Q2 GDP to be cut by at least half

The GDP for the second quarter disappointed at 2.4%, less than forecast.
Now it turns out that even that number was wildly optimistic.

The U.S. trade deficit widened in June, and the new numbers released this morning indicate that second-quarter growth was even more anemic than the originally reported 2.4% annual rate.
Last week, updated figures on inventories indicated that gross-domestic-product growth in the second quarter would be revised lower — to around 1.7%. Today’s data on trade suggest the revised figure may be closer to 1%, or even as low as 0.3%.

There are lots of guesses out there. Most of them are clustering around the 1.2%- 1.3% range.

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anybody have the annualized trade equation?

Damn our government. In the GDP report, they annualize trade data, so I'm trying to go from seasonal adjustments, monthly to quarterly that is annualized and I'm missing a formula.

I had, before the Q2 2010 GDP report, it coming in at 1.4-1.7%. That was not with the massive inventory changes as well as the current new massive trade deficit.

So, I'm trying to determine a new guesstimate, and I cannot find the formula they are using to take monthly SA import/export amounts to the annual. I'd guess it's compounded but it's not coming out right here.

Who has the mathematics and it's fine for me if you point to even a Matlab script for this stuff?

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Looking for real time GDP estimation code/formulas/script

I spent a lot of time trying to take the monthly trade data and figuring out how much of Q2 GDP it's going to shave off. I have the price indexes, but I think there might be a different formula going into real chained 2005 dollars or something because I couldn't get the numbers to match up.

So, if anyone has some sort of GDP estimation software by taking government economic report data and entering it, I'd really like to get ahold of it. I can handle Python and Matlab as well as Excel/spreadsheets.

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Wasn't Germany one of the

Wasn't Germany one of the countries that managed to stay out of the massive bail-out plans? Maybe we should have followed?

German economy sees 'record' growth of 2.2%

"Such quarter-on-quarter growth has never been recorded before in reunified Germany," the national statistics office, Destatis, said.

French economy - 0.6%
Spanish economy - 0.2%,
Italian economy - at 0.4%.

Greece - shrank by 1.5% during the quarter.

I know! Let's spend more money and go deeper in debt! Hm :(

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Germany had stimulus

about $100 billion euros. Their banks also got bailed out, much of it from U.S. money (see latest COP report overview).

Sorry, but they had conditions to keep their money domestic as well as hire German workers.

There is Stimulus and then there is spending.

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US Money

Our money ...that stinks!

You all follow this stuff very closely. I just that Germany was more about savings.

From Spiegel

"German Chancellor Angela Merkel has chosen the path of austerity to push her country out of a debt crisis that threatens to weigh on generations to come. Two German economists debate the merits of the government's savings program on SPIEGEL ONLINE: Should Berlin cut back or spend to ensure economic health?"

"Government savings can even produce economic growth. But Berlin didn't go far enough."

"It's like a reflex: As soon as Chancellor Angela Merkel's governing coalition introduced its austerity program, critics complain that it is socially unbalanced and will hinder economic growth. The same thing has happened before. When former German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt introduced a far-reaching package of spending cuts in the early 1980s in an effort to stabilize the federal budget, the so-called experts hastily calculated that the already troubled economy would lose one half of a percentage point of growth. They were wrong. Shortly thereafter, the long-lasting boom of the 1980s began."

Has the USA talked much of savings and cutting? If so I must have missed it.

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point is

Germany didn't do that and you see a healthy GDP. You can see the results of Greece. You don't get that there is a huge difference in types of spending either. There is investment, stimulus and then what the Obama administration did which was obviously inefficient, focused on Wall Street and the rest of the country be damned, except for UI extensions.

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things didn't change did they

"focused on Wall Street and the rest of the country be damned, except for UI extensions."

Seems that we will never get out of the constant money flowing in the same direction. I think the people that voted for "change" should really have learned the lesson of money. Next time they need to see where and who a candidate is giving support money.

Billionaires and the associations they put together to elect a President won't give money and expect nothing back.

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that's the bottom line

Whether you lean to the left, right or mixed bag, that's the real issue. We have a government, regardless of party that is completely bought and paid for, run, by corporate lobbyists.

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