A 1st estimate of Q1 2010 GDP was released Friday and the advanced report is 3.2%. Here is the Q4 2009 GDP estimate. In the initial report, consumer spending (PCE) more than doubled in it's GDP contribution from Q4 2009.
The Chicago Federal Reserve's National Activity Index (CFNAI) came in to -0.07, up from a revised February, of -0.44. The CFNAI-MA3 means the 3 month moving average of the CFNAI. This index is volatile, so the three month moving average is typically the more important metric.
The index’s three-month moving average, CFNAI-MA3, increased to –0.18 in March from –0.31 in February. March’s CFNAI-MA3 suggests that growth in national economic activity, while still below average, continues to improve. With regard to inflation, the amount of economic slack reflected in the CFNAI-MA3 indicates subdued inflationary pressure from economic activity over the coming year.
Production-related indicators made a contribution of +0.18 to the index in March, compared with +0.04 in February. Manufacturing industrial production increased 0.9 percent in March after increasing 0.2 percent in February, and manufacturing capacity utilization rose to 70.0 percent in March from 69.4 percent in the previous month. The manufacturing capacity utilization rate in March reached its highest level since November 2008.
These are strange days. There was a time when there was a clear divide between fiction and reality, but those days are passing. For instance, this amusing article from Andy Borowitz.
(The Borowitz Report) – Eleven indicted Somali pirates dropped a bombshell in a U.S. court today, revealing that their entire piracy operation is a subsidiary of banking giant Goldman Sachs.
There was an audible gasp in the courtroom when the leader of the pirates announced, “We are doing God’s work. We work for Lloyd Blankfein.”
The article was meant to be snarky and not taken seriously, but those are the kind of stories you have to keep the closest eye on. They tend to have a way of transforming from punchline to headline.
"I have always noticed that people will never laugh at anything that is not based on truth."
- Will Rogers
Bloomberg is reporting Congress may limit total unemployment insurance benefits to 99 weeks. Because of the record long term unemployed, that's going to kick off over a million people still collecting and also being counted in the unemployment rate!
It's almost a certainty that there will be a settlement," said a source.
As another person put it, the SEC has an "unlimited supply of ammunition" in the form of e-mails and records that it could release, and Goldman officials would like to avoid having those documents fired back at them the way they were on Tuesday.
The GOP has removed their block against moving forward with Financial Reform.
The bill was reported to the floor Wednesday night and debate is set to begin on Thursday.
The real question is what compromised, watered down, ineffectual, lobbyist driven compromise was made? (as if the Dodd Bill itself wasn't swiss cheese).
Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) released a statement Wednesday afternoon touting “a key agreement” to resolve disagreements over a $50 billion fund to liquidate troubled banks.
As a result, there will not be any more votes on the Senate floor Wednesday and Democrats will not keep the chamber in session overnight.
Barofsky says the question of whether the New York Fed engaged in a coverup will result in some sort of action.
“We’re either going to have criminal or civil charges against individuals or we’re going to have a report,” Barofsky says. “This is too important for us not to share our findings.”
He won’t say whether the investigation is targeting Geithner personally.
The California Treasury has issued a press release on Big Banks selling their bonds and betting California defaults. The vehicle which the default bets are placed are.....CDSes or credit default swaps.
State Treasurer Bill Lockyer today released data that show the top six fee earners among investment banks that sell California bonds have, since 2007, completed more than $27.5 billion of trades in a market where investors can profit by taking a dim view of the State’s credit risk.
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