The February personal income and outlays report shows personal income bounced back by 1.1% from last month's nose dive that was due to the payroll tax holiday expiration and fiscal cliff deal. Disposable income increased 1.1% but after adjusted for inflation, shows a monthly increase of 0.7%. Consumer spending increased 0.7%, but when adjsted for inflation grew by 0.3% for the month.
The January personal income and outlays report is horrific. Personal Income nose dived -3.6% from December and hasn't seen this big of a monthly drop since January 1993. That's 20 years ago. The blame is being laid on the payroll tax holiday expiration and December did see a rise in personal income also not seen since December 2004. Disposable income is worse. DPI dropped -4.0%, even when adjusted for inflation. Ouch!
Q4 2012 real GDP grew by just 0.1% after the second revision. While technically not in contraction, 4th quarter gross domestic product results imply the economy was officially D.O.A. Trade imports plunged, which helped economic growth. Government spending cliff dove and sucked out -1.38 percentage points from 4th quarter real gross domestic product growth as federal defense spending declined 22.0% from Q3. Private inventory changes hacked off -1.55 percentage points from Q4 real GDP as businesses shed their inventories. Even without inventories in the economic growth mix, the economy is still suffering from weak demand.
Q4 2012 real GDP contracted by -0.1%. Inventory investment nose dived, but was not the lone culprit for economic contraction. Exports plunged and took -0.81 real GDP percentage points along with it. Government spending cliff dove and hacked off -1.33 percentage points from 4th quarter gross domestic product as Federal Defense spending declined 22.2% from Q3.
Q3 2012 real GDP shows 3.1% annualized growth, revised from 2.7% in the second estimate. Consumer spending increased more than previously estimated, exports were greater and imports were much less. Q2 GDP was 1.25% in actuality, 1.3% is a rounded figure.
The October personal income and outlay's report is not good news. Consumer spending decreased -0.2% from last month, and when adjusted for inflation was a -0.3% decline for October. Consumer spending is another term for personal consumption expenditures or PCE.
October 2012 Retail Sales decreased, by -0.3%, Autos & Parts alone dropped -1.5% while auto dealers, part of autos & parts sales, declined by -1.6%. Minus autos & parts, retail sales had no change from last month. September's monthly percentage change was revised upward, from 1.1% to 1.3%. Retail sales are reported by dollars, not by volume, so dropping prices often reports as a decline in sales.
Americans spent more than they earned. That's what's implied in the BEA's September personal income and outlay's report. Consumer spending increased 0.8% from last month, and when adjusted for inflation was a 0.4% increase for September. Consumer spending is another term for personal consumption expenditures or PCE.
Consumer spending increased 0.5% from last month, yet when adjusted for inflation was only a 0.1% increase for August. Consumer spending is a name coined by the press and means personal consumption expenditures or PCE. Real personal consumption expenditures are hugely important to economic growth as consumer spending is about 71% of GDP.
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