March 2008

Congress Kisses Bill Gate's A**....again!

Yes, believe it or not, while heading towards a recession and companies like Chrysler firing Americans yet keeping cheaper H-1B Guest workers, we have Bill Gates getting his very own hearing to spread his own personal propaganda before Congress.

See Bill Gates Busted - Lies to Press and Congress for last year's free reign propaganda show, courtesty of Sen. Ted Kennedy.

Ya know, here we are in an election cycle and we have Democrats selling US workers down the river, brazenly so.

A brief stock market aside

This may be a strange title for a "populist" blog, but the behavior of the stock market is a leading indicator for the economy, so there is some value in calling attention to it when it signals something to us. Not to mention that progressives like to make money too.
I'm really impressed with the behavior of the stock market these last couple of days. We've had a slew of bad news, mainly worse than expected, and instead of collapsing, the market has held its own both days, finishing, less than 1% lower as of Tuesday's close.
Not only that, but both days have seen strong rallies in the last hour. That's the sign of a market that wants to go higher, i.e., a bull market.
I know, I just got done posting graphs for a 120 year period and said I distrust short term charts. But when the market behaves in an unexpected way -- going down on good news or up on bad news -- I pay attention. This market wants to go up, even on bad news.

Bernanke signs on to voluntary mortgage cramdowns

This will be a quick note. I will probably post more extensively tomorrow.
The Housing Crisis Fairy ain't coming. Ten years of housing were built in the 5 years of 2001-2005, and the only way the market will be restored to a reasonable equilibrium is by falling house prices. Those who bought houses in 2004-7 at very least are going to have to acknowledge that the value of their house is declining. I.e., there will be pain.
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke has signed on to the idea of voluntary mortgage cramdowns, similar to those proposed by the Office of Thrift Supervision last week. Here's a quick summary, per CNN:

NAFTA is Not the Main Problem

Does it make any sense at all to tax American workers for working, American investors for investing and not tax imports?

NAFTA is Not the Main Problem
Early in our nations history, states were not allowed to place tariffs on goods produced in another state. This was done because it was believed that free trade would benefit the entire country.

Most states then wisely instituted sales taxes and derived income from all things purchased in their state. This way the state gained income from all businesses selling things on their turf. It is somewhat like, if a neighbors cows are going to graze (sell things) on our farm, we should share in in the profits.

Death of Indian Outsourcing

Forbes is predicting the death of India's offshore outsourcing business due to increasing wages.

Gotta love 7% of a nation's GDP devoted to undercutting US wages.

The cost advantage for offshoring to India used to be at least 1:6. Today, it is at best 1:3
Yet, India, for all its glory, is still the world’s back office. India's tech industry is a "services" industry. The Indians don’t do the thinking. The customers do. India executes.
As a result, India has not learned to invent technology products of its own. Barring a few exceptions, the huge amount of venture capital chasing India finds it difficult to be deployed. There is way too much money, way too few deals. Instead, tech-sector VCs are now diverting capital to retail, real estate, hotels and other non-tech sectors.

1946! Interest rates, inflation, and war

I'm not a trader, and I don't put much faith in short term charts the likes of which you typically see in financial porn. Longer term charts, however, are more interesting. It is much easier to separate the signal (or trend) from the noise, and the "trend" is a reflection of the economic psychology of the public. Not just that part of the public that invests, but the public who buys houses and has mortgages, buys cars and retail and pays on credit, or even saves in CDs and money market accounts. In short, just about everybody.

Households Spend More Than Income

Despite no real change in January spending, for the first time on record households spent more than all current incomes for the 3rd consecutive month.

Today’s BEA report on personal income and spending shows that price-adjusted household spending was unchanged in January. Nevertheless, total household spending in January was more than ALL after-tax incomes as households again dipped into savings or fell deeper into debt for a record third consecutive month.

Note that these are not “median” figures but total income and spending for ALL households including those few that received very large bonuses in January.

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