Home

The Economic Populist

Speak Your Mind 2 Cents at a Time

Discussion

  • Forums
    • Labor Economics
      • Labor
      • Outsourcing/Insourcing
        • Immigration
        • Professional Labor Issues
    • Macro Economics
      • Fiscal, Monetary Policy
      • Global
      • Tax Policy
      • Trade Policy
      • Wall Street
    • Politics
      • Congress
      • Executive Branch
    • Admin
  • Home
  • Reads
  • Discuss
  • RSS Feed
  • Twitter
  • About
  • Contact
Home Blogs Robert Oak's blog

New blog posts

  • The Privatization of Everything
  • Sunday Morning Comics - MisFortune Cookies Edition
  • Must Read Posts for March 13, 2010
  • Friday Movie Night - China Currency Manipulation & Make Markets Be Markets
  • Lehman Brothers - If you are experiencing Déjà vu, that's because it is GroundHog Day!
  • U.S. Manufacturing Technology Consumption Bounces 26% Off Bottom
  • Economic Warfare? Europe versus Wall Street
  • Let's Chat Labor Productivity
  • Why we are headed into Depression
  • First Iceland, then the World
more

User login

  • Create new account
  • Request new password

Navigation

  • User Guide
  • News aggregator

Recent Comments

  • wow, those free flows of capital to China
    7 hours 29 min ago
  • Moody's Warns the U.S. of a sovereign credit rating downgrade
    9 hours 1 min ago
  • Maybe Against Debt Striuctured by Cows?
    9 hours 1 min ago
  • China's water pistol
    10 hours 22 min ago
  • Considering we've had zero regulation, even fines
    10 hours 55 min ago
  • What would it be downgraded against?
    11 hours 21 min ago
  • to the new people + EP hit 1 million reads
    1 day 40 min ago
  • I'm On It
    1 day 7 hours ago
  • maybe you can find out what exactly that money was about
    1 day 11 hours ago
  • JPMorgan Bails Out Lehman After They Brought it Down?
    1 day 14 hours ago
  • Geithner Was Behind the Wheel on This Also
    1 day 16 hours ago
  • that is a butt load of money
    1 day 18 hours ago
  • recession, depression lets call the whole thing off
    1 day 19 hours ago
  • Frightened at the Top
    1 day 19 hours ago
  • Strange Happenings
    1 day 21 hours ago
  • Calling all rebels.
    2 days 5 hours ago
  • Participate? Oy!
    2 days 6 hours ago
  • I think there is a huge cultural problem
    3 days 2 hours ago
  • Interesting tidbit of info about Wellpoint (Anthem BC)
    3 days 6 hours ago
  • understand, the never ending "percent change" tunnel vision
    3 days 7 hours ago

Poll

Populist Du Jour

  • The Privatization of Everything

Vox Populi

  • Holy Cow Batman! SIGTARP Barofsky says U.S. on the hook for $23.7 Trillion in bail out!
  • Subprime meltdown over; now comes the bad news
  • The Deflationary Recession of 2009?
  • The Panic of 2008: a turning point
  • Text of Bail Out Act Before Congress - TAKE ACTION NOW!
  • U3 and U6 Unemployment during the Great Depression
  • Scientist Who Laid Ground Work for Nobel Prize Drives a Bus, Can't get a Job

Active forum topics

  • Moody's Warns the U.S. of a sovereign credit rating downgrade
  • Paul Krugman Takes on China's Currency Manipulation
more

Atlanta Fed's Macroblog

  • A look at the income-side estimates of growth
  • Consumer credit, credit availability and The Credit CARD Act
more

BEA

  • U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, January 2010
more

iMFdirect

  • Rethinking the IMF’s Mandate: Asking for Your Views
  • This Time It’s Different
more

CBO

  • Estimate of the Budgetary Effects of the Senate-Passed Health Bill
  • Presentation on “Fiscal Policy Choices” to the National Association for Business Economics
more

powells

GAO

  • GAO-10-406, Defense Acquisitions: Opportunities Exist to Position Army's Ground Force Modernization Efforts for Success, March 15, 2010
  • GAO-10-365, Electronic Government: Implementation of the Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act of 2006, March 12, 2010
more

Instapopulist

  • Paul Krugman Takes on China's Currency Manipulation
  • Moody's Warns the U.S. of a sovereign credit rating downgrade
  • In case you missed the Michael Lewis CBS 60 Minutes interview...
  • China bidding on yet more American Infrastructure - this time High Speed Rail
  • Dodd to release Senate Financial Reform Bill Monday, a few details now
  • Manufacturing & Trade Inventories & Sales for January 2010
  • EU to bail out Greece
more

Calculated Risk

  • Financial Regulatory Reform Update
  • NAHB Builder Confidence declines in March
more

Naked Capitalism

  • Wray: Timmy-Gate: Did Geithner Help Hide Lehman Fraud?
  • Guest Post: Broken Incentives – “People See What They’re Incentivized to See. If You Pay Someone Not to See the Truth, They Won’t See the Truth”
more

Paul Krugman

  • Curveball
  • A Different Kind of Housing Puzzle
more

dorgan

The Baseline Scenario

  • Senator Kaufman: Fraud Still At The Heart Of Wall Street
  • A Few Words on Lehman
more

Eyes on Trade

  • Make or Break: Obama Officials Start Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) Talks Today - First Obama Trade Deal?
  • GTW Director Lori Wallach Appears on Bloomberg TV
more

Econbrowser

  • Whither the Yuan?
  • 2010 Econbrowser NCAA tournament challenge
more

TradeReform.org

  • 130 Members of Congress Push for Action on China Currency Manipulation
  • OP-ED: Taking On China and Its Currency
more

EconomPic

  • Industrial Production Grows Despite Weather
  • China "Officially" Largest Treasury Holder
more

Economist's View

  • The Economics of Aggregation
  • Reich: Health Care and the Political Lessons of History
more

Economy in Crisis

  • Brewing up a Deadly, Toxic Recipe for Economic Disaster
  • Sarkozy to Take Tanker Fight to Obama
more

The Big Picture

  • Happy Anniversary, Green Shoots
  • It Helps to be Rich
more

Credit Slips

  • Thank You Anna Gelpern
  • Debt and the People, Part II: The Hot ... and Concluding Disquietudes
more

Manufacture This

  • Tight times for mill workers in Maine, Part 7
  • Coverage of EPI Forum on China and Currency Manipulation
more

Alan Tonelson

  • Krugman Out-Hawks Even Congress' China Critics on Currency Issues
  • Trade deficit dips; exports, imports fall
more

black swan

Beat The Press

  • Pension Fund Cashes in Treasury Bonds: AP Screams "Crisis"
  • NYT Spreads Nonsense on China Buying U.S. Debt
more

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

  • The Rise of Sovereign Risk in Advanced Economies
  • RGE's Weekly Roundup
more

Zero Hedge

  • Private Equity’s Trojan Horse of Debt?
  • Strategy And Tactics In The Iran-Israel Theater - How It Would Happen: A 114 Page Close Look
more

The Mess That Greenspan Made

  • An even longer schedule of loan resets
  • The China currency debate heats up
more

Styles Checks-125 x 125- Animiated Marvel Banner

Tax Justice Network

  • TJN event in Switzerland
  • IMF: trillions lost offshore
more

Brad Delong

  • Worth Reading #7: Maria Farrell on the Church Abuse Scandal (Best Non-Economics Thing of March 15, 2010)
  • Worth Reading #6: How to Obsess About Health Care Reform (March 15, 2010)
more

New Deal 2.0

  • Progressive Values and Financial Reform
  • De facto bailout for Freddie and Frannie?
more

Steve Keen's Debtwatch

  • Final T-Shirts
  • Everyone’s a critic…
more

Pension Pulse

  • Private Equity’s Trojan Horse of Debt?
  • Another Great Depression Coming Soon?
more

Angry Bear

  • Economics Bloggers Forum
  • John Quiggin Scores Again
more

Robert Reich

  • Health Care 2010 and 1994, and the Political Lessons of History
  • The Sham Recovery
more

Noslaves.com

  • Jim Crow in Silicon Valley
  • Finally, a State saves money by hiring Americans and getting rid of H-1Bs
more

Financial Armageddon

  • Krugman: Out-of-Touch with Reality
  • Forget About 'Black Swans'...
more

Small Business and Jobs

Submitted by Robert Oak on Sun, 10/11/2009 - 13:59.
  • job creation
  • SBA
  • small business
  • underemployment

A very nasty small business job creation graph by the Atlanta Fed caught my eye. Below are the number of jobs lost by small businesses. The blue is small businesses less than 50 employees. Now look at the job creation and destruction for this recession, 45%.

small business job growth atlanta fed
Src: Atlanta Fed. Click graph to enlarge

This table also shows small businesses with less than 500 employees are responsible for 65% of the job growth for the last 16 years.

Did you know small business generates most of the U.S. innovation, intellectual property and hires a good 40% of all technical workers? So, not only is small business the engine of job growth, it is also the jobs of the future manufacturing hub.

Current Small Business problems are outlined in this speech by the New York Fed bank President:

For small business borrowers, there are three problems.

First, the fundamentals of their businesses have often deteriorated because of the length and severity of the recession—making many less creditworthy.

Second, some sources of funding for small businesses—credit card borrowing and home equity loans—have dried up as banks have responded to rising credit losses in these areas by tightening credit standards.

Third, small businesses have few alternative sources of funds. They are too small to borrow in the capital markets and the Small Business Administration programs are not large enough to accommodate more than a small fraction of the demand from this sector.

(You might read the entire speech for Dudley mentions deflationary pressures, again due to the high unemployment rate, thus repressing wages, how the Stimulus is temporary and he mentions the risk of a double-dip recession).

To bring home this crisis, here is an Arkansas news article about one small business being denied a loan:

Chris Knodle approached a dozen local banks for a business startup loan earlier this year armed with a stellar credit score and a 35 percent down payment.

“No thanks,” loan officers responded.

Knodle eventually got the approval he needed from a larger regional bank, which allowed him to open a Golf USA franchise in Fayetteville in June.

“We ultimately decided to do the Small Business Administration loan, but we were hoping to avoid those hoops with a conventional commercial business loan,” Knodle said.

SBA loans carry a 90 percent government guarantee and are more expensive for the borrower, who pays a premium for that guarantee.

Knodle is not alone, according to Larry Brian, director for the Small Business Development and Technology Center at the University of Arkansas. He said it’s nearly impossible for borrowers to get a business startup loan in the current economic environment, despite recent government intervention.

President Barack Obama set his sights on thawing the frozen credit markets for small businesses six months ago. He promised $15 billion to boost bank liquidity and shore up secondary credit markets for Small Business Administration loans. The plan also called for fee reductions for borrowers.

Knodle said the 3 percent monthly premium was waived as part of the government’s recent intervention, but he still incurred $1,500 in closing fees.

So, a SBA loan is more expensive and on top of it, small business are being shut out of lending by conventional financial institutions.

A Coleman survey claims the small business loan default rate was 12% in 2008:

The Coleman Report, which provides lenders with small business data and SBA news, calculated the failure rate by dividing the number of loans liquidated or charged-off last year by the total number of loans made through the SBA's flagship lending programs.

Last year's failure rate is a sharp increase over past years. In 2004, the SBA loan failure rate was 2.4%, but it has increased each year since, rising to 8.4% in 2007, according to Coleman's calculations.

The 2008 failure rate of nearly 12% covers the fiscal year that ended on Sept. 30. In that year, the SBA's 7(a) and 504 programs approved 78,324 loans, totaling $18.2 billion.

In Q2, 2009, small business loans were down 57%.

Typically half of all small businesses fail in the first 5 years. Yet in this recession, small business bankruptcy rates increased 81% from Jun 2008 to June 2009.

So, anyone else seeing a catch-22 here on job creation? Anyone else seeing U.S. small business needs a government sponsored venture capital group, to offer grants, resources, guidance to stop the small business hemorrhage?

Forget manipulative tax credits on new hires (well, don't forget it, it's one minor good idea). Create a government sponsored venture capital team that literally listens to business plans, proof of concept demonstrations and helps small businesses grow. Fix the SBA. The SBA is obviously not doing that great of a job, with a 50% fail rate under normal economic conditions. It's also obvious the U.S. needs major job growth and business engine growth initiatives, since the America now needs an astounding 250,000 jobs per month for 5 years just just to get back to a 5% unemployment rate!

We need so much more to foster job creation, innovation and good old fashioned success as fast as possible. Just enabling more debt ain't gonna cut it on this one. If Soros can do it, start a venture capital fund with strict conditions, but also help and guidance, so can the U.S. government.

  • Robert Oak's blog
  • addthis
  • Email this Blog entry
  • 2 points

Venture Capital investing drops to lowest since 2003

Submitted by Robert Oak on Mon, 10/12/2009 - 11:44.

This is really bad news. VC funding drops to 2003 levels.

Remember, a lot of VCs were burned during the dot con era, so they pulled really back in 2001-2003 time frame.

This is why I think the U.S. government plain needs to get into the VC business.

The SBA is some bureaucratic nightmare beast, where one almost needs to specialize in the SBA to figure out how to get anywhere. Applying for government contracts...almost another area of specialization due to all of the bureaucracy. Who the hell has the time or ability to figure out this maze of "gotchas"?

They need to not only have some sort of WPA style program, they need to jump start job growth and the economy with new business ventures.

This has been true for some time, but basically investors currently seem to have "herd think" which is the only markets where one can make huge money is in emerging economies......they are not looking at the good ole U.S.A. as an "emerging economy" of the future. They should. The U.S. is just throwing away it's own talent, it's own citizens, it's own ingenuity, which needs some serious capital infusions as well as guidance and mentoring, resources.

Not yet rated.
  • reply

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
Input format
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <b> <address> <blockquote> <br> <caption> <center> <code> <dd> <del> <div> <dl> <dt> <em> <font> <h2> <h3> <h4> <h5> <h6> <hr> <i> <img> <li> <ol> <p> <pre> <span> <strong> <sub> <sup> <table> <tbody> <td> <tfoot> <th> <thead> <tr> <u> <ul> <tr>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Image links with 'rel="lightbox"' in the <a> tag will appear in a Lightbox when clicked on.
CAPTCHA
This question is for testing whether you are a human visitor and to prevent automated spam submissions.
Image CAPTCHA
Copy the characters (respecting upper/lower case) from the image.

Syndicate

Syndicate content

Add to Technorati Favorites

Privacy Policy

Google Delicious Yahoo! Bloglines Newsgator MSN AOL Rojo Newsburst RSSFwd
© Economic Populist 2008-2009