January 2012

Initial Unemployment Claims were 372,000 for December 31st, 2011

Initial weekly unemployment claims for the week ending on December 31st, 2011 were 372,000. The DOL reports this as a decrease of 15,000 from last week. The previous report, two weeks ago due to the holiday, was revised, from 387,000 from 381,000, an increase of 6,000. Initial unemployment claims are well below the magic 400,000 number, which indicates any job growth.

ADP Employment Report - 325,000 Private Sector Jobs for December 2011

ADP, released their proprietary private payrolls jobs report and it's a blow out. This month ADP is reporting a gain of 325,000 private sector jobs in December. November 2011 was revised down from 206,000 to 204,000. Below are the reported private sector jobs from ADP. This report does not include government, or public jobs.

 

It Is Over! Thank God!

dweedledum$13 million, 13 debates which said ...oops....I can't remember what was said, media black outs on some candidates, talking pundits ad nauseum and 6 months later, the Iowa caucuses are finally over. Thank God! 122,255 people decided who to pick in the Republican Iowa caucuses. That's about one hundred dollars per vote. The millions in spending bought actually a guy who had the least amount of money.

Construction Spending Increased 1.2% in November 2011

The Census, part of the Commerce Department, today released the monthly construction spending report. This is a monthly tally of how much money was spent on construction and the survey has been done since 1960. The below graph shows just how badly construction spending imploded since 2008. Dollars are not adjusted for inflation, so the overall decline is even more dramatic.

 

Peak Money Arrives

The world is running out of money. If money is credit, and credit relies on confidence, there is not enough confidence in the financial system to supply the world with the money it needs. Since the initial credit crisis struck in 2008, credit and money have been withdrawn from the system in such staggering amounts that international trade can no longer grow. The world’s central banks are playing a rear guard action by acting as lender of last resort to banks that no longer trust each other and have stopped lending in the interbank market. As liquidity flows out from the system, the rottenness that has corrupted the foundations of global finance is now exposed for all to see.

This was especially evident in the bankruptcy of MF Global, when the unthinkable happened – innocent bystanders on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange were stuck with over $1.0 billion in losses that should otherwise have been allocated to MF Global’s lenders. For over 100 years the futures exchanges have bragged that no customer on an exchange has lost money due to a broker-dealer’s default. No longer. This is how confidence is lost in the financial system – investors are surprised by large losses from institutions or products thought to be impregnable.

The Obligatory Economic Predictions for 2012

labrea tar pitA new year, a new day and a flurry of economic and financial predictions. Who are we to buck the trend? Yet, buck the trend we shall. While many news articles claim jobs will appear in 2012 and the economy is on the mend, uh, we don't think so. What we have is America stuck in a Labrea tar pit of bad policy and a never ending middle class head shrink.

 

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