February 2010

So much for the Volcker Rule

Something told you that this was too good to be true, right? Well, you were right to doubt that a good idea would ever see the light of day when it comes to Wall Street.

A proposal by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker to limit bank’s proprietary trading will be either be dropped or significantly modified in the Senate, lawmakers and staffers told dealReporter.
Senate Banking Committee ranking member Richard Shelby (R-AL) said he opposes the so-called Volcker rule and the Obama administration’s call to levy a USD 90bn tax on banks. His comments come as House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) predicted the proposals outlined by President Obama could be law within six months.

It's time to live within our means once again

The president had some bold words for the American public earlier this week. He said things that some people didn't want to hear. He talked about responsibility and sacrifices.

"We simply cannot continue to spend as if deficits don't have consequences, as if waste doesn't matter, as if the hard-earned tax dollars of the American people can be treated like Monopoly money, as if we can ignore this challenge for another generation.
". . . It's time to save what we can, spend what we must and live within our means once again."

- President Obama, 2010

After saying these bold words he then presented Congress with a plan for the largest deficit in American history. I guess politicians are immune from irony.

First of all, let's break down the budget itself.

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Obama Releases 2011 Budget

President Obama released his Fiscal Year 2011 Budget. Fiscal Year begins on October 1. The budget includes $3.8 trillion in spending and projects a $2.6 trillion in revenue for a projected budget deficit of $1.26 trillion. The federal deficit for FY 2010 is projected to be $1.56 trillion.

There is a lot of information to sift through but here are a few highlights:

1) Includes additional "Stimulus" spending in the form of "small business" tax credits.

2) The elimination of the Bush II - era upper income tax cuts.

3) The start of a spending "Freeze" (or "slushie" as Prof. Delong calls it) on non-security discretionary spending.

Manufacturing ISM for January 2010 - 58.4%

The January 2010 ISM for manufacturing was released today and PMI was in at 58.4%. Even employment plans are above 50 and had a 3.1% change. A value above 50 in the ISM means growth.

I think this is the first indicator above December 2007 levels, the official start of this recession, so this is a very good, sign of life report.

U.S. Manufacturing, Hire America & Buy American

Want to see some damning statistics? Read this paragraph, taken from The Plight of American Manufacturing.

Manufacturing employment dropped to 11.7 million in October 2009, a loss of 5.5 million or 32 percent of all manufacturing jobs since October 2000.  The last time fewer than 12 million people worked in the manufacturing sector was in 1941.  In October 2009, more people were officially unemployed (15.7 million) than were working in manufacturing.

See what bad trade deals and global labor arbitrage bring us?

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