August 2012

Factory Orders Decline, -0.5% for June 2012

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report shows a -0.5% new orders decrease for June. The last three of four months in manufacturing new orders have shown declines. May revised down, from +0.7% to +0.5%. This Census statistical release is called Factory Orders by the press and covers both durable and non-durable manufacturing orders, shipments and inventories.

ISM - Manufacturing Contracts for the 2nd Month in a Row - PMI 49.8% for July 2012

The July 2012 ISM Manufacturing Survey PMI increased, +0.1 percentage points, to 49.8%, but is still in contraction, the 2nd month in a row. Previously PMI showed 34 months of growth and this month's PMI shows June was not a fluke. In July 2009 the PMI registered 49%. Employment this month dropped -4.6 percentage points and new orders are still in contraction.

 

Federal Reserve's Debbie Downer FOMC Statement

debbiedownerFor those once again thinking they were getting their crack cocaine, quantitative easing, once again they are disappointed.

The FOMC statement showed no change in policy from the Federal Reserve. For the rest of us, the FOMC statement acknowledges our crappy economy.

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June suggests that economic activity decelerated somewhat over the first half of this year. Growth in employment has been slow in recent months, and the unemployment rate remains elevated. Business fixed investment has continued to advance. Household spending has been rising at a somewhat slower pace than earlier in the year. Despite some further signs of improvement, the housing sector remains depressed. Inflation has declined since earlier this year, mainly reflecting lower prices of crude oil and gasoline, and longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable.

Additionally the Fed doesn't expect things to really improve:

ADP Employment Report - 163,000 Private Sector Jobs for July 2012

ADP, released their proprietary private payrolls jobs report. This month ADP is reporting a gain of 163,000 private sector jobs in July. June 2012 was revised down by 4,000 to 172,000 additional private payrolls. In contrast, the BLS reported 84,000 private sector jobs for June 2012.

FHFA Firestorm!

firestormThe FHFA just pooped on half a million Americans and denied those underwater on their mortgage to obtain partial debt forgiveness. Millions of American homeowners holding out hope are outraged. Acting FHFA director Ed DeMarco:

Today, I provided a response to numerous congressional inquiries as to whether the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) would direct Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to implement the Home Affordable Modification Program Principal Reduction Alternative (HAMP PRA). After extensive analysis of the revised HAMP PRA, including the determination by the Treasury Department to begin using Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) monies to make incentive payments to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, FHFA has concluded that the anticipated benefits do not outweigh the costs and risks.

Given our multiple responsibilities to conserve the assets of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, maximize assistance to homeowners to avoid foreclosures, and minimize the expense of such assistance to taxpayers, FHFA concluded that HAMP PRA did not clearly improve foreclosure avoidance while reducing costs to taxpayers relative to the approaches in place today.

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