It's Official, We're in a Recession, Well, Almost

GDP expected to show contraction:

Real gross domestic product -- the broadest measure of the economy's output -- probably fell at an annual rate of 0.6% in the third quarter, economists surveyed by MarketWatch

GDP chart

click to enlarge

The UK GDP has already declined 0.5% when 0.4% was expected.

Growth is likely to get much weaker, with economists now expecting three consecutive quarters of negative growth before an anemic recovery in the second half of 2009, assuming that credit markets recover some normal functioning soon. If they don't, growth could contract much more severely

Note, this is basically New Deal Democrat's debate of an anemic recovery or a deepening recession.

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You have to have housing

It's one of the basic marks of a modern nation- you have to have housing.

Without housing, you are going to quickly end up with large numbers of young people who have no investment in real estate and nothing to do- guaranteed widespread violence and vandalism.

Therefore, I predict that even if BernakeMagicBucks addition to the money supply eliminates deflation for now, it will at best be a short term solution, one that runs the risk of wide scale rioting and revolution.

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Maximum jobs, not maximum profits.