November 2014

Q3 GDP Surprisingly Revised Upward by Half a Percentage Point to 3.9%

Third quarter 2014 real GDP was revised upward to 3.9% from the original 3.5%.  The reason was investment, as changes in private inventories were revised sharply upward.  Consumer spending was also stronger by over a quarter of a percentage point and also bumped up the revision.  Imports were revised upward and exports downward which subtracted from economic growth.  Overall Q3 GDP was surprisingly strong in this Turkey surprise.

Democrats Running on Empty and Living on a Prayer

In the 2014 elections, the Democrats' only "Hail Mary" hope in Hell had been, not just keeping the Senate, but winning back the House as well. Now (maybe for an entire generation) the Democrats have lost almost any chance at all of getting back any meaningful political power in Washington for a very long time to come — because their messaging during the 2014 elections was such an utter and dismal failure.

Retail Sales Rose 0.3% in October, Reversing September’s Decline

The Advance Retail Sales Report for October (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that our total seasonally adjusted retail and food services sales were at $444.5 billion in October, which was an increase of 0.3% (±0.5%)* from the revised September sales of $443.0 billion, and 4.1% (±0.9%) above sales in October of last year..  Recall that the asterisk on October’s sales indicates that from their small sampling of retail outlets, Censu

Industrial Production October Ho-Hum, Capacity Utilization Still Stunted

The Federal Reserve Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization report shows a -1.0% decline in industrial production for October and September was revised down to 0.8% growth.  Manufacturing alone grew by 0.2%, but utilities dropped by -0.7% after last month's large gain.  Mining also decreased by almost a percentage point, -0.9%.

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