ISM Non-Manufacturing index for January 2010 at 50.5%

The Non-manufacturing ISM index was released today. We have:

  • NMI is at 50.5%
  • Business Activity Index at 52.2%
  • New Orders Index at 54.7%
  • Employment Index at 44.6%

The NMI (Non-Manufacturing Index) registered 50.5 percent in January, 0.7 percentage point higher than the seasonally adjusted 49.8 percent registered in December, indicating growth in the non-manufacturing sector. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased 1 percentage point to 52.2 percent, reflecting growth for the second consecutive month. The New Orders Index increased 2.7 percentage points to 54.7 percent, and the Employment Index increased 1 percentage point to 44.6 percent. The Prices Index increased 1.6 percentage points to 61.2 percent in January, indicating an increase in prices paid from December.

ISM NON-MANUFACTURING SURVEY RESULTS AT A GLANCE JANUARY 2010
Index Series
Index
Jan.
Series
Index
Dec.
% Pt.
Chg.
Dir. Rate of
Chg.
Trend
(Mon.)
NMI 50.5 49.8 +0.7 Growing From Contract. 1
Business Activity/Production 52.2 53.2 -1.0 Growing Slower 2
New Orders 54.7 52.0 +2.7 Growing Faster 5
Employment 44.6 43.6 +1.0 Contracting Slower 25
Supplier Deliveries 50.5 50.5 0.0 Slowing Same 2
Inventories 46.5 51.5 -5.0 Contracting From Grow. 1
Prices 61.2 59.6 +1.6 Increasing Faster 6
Backlog of Orders 45.5 48.0 -2.5 Contracting Faster 3
New Export Orders 46.0 46.0 0.0 Contracting Same 2
Imports 47.0 52.5 -5.5 Contracting From Grow. 1
Inventory Sentiment 64.5 61.0 +3.5 Too High Faster 152

Note the 152 months of inventory sentiment trend. This is a joke, that's over 12 years of a trend.

What's in the NMI? Recall, since U.S. manufacturing has been shrunk by offshore outsourcing, this index now tracks about 89% of the entire economy. Yet, look at this, we have 11 out of 15 industries in this sector contracting. Not good.

Here are two graphs of the business activity index. The first is this recession.

 

Hey, looks pretty good if you take that time period...
The second is since the index started.

 

 

Ouch, you can see how below we are in comparison to even this horrible lost job decade and also compare to just the jobless recovery 2001-2002 recession.

Below are the details on the 15 industries, which ones expanded and which ones contracted.

The four industries reporting growth in January based on the NMI composite index are: Other Services; Utilities; Information; and Wholesale Trade. The 11 industries reporting contraction in January — listed in order — are: Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Mining; Retail Trade; Transportation & Warehousing; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Finance & Insurance; Educational Services; Public Administration; and Accommodation & Food Services.

Of interest is how the ISM notes new seasonal adjustments released from the U.S. Commerce Department, are now part of this report. Ah, the mysterious seasonal adjustments.

This months Manufacturing ISM is covered in this post.

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body shops

Even worse, body shops, which are Indian (usually) companies using the intra-corporate transfer visa, the L-1 as well as the H-1B and even the H-2B, are pouring into these jobs...if they cannot or have not already offshore outsourced them, via "contracts", so IT never recovered from the 2000 dot con bust and offshore outsourcing, use of guest worker Visas is the real reason why.

Even the DOL recently tried to hire a web developer in India for $4400 per year. Yes, that's your U.S. Dept. of Labor.

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