consumer confidence

Consumer Confidence for July 2010 50.4

The consumer confidence index dropped 3.9 points to 50.4. Last month consumer confidence dropped a revised 8.4 points (54.3). (How can one revise a survey, unless you "seasonally adjust" for heat induced fussiness? It's a survey man, not raw economic data!) The only ones of the 5,000 people surveyed who think jobs are plentiful must be the delusional, 4.3%. Only 14.3% expect the number of jobs available to increase.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® which had declined sharply in June, retreated further in July. The Index now stands at 50.4 (1985=100), down from 54.3 in June. The Present Situation Index decreased to 26.1 from 26.8. The Expectations Index declined to 66.6 from 72.7 last month.

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions was more downbeat in July. Those saying conditions are “bad” increased to 43.6 percent from 41.0 percent, however, those saying business conditions are “good” increased to 9.0 percent from 8.4 percent. Consumers’ appraisal of the job market was also more negative. Those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased to 45.8 percent from 43.5 percent, while those saying jobs are “plentiful” remained unchanged at 4.3 percent.

Consumer Confidence Nosedives in June 2010, down 9.8 points

The Consumer Confidence Index cliff dove 9.8 points in June.

us-consumer-confi-062910.jpg

From the Press release:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® which had been on the rise for three consecutive months, declined sharply in June. The Index now stands at 52.9 (1985=100), down from 62.7 in May. The Present Situation Index decreased to 25.5 from 29.8. The Expectations Index declined to 71.2 from 84.6 last month.

Those saying conditions are “good” decreased to 8.0 percent from 9.7 percent, while those saying business conditions are “bad” increased to 42.4 percent from 39.5 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also less favorable. Those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased to 44.8 percent from 43.9 percent, while those saying jobs are “plentiful” decreased to 4.3 percent from 4.6 percent.

Consumers’ short-term outlook, which had improved significantly last month, turned more pessimistic in June. Those anticipating an improvement in business conditions over the next six months decreased to 17.2 percent from 22.8 percent, while those expecting conditions will worsen rose to 14.9 percent from 11.9 percent.

Consumer confidence plunges to lowest level since 1983

If there is a recovery going on, the public is unaware of it.

Consumer confidence took a swan dive in February to its lowest point since April, according to a monthly poll released Tuesday.
The index plunged to 46 from January’s 56.5, following several months of boosts, according to the Conference Board. The economy is stable only when the reading surpasses 90.
The New York-based nonprofit said that consumers are in a generally sour mood, due partly to pessimism about job prospects and income worries. The anxiety would likely lead to curbed spending, the board said.

The present situation index, which measures consumers’ feelings about the current environment, also tumbled. The drop to 19.4 from 25.2 hit the index’s lowest level since it reached 17.5 in February 1983.

The subtopics of this poll are bad across the board. It seems the public just doesn't buy the happy talk.
One reason for that might be because mass layoffs are increasing.

Update: Robert Oak here. Below are additional details and opinion on consumer confidence coming from me.

Consumer Confidence for December 2009

Consumer Confidence for December 2009 increased to 52.9 which is a 2.3 point increase from last month.

Expectations or what does the future hold increased to 75.6 from 70.3 in November.

But present situation confidence metric for December 2009, is 18.8, a drop from 21.2 last month and is at a 26 year low, with 1983 being the bottom reading of 17.5.

Consumer Confidence - Is this index overweighted?

Oops, it dropped. Everyone run for the hills.

Conference Board:

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index™, which had improved considerably in May, retreated in June.

The Index now stands at 49.3 (1985=100), down from 54.8 in May. The Present Situation Index decreased to 24.8 from 29.7.

The Expectations Index declined to 65.5 from 71.5 in May.

consumer confidence June 2009

The job outlook was also more pessimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead decreased to 17.4 percent from 19.3 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased to 27.3 percent from 25.6 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes declined to 9.8 percent from 10.8 percent.

The Spin is In (not)

An Op-Ed in Sundays New York TimesThe Economy Is Still at the Brink really calls out what is so wrong with politics generally.

Isn't not the public relations man, it's the policy

Mr. Obama thinks that the way to revive the economy is to restore confidence in it. If the mood is right, the capital will flow. But this belief is dangerously misguided. We are sympathetic to the extraordinary challenge the president faces, but if we’ve learned anything at all two years into the worst financial crisis of our lifetimes, it is that a capital-markets system this dependent on public confidence is a shockingly inadequate foundation upon which to rest our economy.