July 2009

China's Quest for Oil

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Is China trying to capture the oil market?

From Fueling the Dragon:

With 1.3 billion people, the People's Republic of China is the world's most populous country and the second largest oil consumer, behind the U.S. In recent years, China has been undergoing a process of industrialization and is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. With real gross domestic product growing at a rate of 8-10% a year, China's need for energy is projected to increase by 150 percent by 2020. to sustain its growth China requires increasing amounts of oil. Its oil consumption grows by 7.5% per year, seven times faster than the U.S.

A new record we don't want to see - 1.53 million foreclosures in 6 months

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While we debate charts, graphs, a stark headline just hit the aggregators, Foreclosure Filings in U.S. Reach Record 1.5 Million :

U.S. foreclosure filings hit a record in the first half, a sign that job losses and falling property prices deepened the housing recession, according to RealtyTrac Inc.

More than 1.5 million properties received a default or auction notice or were seized by banks in the six months through June, the Irvine, California-based seller of default data said today in a statement. That’s a 15 percent increase from the year earlier. One in 84 U.S. households received a filing.

One in 84 is 1.2% of all homeowners in the United States just were foreclosed on in just a 6 month period!

The Deflationary Bust is Bottoming? June 2009 edition

This is a continuation of a monthly series that up until now has been called The Deflationary Bust Deepens. Each month I have been tracking the progress of this first full-fledged deflationary bust in over 50 years, comparing the progress of deflationary consumer and producer prices now with the pattern of the 5 deflationary busts between 1920-1950, including the Great Depression.

Yesterday morning the BLS reported that consumer inflation increased +0.7% (seasonally adjusted) in June, (rising 0.9% non-seasonally adjusted). Year-over-year prices have fallen - 1.4% (NSA) into deflation. YoY consumer deflation is only surpassed by 1949's -2.9% in the post-Depression era.

The Logical Flaw

Oops! 

Looks like the Admin, Congress and the FASB have cross purposes. Now the banks have a real problem.  Banks can't execute mortgage mods without adjusting the values (read losses) on their balance sheets.

 

Why, after arguing for banks to have more leeway, is Congress now pushing back? Because many government responses to the financial crisis are more about manipulating prices -- and behavior -- than truly getting markets back on their feet.

Could Malthus have been wrong?

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New Scientist reports on two studies released last week that seem to indicate that the real problem in human population isn't really overpopulation and overuse of the world's resources- but rather mere politics. The two studies, commissioned during last year's incredible world wide inflation in food prices, show that certain areas of the world are extremely underdeveloped.

What Did SEC Chair Shapiro Say at Yesterday's Hearing?

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SEC Chair Shapiro gave testimony in Congressional hearing SEC Oversight: Current State and Agenda

Parsing over the testimony, which EP readers should also scan via the link, some interesting sections.

Firstly it appears the SEC will monitor credit ratings agencies, and appear to be going after paid for ratings requests, which was at the heart of financial crisis. This Friday Night Video has some detailed video interviews, clips on credit ratings agencies and how they enabled the financial meltdown.

Vanity Fair Article on AIG Financial Products

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EP readers might be interested in a new Vanity Fair article, The Man Who Crashed the World, describing from an inside view, Joseph Cassano, that evil doer head of AIGFP.

Almost a year after A.I.G.’s collapse, despite a tidal wave of outrage, there still has been no clear explanation of what toppled the insurance giant. The author decides to ask the people involved—the silent, shell-shocked traders of the A.I.G. Financial Products unit—and finds that the story may have a villain, whose reign of terror over 400 employees brought the company, the U.S. economy, and the global financial system to their knees.

Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization - A Contraction is a Contraction

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The spin just keeps on coming. Bloomberg on today's industrial production 0.4% contraction:

Industrial production shrank less than forecast and a New York regional factory gauge showed the smallest contraction in more than a year, signaling manufacturing is on the verge of stabilizing.

Folks, here is the Federal Reserve's Industrial Production & Capacity release:

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