The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator, dropped 30.0 percent to 77.6 based on contracts signed in May from a reading of 110.9 in April, and is 15.9 percent below May 2009 when it was 92.3. The falloff comes on the heels of three strong monthly gains as home buyers rushed to take advantage of the tax credit.
While this was expected, the 15.9% below May 2009 is the number to look at. Even more interesting while NAR reports:
The data reflects contracts and not closings, which normally occur with a lag time of one or two months. However, many closings have been delayed recently from a rush of buyers into the system and slow processing of short sales, in addition to the heavy volume and a more thorough loan underwriting process. As many as 180,000 buyers who signed contracts by April 30 may have missed the June 30 closing deadline for the tax credit.
The reality is Congress passed an extension of the homebuyer's tax credit, yet to be signed into law. CBS MarketWatch:
Most readers on this site know initial weekly unemployment claims is a volatile number, subject to revisions. Tomorrow the monthly unemployment report will be released. Regardless the below graph shows a disturbing trend in weekly initial unemployment claims, they simply are not going down to pre-recession levels. The 4-week average on initial unemployment claims is as high as March 2010.
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