Two years ago -- actually two years and 3 days ago, on November 28, 2006, I wrote a note called Recession now looks likely, in which, citing a decline in manufacturing that had been running strong through the duration of the post-9/11 recovery:
a recession is likely to occur within 12 months, and may in fact have already started.
Although manufacturing subsequently stabilized, the gradual decline of consumer conditions caused me to keep the recession call intact. So, from the NBER today, we find out that I missed the window by 3 days. The recession started in December 2007.