GDP projection

May Personal Income up 0.4%, Spending up 0.1%; 2 Months PCE to Add 184 Basis Points to Q2 GDP

The May report on Personal Income and Outlays, released on Friday, gives us nearly half the data that will go into 2nd quarter GDP, since it gives us 2 months of data on our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for more than 69% of GDP, and the PCE price index, the inflation gauge the Fed targets, and which is used to adjust that personal spending data for inflation to give us the relative change in the output of goods and services that our spending indicated. 

Further Deterioration of Trade Deficit in November Means A Bigger Hit to 4th Quarter GDP

The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for November indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by $2.88 billion to $45.24 billion in November from a revised October deficit of $42.36 billion.

The 18% Jump in Our October Trade Deficit Portends a Big Hit to Q4 GDP

Our trade deficit rose by 17.8% in October as the value of our exports decreased and the value of our imports increased.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for October indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by more than $6.4 billion to $42.6 billion in October from a revised September deficit of $36.2 billion.

July PCE, Trade Deficit, Construction, and Factory Inventories Point to 3rd Qtr GDP Growth Over 3%

In addition to the Employment Situation Summary for August from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, last week also saw the release of four July reports that give us the lion's share of that month's contribution to 3rd quarter GDP, and in some cases suggest revisions to 2nd quarter GDP.  This post reviews those four reports, with an eye to assessing their impact on GDP growth.

The 10.1% Increase in the May Trade Deficit Was Not Bad Enough to Hit GDP

Our trade deficit increased by 10.1% in May as the value of our exports decreased and the value of our imports increased.   The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for May indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit rose by $3.8 billion (rounded) to $41.1 billion in May from a revised April deficit of $37.4 billion.

April and May PCE To Add 2.66 Percentage Points to Q2 GDP Growth

The May report Personal Income and Outlays from the BEA gives us nearly half the data that will go into 2nd quarter GDP, since it gives us 2 months of data on our personal consumption expenditures (PCE), which accounts for more than 2/3rds of GDP, and the PCE price index, which is used to adjust that personal spending data for inflation to give us the relative change in the output of goods and services that our spending indicated.

May Retail Sales Boost PCE Contribution to 2nd Quarter GDP

Seasonally adjusted retail sales rose 0.5% in May after retail sales for March and April were revised slightly higher..  The Advance Retail Sales Report for May (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that our seasonally adjusted retail and food services sales totaled $455.6 billion for the month, which was an increase of 0.5 percent (±0.5%)* from April's revised sales of $453.6 billion and 2.5 percent (±0.7%) above the adjusted sales of May of last year.

The Impact of April’s Income and Outlays, Trade Deficit, Construction Spending, and Factory Inventories on GDP

With the first Friday of the month, the Employment Situation Summary for May from the Bureau of Labor Statistics was obviously the most widely watched release of last week.  But the week also saw the release of four reports for April that give us the lion's share of that month's contribution to 2nd quarter GDP, and in some cases suggest revisions to 1st quarter GDP.

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