February 2010

FDIC Quarterly Report - Lowest Reserve Ratio on Record

The FDIC has released it's quarterly report and what pops out at you first is the fact the reserve ratio is currently negative.

FDIC reserve ratio Q4 2009

The Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) decreased by $12.6 billion during the fourth quarter to a negative $20.9 billion (unaudited) primarily because of $17.8 billion in additional provisions for bank failures. Also, unrealized losses on available-for-sale securities combined with operating expenses reduced the fund by $692 million.

Accrued assessment income added $3.1 billion to the fund during the quarter, and interest earned, combined with termination fees on loss share guarantees and surcharges from the Temporary Liquidity Guarantee Program added $2.8 billion. For the year, the fund balance shrank by $38.1 billion, compared to a $35.1 billion decrease in 2008.

We're Gonna See a Bunch of Sovereign Defaults - Former IMF Economist

Harvard and former IMF economist Kenneth Rogoff Sees ‘Bunch of Sovereign Defaults’ :

Several countries are likely to default on their debt in coming years and investors will force the U.S. to pare spending, said Kenneth Rogoff, an economics professor at Harvard University.

Following banking crises, “we usually see a bunch of sovereign defaults, say in a few years. I predict we will again,” Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, said at a forum in Tokyo today.

He said financial markets will eventually drive interest rates higher, and European countries such as Greece and Portugal will “have a lot of troubles.” Global scrutiny of sovereign debt has risen as nations including Greece reveal fiscal deficits that have swollen in the wake of the worst global financial crisis since the Great Depression.

A new term, Backshoring

Remember how so many experts periodically proclaimed those jobs aren't coming back!

You cringed, grimaced and threw things at the pundit du jour all the while your friends, neighbors and probably yourself, were out of a job.

Well, well, some of those jobs are coming back, so much so we have a new term, backshoring to describe the phenomena.

Trade Reform has some more details:

China's "Indigenous" Intellectual Property Government Procurement Policy

This is yet another amazing example of Chinese protectionism, or way beyond protectionism, gosh darn brazen unfair trade practices.

The Hill is reporting Tech groups are trying to get something done on China requiring patents be developed and registered locally for all government purchases. This isn't the product, this is the advanced R&D behind the product!

Wondering now why so much U.S. advanced R&D has moved to China?

China has imposed new procurement rules there require government agencies to purchase equipment only from businesses that develop and register their intellectual property patents locally.

2012: The Mayan Prediction

Alternative Thinking in Economics

I have a friend named Maya, who is very talented at advanced statistics. Over the weekend, together with some others across North America, we sat down to look over the numbers pertaining to unemployment. At least one was online via the telephone (that would be landline to you data comm and SS7 aficionados), the others communicated over the Web.

In looking at those numbers, together with correlating data, we arrived at some rough calculations that might give one pause.

New Obamacare plan online - might hit insurance premium gougers

The Obama administration has unveiled a new plan and put it online at whitehouse.gov.

Ya know the White House needs to reduce their wordiness, especially when it doesn't say much.

One good thing is a rate review of insurance premiums.

One essential policy is “rate review” meaning that health insurers must submit their proposed premium increases to the State authority or Secretary for review. The President’s Proposal strengthens this policy by ensuring that, if a rate increase is unreasonable and unjustified, health insurers must lower premiums, provide rebates, or take other actions to make premiums affordable. A new Health Insurance Rate Authority will be created to provide needed oversight at the Federal level and help States determine how rate review will be enforced and monitor insurance market behavior.

The war on the middle class

“Behind every great fortune lies a great crime.”
- Balzac

Capitalism hasn't failed. What has failed is the economic system in place today.
No amount of government taxes, trade barriers, or regulation caused it to fail.
No investigative reporter, or congressional oversight committee, or regulatory watchdog, exposed the massive fraud and corruption in the financial system today. All of the safeguards put in place to protect the public, and the current system from itself, failed.
The global financial crisis came to light because what amounts to a falling out amongst thieves. They simply stopped trusting the ability of each other to pay their debts. Once lending stopped, credit creation froze, and the Ponzi-scheme that parallels our financial system broke down.

Judge Rakoff Nails JP Morgan

Michael Collins

Federal district court Judge Jed S.  Rakoff called off a J.P. Morgan deal in an order that revealed the inside track on how the financial giant does business. The ruling of January 28 prevents Morgan from selling or participating the $225 million loan it made to Cablevisión, owned in the majority by Grupo Televisa, one of Mexico's largest telecommunications companies.  

The CRE Crisis Hits Home for Renters

The AP has a story up today about the impact of the CRE crisis on apartment complexes. They note that the number of multifamily mortgages in foreclosure is up 1800% over the past two years. With mortgages on the complexes sinking underwater, owners are just up and walking away.

There was no heat or hot water, so for weeks Mary Fountain would fill a bowl and put it in the microwave, then strip off her extra layers to sponge herself clean.

Upstairs, her longtime neighbor, 70-year-old Gearaldine Davis, peers skeptically out at her balcony, hesitant to step onto the cracked concrete. The last time the city inspector came by, he told her he was afraid to walk out there.

The New York Times notices labor arbitrage

Wow. The New York Times, through personal stories notices America is creating the new poor:

Economists fear that the nascent recovery will leave more people behind than in past recessions, failing to create jobs in sufficient numbers to absorb the record-setting ranks of the long-term unemployed.

Call them the new poor: people long accustomed to the comforts of middle-class life who are now relying on public assistance for the first time in their lives — potentially for years to come.

Yet the social safety net is already showing severe strains. Roughly 2.7 million jobless people will lose their unemployment check before the end of April unless Congress approves the Obama administration’s proposal to extend the payments, according to the Labor Department.

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