January 2010

FDIC may take on Executive Pay

The headline, FDIC eyes linking levies to bank pay, is yet another media sound byte which might be yet another PR stunt with no action.

US banks’ contributions to a multi-billion dollar fund that insures depositors’ savings could be linked to regulators’ assessment of bank pay plans, under preliminary discussions being held by top banking watchdogs.

So, there is no commitment or comment. At least the FDIC is considering such a move, while Congress does nothing.

Why we aren't looking at a new bull market

It's easy to take a couple months of charts and declare that the future will continue the present trend. That's what the Green Shooters/Recovery crowd is doing.

But when you step back and put things into historical perspective, when you analyze the fundamentals of the economy, then it changes everything. It smooths out all the temporary stimulus created by the federal government that is destined to run out soon.

Oh No! Senator Dorgan Please Don't Go!

This is just awful! Senator Byron Dorgan is announcing he will not run in 2010 for his Senate seat.

Dorgan, a moderate who was first elected to the Senate in 1992 after serving a dozen years in the House, said he reached the decision after discussing his future with family over the holidays. Dorgan, 67, said he "began to wrestle with the question of whether making a commitment to serve in the Senate seven more years was the right thing to do."

"Although I still have a passion for public service and enjoy my work in the Senate, I have other interests and I have other things I would like to pursue outside of public life," he said in a statement.

Pending Home Sales - down 16%

I gotta laugh because a host of economists now are quite upset that the never ending attempts to re-inflate housing bubbles just isn't going to happen. How long can one's denial last?

Pending Home Sales dropped 16% from last month. It's amusing how Realtor.com tries to paint the news a little better:

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in November, fell 16.0 percent to 96.0 from an upwardly revised 114.3 in October, but is 15.5 percent higher than November 2008 when it was 83.1.

pending home salesThere is a video interview on Realtor.com discussing projections and once again, surprise, surprise, the reality that people need good stable jobs to buy homes pops up.

Icelanders Revolt over paying foreigners while they foot the bill

The Iceland Parliament passed legislation to pay back the U.K. and the Netherlands money lost in the Icesave high interest deposits.

Icelanders think differently. Not surprising since they will foot the bill for $5 billion dollars. For some background, see Iceland Freezes Over on some details of their economic implosion.

Earlier this week parliament approved the amended bill to reimburse Britain and the Netherlands for the amount, which was lost by savers in both countries in 2008 who deposited funds in high-interest "Icesave" online savings accounts.

But the president has yet to sign the bill into law and 56,089 people, who represent 23 percent of the island nation's electorate, have signed the petition, the organizers said.

Fed considers QE 2.0

This explains why the dollar dropped so much yesterday.

(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is discussing re-entering the mortgage-backed securities market later this year if its buying power is needed to hold down interest rates, Market News said on Tuesday in a story citing Fed officials.
The $5 trillion agency mortgage-backed securities market may weaken when last year's biggest buyer, the Federal Reserve, ends its $1.25 trillion agency MBS purchasing program at the end of the first quarter of 2010.
Fed officials, however, "are prepared to contemplate changes if need be, depending on conditions in the economy, housing finance and in financial markets more broadly," Market News said in a story written by Steven Beckner.

Public Pension Funds $2 Trillion Short

This is quite a story, Public Pension Funds $2 trillion short and it's due in part to accounting, according to Orin Krama, chair of the New Jersey Investment council.

The accounting treatment of public retirement plans is the political leper colony of government accounting. It is a no-go zone

It's also due to poor returns and because the accounting results in overestimating returns. It seems pension funds use an 8% rate of return for future estimates and even if that number was used, Krama says funds are still $1 trillion short.

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