simply another tool of the power elite, giving us the illusion he is anti-establishment?

    Reply to: A Strategic Case for Donald Trump   3 weeks 1 hour ago
    EPer:
  • PCE

    November PCE was decent enough, up 0.3% with almost no inflation adjustment...but October was a gooseegg with a 0.1% deflator...if December could duplicate November, the 4th quarter is out of the woods, but if December PCE is weak, 4th quarter GDP is at risk from weakness in investment and net exports...

    Reply to: December Unemployment Report Belies Other Economic Metrics   3 weeks 6 days ago
    EPer:
  • I haven't spent the time needed to calculate out monthly reports to give a guesstimate but inventories contracting everywhere is not a good sign. As I recall PCE seems to be around the same pace as Q3 so far.

    Reply to: December Unemployment Report Belies Other Economic Metrics   3 weeks 6 days ago
    EPer:
  • Americans in general aren't so good with those number thingies. Lotteries for example are simply a tax on the mathematically illiterate.

    Reply to: November Construction Spending Down 0.4% After Significant Errors Found in Prior Data   3 weeks 6 days ago
    EPer:
  • not often you see GDP fading with such good jobs numbers, but every report i reviewed this week appears to subtract from 4th quarter GDP...ive posted my estimates on construction and the trade deficit here already; both wholesale and factory inventories came in 0.3% lower despite just a 0.1% drop to finished goods prices...a drop in growth of inventories could take a 100 basis points off of GDP growth which already looks to have a fairly weak PCE component...the Atlanta Fed puts the 4th quarter growth at an 0.8% rate; this is the first time i've ever thought they might be too high..

    Reply to: December Unemployment Report Belies Other Economic Metrics   3 weeks 6 days ago
    EPer:

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