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1946! Interest rates, inflation, and war

I'm not a trader, and I don't put much faith in short term charts the likes of which you typically see in financial porn. Longer term charts, however, are more interesting. It is much easier to separate the signal (or trend) from the noise, and the "trend" is a reflection of the economic psychology of the public. Not just that part of the public that invests, but the public who buys houses and has mortgages, buys cars and retail and pays on credit, or even saves in CDs and money market accounts. In short, just about everybody.

Households Spend More Than Income

Despite no real change in January spending, for the first time on record households spent more than all current incomes for the 3rd consecutive month.

Today’s BEA report on personal income and spending shows that price-adjusted household spending was unchanged in January. Nevertheless, total household spending in January was more than ALL after-tax incomes as households again dipped into savings or fell deeper into debt for a record third consecutive month.

Note that these are not “median” figures but total income and spending for ALL households including those few that received very large bonuses in January.

Nominal New Home Prices Plunge

Nominal new home prices plunge record -15.1% yr/yr to January yet sales plunge and inventories soar; durable goods orders also plunged in January.

The key finding in today’s Census Bureau report on new single-family home sales in January is that the median nominal price plunged -15.1% yr/yr, the worst decline on record back to 1963. New home prices were down -7.8% in the year ending December 2007.

Also very important is that the inventory of unsold new homes soared to a 9.9 month supply in January, the worst glut of empty new homes since October 1981. Unsold inventories represented a 9.5 month supply in December and a 7.2 month supply in January 2007.

Housing Prices, Histogram

unsold homes, inventory, histogram

Your Tax Dollars Offshoring Jobs

This is my second story about OPIC – OVERSEAS PRIVATE INVESTMENT CORPORATION – a Department of the United States Treasury. This one is based on the OPIC 2006 Annual Report. It contrasts my earlier report on OPIC 1999. Robert Mosbacher, Jr., CEO of Mosbacher Petroleum, is the new CEO of OPIC. Mosbacher Petroleum was skimming money off ENRON back in the 80’s. OPIC was giving money directly to the oil companies. Now banks are skimming money off the U.S. Treasury and lending it to the oil companies.

Taking on some Redstate BS

Over at Redstate a econ-wingnut named Pejman Yousefzadeh claims he is schooling David Leonhardt, a NY Times reporter who discussed economic conditions in Ohio, including the fact that:

Back in 2000, the typical Ohio family was still making more money than the typical American family, according to Moody’s Economy.com. But over the last eight years, real median income in Ohio has dropped almost 10 percent, to about $47,000, leaving it $2,300 below the national median.

Our Redstate blogger says Leonhardt owes a retraction, relying on a 2007 Cato institute study that claims: [my response in brackets]

Contrary to public perceptions:
Trade has had no discernible, negative effect on the number of jobs in the U.S. economy. Our economy today is at full employment, with 16.5 million more people working than a decade ago.

2 housing crisis proposals Democrats should support

Like many people, I loathe the idea of a housing "bailout" for the greedy, the reckless, and the spendthrift. Certainly those bankers and borrowers had no problem "privatising their gains" in the early part of this decade. I see no reason why they should look to the prudent and the thrifty now, especially when so many millions of those prudent and thrifty are those whose own dreams of owning a home of their own at a reasonable price were frozen out by the housing mania.
But out of crisis comes opportunity. In this case, the opportunity for the Democratic party to show average Americans what a Democratic majority would do for them and their financial well-being. The opportunity to earn their trust and their votes for years to come. To show that a party that believes in governance for the average citizen can separate the wolves from the sheep, penalizing the former and acting with basic humanity to the latter.

Seven Year Old Owes Back Taxes For $60K Earnings

7 year old Carpentersville Illinois resident is just the latest victim in identity theft. The seven year old received a letter from the IRS requested payment of taxes owed from past earning of $60,000. This second grader had his Social Security Number stolen and illegally used by a Cirilo Centeno, 29 of Streamwood, Illinois. Cirilio Centeno admits he purchased the Social Security Number for $50 in 2001. And has used the card number to obtain employment, a truck, utilities for his home, a credit card, and unemployment benefits.

The Horizon Project

You have probably never heard of the Horizon Project or even Ralph Gomory and William Baumol and their book on Trade and Conflicting Interests..

But, these policy proposals are unique, innovative and deserve strong consideration and discussion.

The Horizon Project's Agenda:

Project members believe we need to act now - on economic & trade policy issues, education, health care and public infrastructure investment - to stave off the rosion of our competitive advantages and the loss of the nation's middle class base

Bill Gates is at it again

What is it with the super wealthy in this country? They make their billions in this country and instead of just retiring and disappearing, they keep pushing economic policies that continue to run the middle class into the ground? And they continue to do this even though the economy is going into the tank.

Bill was up in Canada claiming Microsoft forced to look for talent in developing countries. Once again Gates spreads the "technology worker shortage myth" claiming that poor Microsoft, the alleged victim of the "strict government H-1B policy" cannot hire enough technology workers in the U.S. This is his big lie that he continually repeats.

If hiring talent was a problem for Microsoft, I would probably be working there right now, instead of working temporary contract jobs with weak benefits and no hope of being able to save for retirement. If Microsoft has a problem hiring talent, it is due to the age discrimination that they practice, along with all the other big corporations based here in Washington State (and across the country). Also, they need to fix the way that they deal with contractors. They hire thousands of contractors, which make up most of their workforce now days. The contractors also have a limit of 1 year on the job, after which they are forced to leave Microsoft and seek employment elsewhere. If Microsoft was really having trouble hiring, they would put a stop to this practice as well.

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