Home

The Economic Populist

Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time

Discussion

  • Forums
    • Labor Economics
      • Labor
      • Outsourcing/Insourcing
        • Immigration
        • Professional Labor Issues
    • Macro Economics
      • Fiscal, Monetary Policy
      • Global
      • Tax Policy
      • Trade Policy
      • Wall Street
    • Politics
      • Congress
      • Executive Branch
    • Admin
  • Home
  • Reads
  • Discuss
  • RSS Feed
  • Twitter
  • About
  • Contact
Home Blogs midtowng's blog

New blog posts

  • A Brief History of Securitization
  • Cuomo Takes on The Money Party
  • PIGS and the ouzo effect
  • Sunday Morning Comics - Yeah Yes Men Edition
  • Must Read Posts - Sometimes you just can't say it better for 02.06.10
  • Friday Movie Night - 25 Million Pounds
  • Is Residential Real Estate a Ticking Time Bomb?
  • It's time to live within our means once again
  • U.S. Manufacturing, Hire America & Buy American
  • Sunday Morning Comics - Hayek vs. Keynes Edition
more

User login

  • Create new account
  • Request new password

Navigation

  • User Guide
  • News aggregator

Recent Comments

  • SIGTARP is "the tell"
    57 min 46 sec ago
  • Actually,
    1 hour 7 min ago
  • What surprised me about that interview
    1 hour 12 min ago
  • True, but they are only making matters....
    2 hours 45 min ago
  • Part of the problem is the dire straits of states and cities
    3 hours 32 min ago
  • automatic graph scaling
    5 hours 53 min ago
  • Thanks
    6 hours 37 min ago
  • Euro being heavily shorted now
    6 hours 57 min ago
  • blog post idea
    7 hours 8 min ago
  • Great Post
    7 hours 15 min ago
  • there goes what's left of savings and retirement funds
    8 hours 19 min ago
  • FYI
    8 hours 26 min ago
  • Let's sure hope so
    10 hours 19 min ago
  • Greece default doesn't matter yet then it does ...
    11 hours 53 min ago
  • Actually the biggest waste of government money
    12 hours 9 min ago
  • We're In Holding Pattern Until 2012..
    14 hours 52 min ago
  • When is the MSM going to point out we are LOSING the best jobs?
    15 hours 45 min ago
  • Biggest waste of money from our Gov
    19 hours 37 min ago
  • I think instead
    1 day 3 hours ago
  • Regarding Spain
    1 day 4 hours ago

Poll

Populist Du Jour

  • Holy Cow Batman! SIGTARP Barofsky says U.S. on the hook for $23.7 Trillion in bail out!

Vox Populi

  • Holy Cow Batman! SIGTARP Barofsky says U.S. on the hook for $23.7 Trillion in bail out!
  • Subprime meltdown over; now comes the bad news
  • The Deflationary Recession of 2009?
  • The Panic of 2008: a turning point
  • Text of Bail Out Act Before Congress - TAKE ACTION NOW!
  • Scientist Who Laid Ground Work for Nobel Prize Drives a Bus, Can't get a Job
  • 2009: Recession vs. Recovery (Update 4)

Active forum topics

  • How important is Greece?
  • Economic Stress hits new record
more

Atlanta Fed's Macroblog

  • Is good news hidden in bad employment numbers?
  • Southeast businesses offer insights on capital spending plans
more

iMFdirect

  • Getting Ready to Join the Eurozone Club
  • More to Do on Financial Sector Tax, Says IMF’s Lipsky
more

CBO

  • CBO Estimates a Federal Budget Deficit of $434 Billion in the First Four Months of Fiscal Year 2010
  • How Reducing Payroll Taxes Can Encourage Employment
more

powells

GAO

  • GAO-10-248, Highway Research: The Second Strategic Highway Research Program Addresses the Four Required Areas, but Some Anticipated Research Was Not Funded, February 5, 2010
  • GAO-10-25, Troubled Asset Relief Program: Treasury Needs to Strengthen Its Decision-Making Process on the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility, February 5, 2010
more

Instapopulist

  • Economic Stress hits new record
  • The Federal Reserve's Exit Plan is Another Bank Bail Out Pig Fest
  • How important is Greece?
  • China Eastern Jiangsu Provence raises minimum wage, wow $140 a month!
  • Bank Failure Friday - one this week, 200 failures expected this year
  • Dr. Robert Reich on financial reform
  • Banksters ready to side-step new credit card rules
more

Calculated Risk

  • Greek Finance Minister: Call for help "worst possible signal"
  • Party Like it's 1999
more

Naked Capitalism

  • Questions about the coming wave of second mortgage writedowns
  • Links 2/8/10
more

Paul Krugman

  • Euro perspective
  • Know Your Deficits
more

dorgan

The Baseline Scenario

  • Elizabeth Warren Calls Out Wall Street
  • Whose Fault?
more

EPI

  • Unemployment drops to 9.7% despite more job losses
  • Unemployment rate drops to 9.7% despite more job losses
more

Eyes on Trade

  • Exciteable Young Men
  • Exciteable Young Men
more

Econbrowser

  • Reactions to last week's economic data
  • Federal Debt: More Time Series
more

TradeReform.org

  • Much Of China's 2009 Steel Made Without Proper Permits -Report
  • Biggest Bubble in History Is Growing Every Day
more

EconomPic

  • Women Taking Over the Workforce
  • What Mortgage Payment?
more

Economist's View

  • "Any Hope for Meaningful U.S. Climate Policy?"
  • Paul Krugman: America Is Not Yet Lost
more

Economy in Crisis

  • Why Layoffs are Not Beneficial to Companies
  • A Growing Concern
more

The Big Picture

  • The Crumbling Greek Economy
  • Corporate credit markets feeling the correction too
more

Credit Slips

  • Bankruptcies Maintain Similar Month-to-Month Rate in January
  • Monetary Policy and the Housing Bubble
more

Manufacture This

  • The Future of Manufacturing…Part Five
  • Dr. Peter Morici Says the U.S. Economy is in “Shambles”
more

Alan Tonelson

  • More on Obama's Export Delusions
  • Domestic Manufacturers Urge Obama to Back Up Tougher China Talk With Immediate Currency-Manipulation Bill Push
more

black swan

Beat The Press

  • Jingoism and the Budget Deficit: Using Any Tactic to Advance the Budget Cutting Agenda
  • Social Security Benefits Will Be Paid, It is the Law
more

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

  • Roubini Bloomberg Interview on Sovereign Debt and U.S. Outlook
  • RGE's Weekly Roundup
more

Zero Hedge

  • The Ever Increasing Parallels Between AIG And Greece... And The CDS Puppetmaster Behind It All
  • Sovereign Risk and the Price of Oil
more

The Mess That Greenspan Made

  • The new Canadian housing bubble?
  • An interview with Fred Sheehan
more

Tax Justice Network

  • Football premier league seeks elite opt-out
  • Switzerland must consider automatic information exchange - finance minister
more

Brad Delong

  • Best Thing I Have Read Today: Mark Elvin (1972), "The High Level Equilibrium Trap"
  • Added to the Pile...
more

Steve Keen's Debtwatch

  • Interview on Switzer TV
  • Vote for Ignoble/Dynamite Economics Prize
more

New Deal 2.0

  • Bill Black to BofA Chairman: Racist bank adviser in Germany must go
  • Straws in the Wind: The 5 Supremes
more

Pension Pulse

  • Drop in Dividends Leaves Pensions Exposed?
  • Another Freaky Friday?
more

Angry Bear

  • AN IMMODEST PROPOSAL
  • In Other News, Larry King is Selling Divorce Insurance
more

Robert Reich

  • 2010 Rancho Mirage Speakers Series
  • Who's Killing Financial Reform?
more

Noslaves.com

  • Economy in Crisis Calls Out Bill Gates and Lobbyist H-1B Propaganda
  • Jobs Bill
more

Financial Armageddon

  • The Next Phase of My Evaluation
  • A Secular Shift?
more

Rolling risk in America's debtoconomy

Submitted by midtowng on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 19:23.
  • debt maturity
  • treasuries

Moody's released a report that would be headlines in the financial news media of any country that wasn't in bed with Wall Street.

The average maturities of new debt issuance by Moody’s-rated banks around the world fell from 7.2 years to 4.7 years over the last five years — the shortest average maturity on record.

So how much is that in raw numbers? Banks will face $7 Trillion in maturing debt before the end of 2012, and $10 Trillion by the end of 2015.
Those are staggering numbers, but it doesn't end there.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

When a bank's portfolio is full of short-term maturities, it makes it more vulnerable to panics, crashes, and liquidity squeezes. If the debt maturity issues of today were true in the summer of 2008, the bailout would have been much sooner and much larger.
When the debt matures it is likely that the banks will be looking to exchange the short-term debt for longer maturities, but that will come at a cost.

funding costs would increase from the mere fact of moving out on the yield curve, with the risk of funding costs being pushed up further by the rising tide of benchmark rates.

Which brings us back to the simple question of how easily the banks will be able to find enough investors to roll over the enormous amounts of debt saturating the system. Even Moody's is skeptical.

Investors have returned to the market in 2009, providing significant amounts of funds, but this should not be confused with a return to a normal operating environment. We believe that the “thawing” of debt and equity markets was largely driven by calculated, opportunistic risk-taking in the context of the extraordinary support provided by government programs and very low short-term interest rates. We would therefore not describe the investor resurrection as a return to strong financial fundamentals in the markets.
In fact, we expect that credit-related losses to continue to cause damage to banks’ financials. In our view, losses are still on a rising trend, mainly because of the delay that exists between the end of a recession and a fall-off in provisions and actual charge-offs.

Of course a lot of money has been printed by the central banks of the world recently, so its likely that the banks can scrounge up $7 Trillion in the next three years. The problem is that the banks aren't the only ones that will need to be rolling over maturing debt.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

About 40% of the $7 Trillion of marketable treasury securities matures in the next 12 months. That's $3 Trillion of treasury debt by the end of 2010.

In fact, with the coupon calendar currently in place, the average maturity of issuance now exceeds the average maturity of marketable debt outstanding. This suggests that the decline in the average maturity of debt outstanding that that we have witnessed over the past seven years – from a high of approximately 70 months in 2000 to a low of approximately 50 months earlier this year should be arrested and begin to slowly lengthen going forward.

— “Report to the Secretary of the Treasury“, Treasury Borrowing Advisory Committee of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, 5 August 2009

In the space of two years, the portion of America's debt that matures within a year has jumped from 30% to 40%. Consider the possible problems.

Image Hosted by ImageShack.us

Considers two scenarios if the US has a currency crisis, a solvency crisis, or some other financial stroke.

(1) We’ve borrowed $14T, one year’s national income, but financed it all with 30 year bonds. The interest bill would be large, at 6% equivalent to roughly 1/3 of the Federal government’s revenue. But only 3% must be rolled over every year. In a crisis we might lose the ability to borrow (painful), but the debt remains manageable. Also increases in interest rates affect us slowly, as the 3% of the debt rolls over annually.

(2) We’ve borrowed $14T financed with 1 year bonds. The interest bill would be far less, but any crisis threatens the government’s solvency: bankruptcy, hyperinflation, and revolution would be our choices. Also, a rise in rates immediately increases the interest cost. Even if we manage to roll the debt in a crisis, the rise in rates alone might prove catastrophic.

With an average maturity of only 49 months, and almost half due in the next year, we are far too close to the second scenario.

Yet another area of the economy that will need to roll over massive amounts of debt in the coming few years is commercial real estate.
Unlike the residential real estate industry, with its 15 to 30 year mortgages, the $6.5 Trillion commercial real estate market typically involves five to seven year mortgages. Fitch estimates that losses on commercial real estate will dramatically rise next year.

There have already been attempts to roll over some European loans due for refinancing, with one investor summarising the position in an increasingly used phrase, “a rolling loan gathers no loss”.

All told we are looking the American economy is looking at rolling over about $15 Trillion in debt in the next three years, more than the present GDP of America. That doesn't include any new borrowing from the federal government, state and local governments, and private sector.
It makes one wonder exactly where all this credit is going to come from, and when America becomes classified as a deadbeat?

  • midtowng's blog
  • addthis
  • Email this Blog entry
  • 3 points

Even with a change in administration

Submitted by Robert Oak on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 19:26.

I'm about to jump out of my skin with the refusal of Congress to do their job instead of corporate lobbyists jobs and start rebuilding this economy with trade, economic incentives, jobs programs and frankly it looks strongly that our entire education system needs reform....seemingly administrators have picked up on the same tricks as executives and are seriously lining their pockets.

Glad to see this post, midtowng. You hadn't posted for a few days and I was worried we lost our best writer!

Not yet rated.
  • reply

Hence Marc Faber's target

Submitted by OregonGuy (not verified) on Tue, 11/10/2009 - 21:52.

Hence Marc Faber's target for the future value of the dollar: $0. Faber is given to melodramatics, but he has a point.

With Ambac threatening bankruptcy and Jim Chanos recommending going short municipal bonds we may be seeing the early signs of the real debt bubble collapse. Geithner and Bernanke have their fingers in the dike, but the water is lapping over the top. They're hoping to raise the height of the dike through inflation, but dollar revulsion may come first.

As a middle-aged saver, I see myself losing either way.

Rated 4 by one user. see individual ratings
  • reply

"Debt Jubilee"

Submitted by RebelCapitalist on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 07:28.

IMHO, Prof. Steve Keen has it right - debt and deflation. The question is what do we do? MASSIVE DEBT FORGIVENESS OF PRIVATE SECTOR DEBT - DEBT JUBILEE. Kill the parasites in the financial sector. Press re-set on financial sector and start over.

RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.

Not yet rated.
  • reply

We won't have debt forgiveness in the private sector

Submitted by gatias (not verified) on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 09:42.

Sadly the train has left the station for debt forgiveness in the private sector. That needed to start en masse about a year ago, when our government was faced with a choice - bail out the people or bail out the very gangsters that caused the mess, and our government chose the banksters over the people.

Which is the moral hazard that undercurrents the whole situation. Not discussed as much, but it will be the moral implications of all this that will tear our nation apart in the years to come. When that time comes, no charts will be needed for the average American to understand what happened.

They'll understand that the situation midowng so ably presents was willful. It was the financial elites stubbornly refusing to let the people off the hook, when they could have done so. The people are the last ones in to a giant ponzi scheme. And our government willfully decided to pour whatever it can conjure into the top of ponzi scheme to keep it going.

The crisis is not economic, it's moral. Bernanke and co. are amoral men, Destroyers willing to sink a nation to protect it's elite. The people haven't figured it out yet in large numbers, but hopefully they will.

Rated 5 by one user. see individual ratings
  • reply

I agree.

Submitted by RebelCapitalist on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 12:06.

But our current state of purgatory will not change without some significant shifts in policy. Banks will not provide credit to businesses because they are insolvent but are being propped up by the Fed and Treasury.

RebelCapitalist.com - Financial Information for the Rest of Us.

Not yet rated.
  • reply

did you read that COP report?

Submitted by Robert Oak on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 12:14.

I wrote up in a blog post. I was fairly surprised TARP is projected to turn a slight profit.

Frankly I think it's all ill gotten gains, but it could be worse, they could have lost that money.

It's really dense and that's because of the insane amount of programs out there, I concluded it was meant to baffle, so the report you must track each mnemonic to each program and then to the money outlays of it.

But, it appears Citigroup is a black hole which has fallen off of the public radar screen.

On the Economy, we need major structural change. Not only do we need major financial reforms, the entire economy, these policy makers refuse to deal with globalization.

Not yet rated.
  • reply

I don't believe that

Submitted by midtowng on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 12:49.

I was fairly surprised TARP is projected to turn a slight profit.

The money that has been paid back has been from the solvent companies. The losses from loans to insolvent companies hasn't been booked yet. If you keep loaning a hopelessly bankrupt company money, then you never have to acknowledge that you've wasted the it.

It's just more wishful thinking as far as I'm concerned. They are sensitive to the public outrage, and this is just one way for them to deflect it.

Rated 5 by one user. see individual ratings
  • reply

I have a heard time believing it too

Submitted by Robert Oak on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 13:02.

But.....COP as well as SIGTARP have been trying very hard, so for them to explicitly state this, I have to give it some credibility.

I don't think they can buy or silence Elizabeth Warren.

In their report, they have a series of charts, spreadsheets which show the outlays vs. the revenues.

But! The black hole is Citigroup, with the largest amount of funds received.

So, if the losses aren't booked yet, I'm wondering why COP doesn't really point to it, but they sure do point to Citigroup and how information is not forthcoming.

Not yet rated.
  • reply

TARP 'almost certain' to bring loss

Submitted by midtowng on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 12:59.

If it doesn't make sense, then chances are it is bullsh*t.

(Bloomberg) -- Neil Barofsky, the federal watchdog for the $700 billion financial industry bailout, said the program will “almost certainly” result in a loss to U.S. taxpayers.
“We need to temper or be realistic about our expectations,” he said today at the Bloomberg Washington Summit of the Troubled Asset Relief Program. “It’s almost certainly going to be a loss.”

Rated 5 by one user. see individual ratings
  • reply

you're right midtowng

Submitted by Robert Oak on Thu, 11/12/2009 - 13:28.

I managed to confuse myself (not good when I'm reading these reports and writing blog posts on them!) between the guarantees program vs. the "cash" TARP.

Fortunately the error is just in the comments and not the actual blog post and I also put up another one on TARP with the actual projected losses.

Currently the projected losses from the $700 Billion are $200 Billion.

But! While Citigroup passed the lastest stress test, it's really unclear exactly how and they have the largest amount of funds.

GMAC failed the stress tests. It's in the post on using TARP to "pay down" the deficit....but I don't understand how that works since the TARP itself is borrowed money.

Seems like some accounting trickery that I'm unsure hits the taxpayer more? Unclear.

Also, I'm seeing some noise about GS manipulating the oil commodities futures markets. On this post which is making the "links" rounds.

Also included are our main TARP recipients.

Finally, I find it very interesting that the derivatives market is basically controlled by these 4 major players AND we cannot get meaningful reforms.

Anywho, to be clear, the guarantees program is projected to come up with a slight profit, abet I frankly don't trust much coming from the OMB. Hopefully SIGTARP will weigh in on that.

Not yet rated.
  • reply

OMB report

Submitted by Robert Oak on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 13:26.

I'm digging around more into it and finding CBO last report was in June, SIGTARP, 10/09.

But frankly I trust OMB like I trust Enron for giving objective data.

SIGTARP says we've lost $50B for the home program and odds are the auto companies won't be able to pay back their loans.

I believe the COP report is focused on guarantees, warrants, loans....

But unless I read something incorrectly that slight profit was total principle.

Still they based their report on OMB projections....

I wonder why they did that and not use the SIGTARP report.

Not yet rated.
  • reply

It's not a time for credit anyway

Submitted by gatias (not verified) on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 12:23.

It's a time to deleverage.

The formula, in my view, would have been to let every major bank and casino house fold in 2008. Then take 1/2 of the Fed-gotten-goodies we produced out of thin air, and push that over to the base of the pyramid in the form of a social safety net, to deal with the depression that would have resulted.

At the same time do a society-wide revaluation of assets and commensurate consumer debt forgiveness.

Instead of that, we pour tens of trillions into the top of the pyramid, only to keep the old ponzi scheme going, while inventing brand new ones to get lost in. And then we just hand over the cash to boot, with no lending requirements.

You're right, we're stuck now. Banks won't lend and consumers won't borrow. But that won't change, it's too late for that now. All we have from now on is government gimmicks, bubbles, and an ocean of public and private debt, until the whole thing folds in on itself.

Ben belongs with Bernie.

Not yet rated.
  • reply

gatias

Submitted by Robert Oak on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 12:40.

You might consider creating an account since you are commenting often.

I also have no idea what "Ben belongs with Bernie" means.

Not yet rated.
  • reply

Good tip

Submitted by gatias (not verified) on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 16:59.

I should do that on the account, thanks for the tip.

"Ben belongs with Bernie" was rhetoric, a bit of hyperbole. As in Ben Bernanke belongs in the same jail cell with Bernie Madoff.

Obviously this isn't true in a literal sense. But for running a legal ponzi scheme 1,000 times larger than Bernie's illegal one, Ben belongs somewhere not as Chairman of the Federal Reserve.

Not yet rated.
  • reply

Personally I don't blame Ben so much

Submitted by Robert Oak on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 17:33.

I blame Greenspan and then I blame the structure of the Federal Reserve itself.

I wrote up a 1st pass review of Dobbs bill and he has some structural changes but separating the Federal Reserve from commercial/financial banking industry to me is critical.

About the only thing I can blame Ben for in all seriousness is the stonewalling on who received the $2 trillion dollars.

I blame Hank Paulson much more.

I'll look for your account info. (each must be approved).

Not yet rated.
  • reply

Doom and Gloom

Submitted by Tom on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 14:49.

Midtowng,
You are one of those ‘doom and gloom’ negative guys that Bonddad and New Deal Democrat are always talking about. Wake up and smell the ‘green shoots!’ is what they say.

Tongue in Cheek of course.

Seriously, what I’m wondering (just wondering) if there are two variables that if factored in may mitigate if not solve the debt problem: (1) massive inflation via Central Banks (plural) operations and (2) the massive wealth of Gulf States that have a vested interest in keeping the US a super military power which entail keeping the US economy healthy. Gulf states may have enough money to cover a significant portion of the debt as it comes due –just a thought.

Not yet rated.
  • reply

Bank Failures

Submitted by Frank T. on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 15:25.

A quote from James Fuchs & Timothy Bosch of the St. Louis Fed in a paper on on "Why Are Banks Failing?"

“Although today's challenges are great, the four underlying reasons for bank failures have not changed from those of years' past, which are:
 an imbalance of risk versus return
 failure to diversify
 offering products and services that management doesn't fully understand
 poor management of risks"

Is there any incentive to correct their mistakes? Will Uncle Ben always be there to bail them out?
Frank T.

Not yet rated.
  • reply

The word you are looking for

Submitted by LitoKey (not verified) on Wed, 11/11/2009 - 16:51.

The word you are looking for is Chreosonomy.

"Rolling risk in America's Chreosonomy"

Not yet rated.
  • reply

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
Input format
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <b> <address> <blockquote> <br> <caption> <center> <code> <dd> <del> <div> <dl> <dt> <em> <font> <h2> <h3> <h4> <h5> <h6> <hr> <i> <img> <li> <ol> <p> <pre> <span> <strong> <sub> <sup> <table> <tbody> <td> <tfoot> <th> <thead> <tr> <u> <ul> <tr>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Image links with 'rel="lightbox"' in the <a> tag will appear in a Lightbox when clicked on.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
Image CAPTCHA
Copy the characters (respecting upper/lower case) from the image.

Syndicate

Syndicate content

Add to Technorati Favorites

Privacy Policy

Google Delicious Yahoo! Bloglines Newsgator MSN AOL Rojo Newsburst RSSFwd
© Economic Populist 2008-2009