GDP

Construction Spending Up 1.1% for October 2014

The Census released the monthly construction spending report today.  Spending was $971 billion in October, up +1.1% from September and an increase of +3.3% from October 2013.  This is a rebound from last month with the largest gain in five months.  September was revised upward from -0.4% to -0.,1%.  For just 2014, spending has increased 5.8%.

Q3 GDP Surprisingly Revised Upward by Half a Percentage Point to 3.9%

Third quarter 2014 real GDP was revised upward to 3.9% from the original 3.5%.  The reason was investment, as changes in private inventories were revised sharply upward.  Consumer spending was also stronger by over a quarter of a percentage point and also bumped up the revision.  Imports were revised upward and exports downward which subtracted from economic growth.  Overall Q3 GDP was surprisingly strong in this Turkey surprise.

Another Strong Quarter for GDP, Q3 3.5%

Third quarter 2014 real GDP came in at a strong 3.5%.  This is the second quarter in a row for solid economic growth.  Q1 showed a contraction  Take a good look for Q3 GDP will be revised and we estimate strongly downward as imports come into the Census for tabulation.  Private inventories contracted, hence investment was much less than Q2.  Consumer spending was also tamer.  Overall Q3 GDP was surprisingly solid.

 

Q2 2014 GDP a Strong 4.6%

Q2 2014 real GDP was revised to 4.6%, a strong showing not seen since Q4 2011.  Q2 Gross Domestic Product also cancels out the dismal Q1 -2.1% real GDP contraction for the year.  Growth was across the board.  Investment showed large growth.  Personal consumption expenditures increased and were a large component of GDP. Changes in private inventories was a large GDP contribution, but so were exports.

Q4 GDP Downgrades to a Measly 2.4%

Q4 2013 real GDP was revised significantly downward from the original 3.2% to a weak, measly 2.4%.  Personal consumption expenditures was revised down over half a percentage point of GDP.  The original estimate for exports was also revised down over a quarter of a percentage point.  If the Q4 downward revision in consumer spending isn't bad enough, for all of 2013 annual real GDP was just 1.9%.  In 2012, annual GDP was 2.8%.

 

Another Month, Another Drop in Durable Goods New Orders

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders declined by -1.0% for January 2014, but December 2013 new orders were revised downward to a -5.3% plunge.  The better news of this report is core capital goods increased by 1.7%.  For the last three of four months durable goods new orders as a whole have declined.

Durable Goods New Orders Bomb Out for December 2013

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders plunged by -4.3% for December 2013 after a 2.6% increase in November.  The really bad news in this report is core capital goods declined by -1.3%.  For the last two of three months durable goods new orders as a whole have declined.  While December is shaping up to a bad month for the economy, a word of caution as durable goods are often revised dramatically.

 

GDP By Industry for 2012

The BEA has released revisions for Gross Domestic Product by Industry for years 1997 all the way to 2012.  Unfortunately but not surprising, manufacturing was revised downward in their real value added to economic growth.  Overall GDP grew 2.8% in 2012 and that year's better news is private goods GDP increased more in growth in comparison to private sector services.

 

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