November 2015

September Trade Revisions Will Add 11 Basis Points to 3rd quarter GDP

Our trade deficit fell by 15.0% in September, virtually reversing the 15.6% jump in August, as the value of our exports rose and the value of our imports fell.  The Census report on our international trade in goods and services for September indicated that our seasonally adjusted goods and services trade deficit fell by $7.2 billion to $41.8 billion in September from an August deficit which was revised from $48.3 billion to $48.0 billion.

October Is A Positive Unemployment Report

The October unemployment report is a pleasant surprise in comparison to recent months.  Less people were dropped out of the labor force for the month, a welcome change.  The labor participation rate though did not change from the October 1977 record lows.  The official unemployment rate did tick down a tenth of a percentage point to 5.0%.  Overall, this month's report is a surprise on the positive side.

 

The ADP Employment Report Defies Recent Economic Trends

ADP's proprietary private payrolls jobs report gives a monthly gain of 182,000 private sector jobs for October 2015.  Manufacturing jobs though are not good with another -2,000 reported lost.  Construction on the other hand really grew with 35,000 jobs gained.  The goods sector overall had the best month since last January.

Factory Orders Comes Crashing the Economic Party

The Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders report shows factory new orders declined by -1.0% for September.  In August, new factory orders plunged by -2.1%.  Durable goods dropped by -1.2%.  In August, Durable goods slid down by -2.9%  Transportation new orders lead the decrease as they plunged by -3.1%.  Inventories also contracted again.

3rd Qtr Reports from the Oil Patch; Weekly Stats and RIg Counts

Oil prices rose last week while natural gas prices fell, but pricing for the later was complicated by the Wednesday expiration of the contract for November delivery of gas, meaning that as of Wednesday afternoon the quoted price for natural gas was for the higher priced contract for December delivery.

Pages