GDP

Q2 2014 GDP a Strong 4.6%

Q2 2014 real GDP was revised to 4.6%, a strong showing not seen since Q4 2011.  Q2 Gross Domestic Product also cancels out the dismal Q1 -2.1% real GDP contraction for the year.  Growth was across the board.  Investment showed large growth.  Personal consumption expenditures increased and were a large component of GDP. Changes in private inventories was a large GDP contribution, but so were exports.

Q4 GDP Downgrades to a Measly 2.4%

Q4 2013 real GDP was revised significantly downward from the original 3.2% to a weak, measly 2.4%.  Personal consumption expenditures was revised down over half a percentage point of GDP.  The original estimate for exports was also revised down over a quarter of a percentage point.  If the Q4 downward revision in consumer spending isn't bad enough, for all of 2013 annual real GDP was just 1.9%.  In 2012, annual GDP was 2.8%.

 

Another Month, Another Drop in Durable Goods New Orders

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders declined by -1.0% for January 2014, but December 2013 new orders were revised downward to a -5.3% plunge.  The better news of this report is core capital goods increased by 1.7%.  For the last three of four months durable goods new orders as a whole have declined.

Durable Goods New Orders Bomb Out for December 2013

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders plunged by -4.3% for December 2013 after a 2.6% increase in November.  The really bad news in this report is core capital goods declined by -1.3%.  For the last two of three months durable goods new orders as a whole have declined.  While December is shaping up to a bad month for the economy, a word of caution as durable goods are often revised dramatically.

 

GDP By Industry for 2012

The BEA has released revisions for Gross Domestic Product by Industry for years 1997 all the way to 2012.  Unfortunately but not surprising, manufacturing was revised downward in their real value added to economic growth.  Overall GDP grew 2.8% in 2012 and that year's better news is private goods GDP increased more in growth in comparison to private sector services.

 

Durable Goods Shoots Way Up, 3.5% New Order Gain for November 2013

The Durable Goods, advance report shows new orders increased by 3.5% for November 2013 after a -0.7% decrease in October.   The really good news in this report is the growth in core capital goods.  New orders in core capital goods increased 4.5% for November  This report is often revised dramatically, yet even inventories did not decline.   Even without volatile aircraft durable goods new orders increased.

 

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