May 2009

Chrysler Dealerships Get the Shaft on Inventory - GM to close 1100 update

The Detroit Free Press is reporting on the closed Chrysler dealership details and it appears these dealerships are stuck with the existing inventory and all of the parts on hand. Talk about guaranteeing these dealerships go down in flames, this has to be it:

Now that it has notified 789 dealerships they would be terminated, Chrysler must sell the 44,000 vehicles sitting on their lots in the next few weeks without driving prices to fire-sale levels for remaining dealers.

"It's going to be a challenge even with the factories closed to redistribute that number of vehicles and sell them in a short period of time," said Mike Jackson, CEO of AutoNation, the nation's largest auto retailer. Even a giant like AutoNation will lose seven Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge dealerships that employ 400 people.

Despite that, Jackson called the closings painful, but necessary.

Friday Movie Night - The Madoff Affair

 It's Friday Night! Party Time!   Time to relax, put your feet up on the couch, lay back, and watch some detailed videos on economic policy!

 

This week's video is Frontline's The Madoff Affair. Be aghast at how people of the super elite wealthy class are just as stupid as regular folk. Be horrified on how rock star status trumps facts, evidence and anything based in reality. Were you aware Bernie Madoff was a NASDAQ chairman at one point?

 

 

Book Review - The Black Swan

Taleb is an asshole. He would not be fun at parties, pointing out every single logic flaw one can possibly possess. Overlooking the lies and pride that make up so much social lubricant in specialized societies, such as quantitative analysis, is not something this guy is going to deal with. Say something stupid, he's not going to just smile and nod and be one of the boys. Seriously. But he's the type of asshole one wants around when dealing with the increasing prevalence of mathematical models used in structured finance.

Taleb hates the Gaussian.

Congressional Fair Traders

Fair Trade Democrats are piping up (hat tip Sirota) about the Obama administration pushing yet another labor arbitrage, badly written NAFTA style bad trade agreement:

an increasingly agitated faction of Democrats is warning party leaders of ugly economic and political consequences if they try to move the Panama agreement.

Not only will it hurt the economy, critics say, but action on a Bush-negotiated trade deal endangers freshman Democrats in 2010 since many ran on a trade reform agenda. In addition, critics say, it doesn’t bode well for Obama to anger a bloc of Democrats early on when he needs their support for his ambitious domestic agenda.

April 2009: The Deflationary Bust Deepens

This morning the BLS reported that consumer inflation ramined unchanged (seasonally adjusted) in April, (rising 0.2% NSA). Year-over-year prices have fallen -0.7% into deflation. YoY consumer deflation is only surpassed by 1949 in the post-Depression era.

The first 4 months of inflation data are still in accord with the optimistic scenario I laid out in January:

In the Optimistic scenario, the fiscal and monetary stimuli, together with intelligent new political leadership in Washington, halt the meltdown perhaps by mid-year, and wage reductions remain the exception. In the Pessimistic scenario, the stimuli fail, and wage reductions spread, leading to a wage-price deflationary spiral.

Here Come the Insurance Companies for TARP money

Now insurance companies are lining up for TARP funds:

Prudential Financial Inc. and Hartford Financial Services Group Inc. are among six insurers granted access to U.S. aid as the government moves to shore up an industry battered by investment losses.

Hartford won preliminary approval for $3.4 billion in capital from the Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program, the Connecticut-based insurer said yesterday in a statement. Prudential, Allstate Corp., Principal Financial Group Inc. and Ameriprise Financial Inc. also are eligible for funds, said Andrew Williams, a spokesman for the Treasury. Lincoln National Corp. said it may receive $2.5 billion.

Need a reference for constituent emal fax ratio to Congress for/against, re TARP

I had read a story or two about communication (email, fax, etc.) to Congress as being something like 600 to 1, or thereabouts. I can't find the reference, after much Googling. Anybody have it?
I want to refer to it for a segment I am writing for my new web site, DemocracyABC .

30% of homeowners would sell at the first sign of a rebound in housing

Normally I would just add this article to Joe's excellent post, but this point is so important that it deserves its own section.

Three out of four U.S. homeowners think the worst is over in the housing market.

And half of the homeowners in Southern states – including Texas – say home prices will stabilize in their areas in the next six months, according to a new survey by Zillow.com.
...
Almost a quarter of homeowners in the South said they think their properties will increase in value during the next six months.

Paulson forced banks to accept bailout money

I hate the Wall Street banks as much as anyone else, but we have to acknowledge that not all the Wall Street banks are the same, and that the federal government is as responsible for this mess as anyone is.

(Bloomberg) -- Former Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson, describing nine U.S. banks as “central to any solution” of the credit crisis, told their leaders to take government aid or be forced to by regulators, according to a memo his staff prepared for a private meeting in October.

“If a capital infusion is not appealing, you should be aware that your regulator will require it in any circumstance,” Paulson’s one-page list of talking points for the session with the banks’ chief executive officers said.

“We don’t believe it is tenable to opt out because doing so would leave you vulnerable and exposed,” the memo said.

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