September 2012

Bernanke Says We Don't Have Tools Strong Enough to Solve the Unemployment Problem Yet Does QE3

federal reserve buildingMore quantitative easing is here. The Federal Reserve will increase purchases of mortgage-backed securities and agency debt by $340 billion by December 31st, 2012. From the FOMC statement:

The Committee agreed today to increase policy accommodation by purchasing additional agency mortgage-backed securities at a pace of $40 billion per month.

The Committee also will continue through the end of the year its program to extend the average maturity of its holdings of securities as announced in June, and it is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities. These actions, which together will increase the Committee’s holdings of longer-term securities by about $85 billion each month through the end of the year

More astounding is the promise to continue to make MBS purchases until the employment rate is acceptable.

If the outlook for the labor market does not improve substantially, the Committee will continue its purchases of agency mortgage-backed securities, undertake additional asset purchases, and employ its other policy tools as appropriate until such improvement is achieved in a context of price stability. In determining the size, pace, and composition of its asset purchases, the Committee will, as always, take appropriate account of the likely efficacy and costs of such purchases.

The Rich and the Rest of Us in the United States

Most of America is poor, broke, and getting poorer. So shows new Census statistics for 2011. Real median income for households declined 1.5% to $50,054 and has declined for the second year in a row. The household median income is 8.1% lower than 2007 and 8.9% lower than 1999!   The median belies the growing income inequality in the United States. Below is the Census graph of real household income by selected percentiles and illustrates our tragic unequal state. The top 5% increased their income by 66.2% while the the median income has only increased 19% since 1967. Real means inflation is removed.

household income percentile 2011

Trade Deficit No Change, Increased 0.25% for July 2012

The U.S. July 2012 monthly trade deficit was essentially unchanged, and increased 0.25%, or $103 million, from June to $42.002 billion. Exports decreased $1.81 billion, or -0.98%. Imports declined $1.81 billion, or -0.80%. June's trade deficit was revised from $42.924 billion to $41.899 billion.

 

How Many Jobs Are Needed to Keep Up with Population Growth?

The press quotes all sorts of figures for the number of monthly job gains needed to keep up with population growth. We see numbers like 80,000, 100,000, 125,000 and 175,000 thrown around like statistical snow as the number of jobs needed each month just to keep up. What's the right one? How many jobs are needed each month just to keep up with population growth?

BLS Employment Report Shows 96,000 Jobs and an Unemployment Rate of 8.1% for August 2012

The August 2012 BLS unemployment report shows total nonfarm payroll jobs gained were 96,000. Even worse news, the last two months of job gains were revised down. July's gains are now 141,000, revised from 163,000 payroll jobs and June is a now a measly 45,000 jobs, also revised down from 64,000.

ECB Outright MonetaryTransaction Action In the Face of Recession Redux

euro symbolThe ECB, Europe's Central Bank, has launched a sovereign bond buying program, arguing for price stability and to make it clear the Euro is here to stay. ECB President Mario Draghi:

It is against this background that the Governing Council today decided on the modalities for undertaking Outright Monetary Transactions (OMTs) in secondary markets for sovereign bonds in the euro area. As we said a month ago, we need to be in the position to safeguard the monetary policy transmission mechanism in all countries of the euro area. We aim to preserve the singleness of our monetary policy and to ensure the proper transmission of our policy stance to the real economy throughout the area. OMTs will enable us to address severe distortions in government bond markets which originate from, in particular, unfounded fears on the part of investors of the reversibility of the euro. Hence, under appropriate conditions, we will have a fully effective backstop to avoid destructive scenarios with potentially severe challenges for price stability in the euro area. Let me repeat what I said last month: we act strictly within our mandate to maintain price stability over the medium term; we act independently in determining monetary policy; and the euro is irreversible.

This is an unlimited, open ended, short term maturity of one to three years, Euro area governments' bonds buy back program. The details are as warranted, dependent upon market conditions and at market value.

ADP Employment Report - 201,000 Private Sector Jobs for August 2012

ADP, released their proprietary private payrolls jobs report for August 2012. This month ADP is reporting a gain of 201,000 private sector jobs. July 2012 was revised up by 10,000 to 173,000 private payrolls gains. In contrast, the BLS reported 163,000 private sector jobs for July 2012.

A Select Comparison/Contrast of the Democratic & Republican Platforms on Issues Important to U.S. Workers

With the political convention rhetoric soaring and political ads about to carpet bomb the airwaves, we thought it might be useful to comparison/contrast the Democratic and Republican platforms and show for U.S. workers both have policy agendas which will damage the middle class. The Democratic platform is here and the Republican one, seemingly not even indexed by Google, is here, in large pdf form. Let's take economic and labor issues and compare them side by side.

 

Comparison of Democrat and Republican Platforms 

Issue

Democrat

Republican

U.S. Worker Choice
University Green Card ATM Yes Yes Both Bad
More Guest Worker Visas Yes Yes Both Bad
China Currency Manipulator No Yes GOP
Bad Trade Deals Yes Yes Both Bad
Financial Reform Yes No Dem
Student Loans Yes No Dem
Outsourcing Yes Yes Both Bad
Unlimited Migration/Immigration Yes No GOP
Unions Yes No Dem
Taxes on the Rich Yes No Dem

 

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