February 2010

Expecting a tax refund? Better file quick

Last year California delayed their tax refunds because they simply ran out of money to pay them. This year problem is going to be much more widespread.

As New York weighs a potential delay, two other cash-strapped states, North Carolina and Hawaii, have already announced they will put a hold on refunds until June and July, respectively, allowing them to retain funds longer and cover their budget shortfalls with hundreds of millions of dollars owed to individuals and businesses.
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Size matters for Greek bailout

The reason why the bailout of Greece is still in question is the moral hazard it would create throughout the rest of southern Europe. And the price tag is steep.

(Bloomberg) -- Europe may need to stump up as much as 320 billion euros ($441 billion) if it decides to bail out Greece because it would open the door to rescuing other countries in financial distress, according to BNP Paribas.
“To come up with a bailout plan that would be reasonably certain of success, it would have to cover all the most likely candidates, and it would have to be big,” said Paul Mortimer- Lee, global head of market economics at BNP in London. “Size matters when you are trying to scare off speculators and to comfort nervy bondholders.”

State Pension Funds have $1 trillion shortfall

A new study says States have a $1 trillion pension gap:

States may be forced to reduce benefits, raise taxes or slash government services to address a $1 trillion funding shortfall in public sector retirement benefits, according to a new study that warns of even more debilitating costs if immediate action isn't taken.

The Pew Center on the States released a survey Thursday of state-administered pension plans, retiree health care and other post-employment benefits in all 50 states that blamed a decade's worth of policy decisions for leaving them shortchanged.

The result for some states will be "high annual costs that come with significant unfunded liabilities, lower bond ratings, less money available for services, higher taxes and the specter of worsening problems in the future," the study said.

IMF to sell 191.3 tonnes of gold

The IMF is going to sell 191.3 tonnes of gold:

Spot gold XAU= dropped about 1 percent on Thursday after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) said it would sell its remaining gold reserves, but settled in a narrow trading band as the market absorbed the news.

The IMF announced it would begin phased open-market sales of the remaining 191.3 tonnes of gold under a program launched last year to raise new resources for lending. [nN17152668]

Gold was already losing ground early on Thursday and was quoted at $1,114.00 an ounce prior to the IMF statement, which quickly erased a further $8.25 off bullion.

"This wasn't totally unexpected given what the IMF has been saying, but it was still enough to give the market a rattle," a gold dealer in Sydney said.

Spot gold was quoted at $1,108.10 an ounce at 2219 GMT.

Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization for January 2010

January 2010 Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization was released today. We have a solid gain of 0.9% for the month and the year to year also have a 0.9% gain.

Industrial production increased 0.9 percent in January following a gain of 0.7 percent in December. Manufacturing production rose 1.0 percent in January, with increases for most of its major components, while the indexes for both utilities and mining advanced 0.7 percent. At 101.1 percent of its 2002 average, output in January was 0.9 percent above its year-earlier level. The capacity utilization rate for total industry rose 0.7 percentage point to 72.6 percent, a rate 8.0 percentage points below its average from 1972 to 2009.

Of the major groups, even construction had a positive gain of 1%, but down -5.3% for the year.

To put this is context, here is a graph of industrial production from right before the start of this recession.

Greece and Swaps, the saga widens

Earlier we posted derivatives at the heart of the Greek crisis. Now the story widens and the saga continues.

First, Bloomberg reports Goldman Sachs, Greece Didn’t Disclose Swap. In other words Goldman Sachs helped Greece hide it's debt, mortgaging it's future in the process and also didn't tell anyone they had done so.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. managed $15 billion of bond sales for Greece after arranging a currency swap that allowed the government to hide the extent of its deficit.

Populist, Progressive, Liberal - and when populist progressives succeeded

I was inspired by Michael Collins' wonderful article, Where are the Populists?  to make this contribution. I have been spending much time this winter peering through the kaleidoscope of American history at what happened in the early 1900s, when progressives were able to ride a rapidly rising wave of populism to political power, and institute some major reforms that still redound to our advantage today. These progressive populists were able to achieve a number of specific goals, such as direct primaries (to break the rule of state and city political bosses), direct popular election of U.S. Senators (to break the stranglehold large business and financial interests had acquired over the selection process in state legislatures), and some reforms within the U.S. Congress that curtailed the power of entrenched interests by curbing some of the administrative power of House Speaker Joseph Cannon.

TIC report for December 2009

The TIC reports has some damning news on Foreigners dumping U.S. Treasuries, especially China.

Firstly, what is the TIC? TIC stands for Treasury International Capital Data and it is a monthly report on who has bought and sold all stocks and bonds coming in and out of the country.

From the FAQ:

The Treasury International Capital (TIC) reporting system collects data for the United States on cross-border portfolio investment flows and positions between U.S. residents (including U.S.-based branches of firms headquartered in other countries) and foreign residents (including offshore branches of U.S. firms)

From this month's press release:

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